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WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0693 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 693 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 232235Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 535 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this evening across southeast Kansas and ongoing storms will move east-southeastward toward southwest Missouri. The storm environment initially favors supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail near 2.5 inches in diameter, and possibly a tornado or two. Some clustering/upscale growth will lead to an increase in the potential for damaging gusts to 70 mph by late evening/early tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Joplin MO to 50 miles south of Chanute KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690...WW 691...WW 692... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0692 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 692 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..09/23/23 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 692 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-021-027-035-037-041-061-063-071-077-079-081-083-087-091- 097-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-125-131-133-135- 143-145-147-232340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES KAY LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 692 SEVERE TSTM OK 232105Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially, an isolated supercell may continue to pose a large hail risk across eastern Oklahoma over the next few hours, while additional and more numerous storms will likely develop by early evening across northern/central Oklahoma. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north northeast of Bartlesville OK to 25 miles west of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690...WW 691... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0691 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 691 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..09/23/23 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-037-049-063-067-069- 073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-121-123-125-127-147-151-153- 157-161-169-171-181-187-189-195-197-232340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR AUDUBON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW DALLAS EMMET FLOYD FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN HUMBOLDT JASPER KOSSUTH MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS POLK POWESHIEK SAC STORY TAMA WARREN WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 691 SEVERE TSTM IA 231835Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Iowa * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially, a cluster of storms across north-central Iowa may produce large hail and/or locally damaging winds. Additional storms are expected to across the region later this afternoon into evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Mason City IA to 25 miles south of Des Moines IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..09/23/23 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC091-103-107-121-209-232340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC013-015-025-033-037-041-047-053-061-083-089-095-101-107-115- 117-141-159-165-177-185-195-232340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES BENTON CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY COOPER DAVIESS HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINN LIVINGSTON MORGAN PETTIS PLATTE RAY ST. CLAIR SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 690 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 231800Z - 240200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western and Central Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and locally damaging winds this afternoon, with a secondary round of storms expected across the region later this afternoon into evening, which will likely include additional storm development to the west of the early afternoon storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northeast of Chillicothe MO to 55 miles south southeast of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2187 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa and far northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232158Z - 240000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms across southeast Nebraska will likely intensify over the coming hours, and will pose a risk for large hail and severe wind. Watch issuance may be needed to address this threat. DISCUSSION...Over the past 30-60 minutes, a cluster of cumulus has shown steady deepening on the intersection of the cold front and a subtle surface trough. A few deeper towers are noted in IR and low-level water-vapor imagery, which suggests convective initiation is probable within the next hour or so. 50-60 knot winds between 6-8 km AGL is supporting elongated hodographs with effective bulk shear values between 40-50 knots. This kinematic environment should support organized convection, including the potential for splitting supercells (though the propensity for splitting cells is somewhat uncertain given strong ascent along the front, which may foster somewhat quick upscale growth). The thermodynamic environment immediately downstream is becoming increasingly supportive for robust convection as surface temperatures warm into the upper 70s; however, cooler temperatures further east into southern IA/northern MO in the wake of prior convection cast some uncertainty onto the downstream intensity. Regardless, the severe threat is expected to increase in the coming hours across southeast NE into adjacent areas of IA and MO, and watch issuance is probable. ..Moore/Thompson.. 09/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39999703 40469708 40859715 41009717 41989565 41979514 41689476 41019438 40309443 39939501 39779624 39759669 39999703 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0407 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A deepening trough across the western US will result in amplification of an eastward shifting ridge across the central/eastern US early next week. Cooler conditions, increasing relative humidity, and potential for widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest. Windy and dry conditions will be possible across the Great Basin and Northern Rockies, where little to no rainfall is expected. Beyond mid-week, breezy conditions may continue as persistent troughing brings waves of stronger mid-level flow across the west. ...Great Basin/Northern Rockies... An increase in south to southwest winds is expected for D3 - Monday across the Great Basin in response to increasing mid-level flow overspreading the region. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across northern Nevada, southeastward Oregon, and southwestern Idaho. Marginal fuels within this region will preclude the need to include Critical probabilities, though Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as further drying of fuels occurs with forecast strong winds. Lingering dry conditions will be possible on D4 - Tuesday, but winds will be much lighter mitigating the fire weather risk. For the extended period, models suggest continued troughing across the west will bring cool and wet conditions across the Pacific Northwest into Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Further drying will be likely across the southwest, with potential for breezy conditions. Overall, confidence is low in where any dry/breezy conditions will overlap receptive fuels along with potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2023 20:40:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2023 21:35:55 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 232039 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023 An area of disturbed weather located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula became rapidly better organized this morning. SSMIS microwave imagery at 1427 UTC showed that deep convection had organized into a very well-defined band, with what appeared to be a developing low-level center just to the north of the convection. Since then, 1-minute visible GOES-18 has been very helpful in confirming the development of a well-defined surface circulation. Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. The initial maximum sustained wind estimate is highly uncertain, but is based on a 30 kt Dvorak current intensity analysis from TAFB. The depression appears to be quite small, and is therefore not being well-resolved by most global models. The center of the cyclone appears to be just north of a tight band of deep convection. Its small size and an expected moderate shear environment could make the cyclone susceptible to rapid changes in intensity that are difficult to anticipate. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the model consensus for the next 48 h, most similar to the DSHP model, but still shows only slight strengthening during that time frame. After about 72 h, wind shear is expected to increase quickly, which should cause the small cyclone to weaken. The system is subsequently expected to dissipate into a trough after about 4 days. The initial motion estimate is west at 12 kt. An extensive ridge extending over most of the eastern North Pacific should keep the depression on a similar heading for the next 4 days until the system dissipates. Although the strength of the depression does not appear to be captured well by the global models, they do appear to have very reasonable track forecasts that are in good agreement with one another. The initial NHC track forecast is near the middle of the average-spread guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 13.9N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 14.3N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.7N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 14.9N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 14.3N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 14.0N 142.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023 291 FOPZ14 KNHC 232038 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 48(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 125W 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 232038 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 120.4W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 120.4W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.3N 122.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.7N 125.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.9N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.3N 136.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 14.0N 142.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 120.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 232038 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 120.4W ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 120.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight intensification is expected during the next couple of days. The system could become a tropical storm as soon as this afternoon or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Sep 23 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 13.9, -120.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes remain possible today across parts of the Upper Midwest, Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Plains. A tornado or two may also occur in parts of the coastal Mid-Atlantic. ...20Z Update... The main change made to this outlook was to trim southern portions of severe probabilities across the Mid Atlantic in tandem with the passage of Ophelia. Some uncertainty remains pertaining to the details of convective evolution across portions of the Upper Midwest, hence no changes have been made to the outlook. Though storms have reduced instability some across the MS Valley, enough heating is underway which could modify the airmass enough to support a few additional strong to severe storms. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track, with additional supercells likely to develop across southeastern KS into eastern OK and western MO with a threat for severe gusts and very large hail. A few tornadoes also remain possible, especially over far eastern SD into southern MN, where backed low-level flow supports enlarged hodographs. ..Squitieri.. 09/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023/ ...Upper Midwest/Lower Missouri Valley/Southern Plains... A cluster of storms with history of periodic large hail/severe-caliber wind gusts this morning across eastern Nebraska persists into western Iowa at midday, while generally trending downscale and a bit weaker. These storms seem likely to outpace the primary reservoir of buoyancy with greater early-day inhibition with eastward extent, but some short-term severe risk may nonetheless continue. This convection casts some uncertainty regarding the northward extent of more appreciable surface-based destabilization later today, but strong/potentially severe thunderstorm redevelopment is still expected later this afternoon near the surface wind shift/occluded front. This would primarily be the case beginning around mid/late afternoon, coincident with the approach of the upper vort/speed max over South Dakota/northern Nebraska/northwest Iowa vicinity. At least a modest corridor of severe-conducive instability may materialize especially across northwest Missouri/west-central Iowa and southwest/south-central Minnesota. Supercell-favorable hodographs will reside across much of the region, with the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes, particularly if more cloud breaks/destabilization occurs in proximity to the surface low/triple point. Farther south, another corridor of persistent convection since mid-morning has been across far eastern Kansas into northwest/western Missouri. These storms have occasionally produced severe hail, and this may continue for a time this afternoon even as warm advection/850 mb convergence weakens. The primary scenario is otherwise expected to near-frontal deep convective development late this afternoon into evening, with a moderate to strongly unstable environment, particularly to the southwest of the eastern Kansas/northwest Missouri early day storms. Steep lapse rates/ample buoyancy and enlarged hodographs will support initial supercell potential, capable of very large/damaging hail, severe wind gusts and possibly some tornado risk, with storms tending to grow upscale during the evening. CAPE will lessen somewhat with southwestward extent into north-central/northwest Texas where greater boundary-layer mixing and lesser dewpoints will be found, but with greater DCAPE and downdraft-acceleration potential in support of local wind threat. ...Mid-Atlantic States/Tidewater... Currently centered over northeast North Carolina, Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to continue to weaken as it generally moves north-northeastward through tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for latest details. Even while the system will gradually weaken, some tornado risk will focus along coastal areas of southeast Virginia toward the Delmarva today, and possibly eventually as far north as New Jersey. Any such potential is expected to generally relate to convection that can deepen/sustain and pivot toward the coast, especially if it interacts with the warm front where low-level/deep-layer shear will be maximized with surface-rooted buoyancy. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Sunday. The upper wave currently over WY is forecast to deamplify as it shifts east/northeast into the Great Lakes region. In its wake, upper ridging will become established over the central CONUS, resulting in a muted surface pressure regime with generally weak winds. Two exceptions will be the northern Plains and across the western Great Basin. Over the Dakotas, 15-20 mph gradient winds in the vicinity of the weakening surface low are likely, but cool, post-frontal temperatures will limit RH reductions. Across the western Great Basin, a deepening surface low over the northeast Pacific, juxtaposed with a building surface high over the central Rockies, will strengthen low to mid-level flow. 15-25 mph downslope winds are possible in the lee of the Sierra Nevada, and may overlap with areas of 20-25% RH; however, latest fuel analyses indicate fuels are currently not receptive across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP97):
An area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Recent
microwave imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with this system have become better organized, though it
remains unclear if a well-defined surface circulation has formed.
Regardless, further development of this system is anticipated and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days. The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph, and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Papin

WW 0689 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 689 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176 ..MOORE..09/22/23 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-033-045-069-105-123-157-161-165-222340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC033-047-102-222340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER OGLALA LAKOTA WYC005-009-011-015-027-045-222340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more