Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-end severe potential is evident on D5, possibly lingering into early D6 in parts of the south-central states. Greater conditional severe potential with potentially a more favorable synoptic pattern is evident next weekend into early next week over the South. Large-scale agreement remains strong with the ejection of a shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley early Wednesday towards the Dakotas by Thursday afternoon. A lee surface cyclone will initially deepen over the central High Plains and similarly track northeastward into MN. A broad and fast southwesterly mid-level jet will become centered from the southern Great Plains northeastward into the Midwest on Thursday. This should overlap the northern extent of a relatively confined, modifying warm-moist sector emanating north from the western Gulf. Instability progs appear rather limited amid modest mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist sector. Consensus convective signal is for thunderstorm development to increase into Thursday night within the low-level warm conveyor. Despite strong mid to upper flow, severe potential will probably remain lower-end and isolated. In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, 00Z deterministic guidance provides the illusion of consistency with the evolution of upstream shortwave troughs over the West. However, poor run-to-run continuity along with large spread within respective ensembles, both yield fairly low predictability next weekend. Still, with further increases in both the amplitude and breadth of the Gulf moisture plume and likelihood of an elevated mixed layer to support steep mid-level lapse rates (at least across TX), a more prominent severe weather episode may unfold next weekend into early next week from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-end severe potential is evident on D5, possibly lingering into early D6 in parts of the south-central states. Greater conditional severe potential with potentially a more favorable synoptic pattern is evident next weekend into early next week over the South. Large-scale agreement remains strong with the ejection of a shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley early Wednesday towards the Dakotas by Thursday afternoon. A lee surface cyclone will initially deepen over the central High Plains and similarly track northeastward into MN. A broad and fast southwesterly mid-level jet will become centered from the southern Great Plains northeastward into the Midwest on Thursday. This should overlap the northern extent of a relatively confined, modifying warm-moist sector emanating north from the western Gulf. Instability progs appear rather limited amid modest mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist sector. Consensus convective signal is for thunderstorm development to increase into Thursday night within the low-level warm conveyor. Despite strong mid to upper flow, severe potential will probably remain lower-end and isolated. In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, 00Z deterministic guidance provides the illusion of consistency with the evolution of upstream shortwave troughs over the West. However, poor run-to-run continuity along with large spread within respective ensembles, both yield fairly low predictability next weekend. Still, with further increases in both the amplitude and breadth of the Gulf moisture plume and likelihood of an elevated mixed layer to support steep mid-level lapse rates (at least across TX), a more prominent severe weather episode may unfold next weekend into early next week from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-end severe potential is evident on D5, possibly lingering into early D6 in parts of the south-central states. Greater conditional severe potential with potentially a more favorable synoptic pattern is evident next weekend into early next week over the South. Large-scale agreement remains strong with the ejection of a shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley early Wednesday towards the Dakotas by Thursday afternoon. A lee surface cyclone will initially deepen over the central High Plains and similarly track northeastward into MN. A broad and fast southwesterly mid-level jet will become centered from the southern Great Plains northeastward into the Midwest on Thursday. This should overlap the northern extent of a relatively confined, modifying warm-moist sector emanating north from the western Gulf. Instability progs appear rather limited amid modest mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist sector. Consensus convective signal is for thunderstorm development to increase into Thursday night within the low-level warm conveyor. Despite strong mid to upper flow, severe potential will probably remain lower-end and isolated. In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, 00Z deterministic guidance provides the illusion of consistency with the evolution of upstream shortwave troughs over the West. However, poor run-to-run continuity along with large spread within respective ensembles, both yield fairly low predictability next weekend. Still, with further increases in both the amplitude and breadth of the Gulf moisture plume and likelihood of an elevated mixed layer to support steep mid-level lapse rates (at least across TX), a more prominent severe weather episode may unfold next weekend into early next week from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-end severe potential is evident on D5, possibly lingering into early D6 in parts of the south-central states. Greater conditional severe potential with potentially a more favorable synoptic pattern is evident next weekend into early next week over the South. Large-scale agreement remains strong with the ejection of a shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley early Wednesday towards the Dakotas by Thursday afternoon. A lee surface cyclone will initially deepen over the central High Plains and similarly track northeastward into MN. A broad and fast southwesterly mid-level jet will become centered from the southern Great Plains northeastward into the Midwest on Thursday. This should overlap the northern extent of a relatively confined, modifying warm-moist sector emanating north from the western Gulf. Instability progs appear rather limited amid modest mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist sector. Consensus convective signal is for thunderstorm development to increase into Thursday night within the low-level warm conveyor. Despite strong mid to upper flow, severe potential will probably remain lower-end and isolated. In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, 00Z deterministic guidance provides the illusion of consistency with the evolution of upstream shortwave troughs over the West. However, poor run-to-run continuity along with large spread within respective ensembles, both yield fairly low predictability next weekend. Still, with further increases in both the amplitude and breadth of the Gulf moisture plume and likelihood of an elevated mixed layer to support steep mid-level lapse rates (at least across TX), a more prominent severe weather episode may unfold next weekend into early next week from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, diurnally maximizing across the Lower CO Valley around late afternoon Tuesday. Scant buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor to storm coverage/intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse, currently impinging on the upper ridge near western Hudson Bay, should progress nearly due south around the backside of multiple shortwave troughs just off the Atlantic coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across FL through the day. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, may aid in lower-topped thunderstorms reaching the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, diurnally maximizing across the Lower CO Valley around late afternoon Tuesday. Scant buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor to storm coverage/intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse, currently impinging on the upper ridge near western Hudson Bay, should progress nearly due south around the backside of multiple shortwave troughs just off the Atlantic coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across FL through the day. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, may aid in lower-topped thunderstorms reaching the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, diurnally maximizing across the Lower CO Valley around late afternoon Tuesday. Scant buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor to storm coverage/intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse, currently impinging on the upper ridge near western Hudson Bay, should progress nearly due south around the backside of multiple shortwave troughs just off the Atlantic coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across FL through the day. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, may aid in lower-topped thunderstorms reaching the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, diurnally maximizing across the Lower CO Valley around late afternoon Tuesday. Scant buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor to storm coverage/intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse, currently impinging on the upper ridge near western Hudson Bay, should progress nearly due south around the backside of multiple shortwave troughs just off the Atlantic coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across FL through the day. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, may aid in lower-topped thunderstorms reaching the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, diurnally maximizing across the Lower CO Valley around late afternoon Tuesday. Scant buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor to storm coverage/intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse, currently impinging on the upper ridge near western Hudson Bay, should progress nearly due south around the backside of multiple shortwave troughs just off the Atlantic coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across FL through the day. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, may aid in lower-topped thunderstorms reaching the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, diurnally maximizing across the Lower CO Valley around late afternoon Tuesday. Scant buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor to storm coverage/intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse, currently impinging on the upper ridge near western Hudson Bay, should progress nearly due south around the backside of multiple shortwave troughs just off the Atlantic coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across FL through the day. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, may aid in lower-topped thunderstorms reaching the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, diurnally maximizing across the Lower CO Valley around late afternoon Tuesday. Scant buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor to storm coverage/intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse, currently impinging on the upper ridge near western Hudson Bay, should progress nearly due south around the backside of multiple shortwave troughs just off the Atlantic coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across FL through the day. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, may aid in lower-topped thunderstorms reaching the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, diurnally maximizing across the Lower CO Valley around late afternoon Tuesday. Scant buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor to storm coverage/intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse, currently impinging on the upper ridge near western Hudson Bay, should progress nearly due south around the backside of multiple shortwave troughs just off the Atlantic coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across FL through the day. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, may aid in lower-topped thunderstorms reaching the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...South to central FL... A mid-level closed low over near the FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday will gradually decay as it evolves into a lower-amplitude open wave moving east across the peninsula and off the Atlantic coast. South of the low, the belt of fast mid-level southwesterlies will overlap the Keys/far south FL before being shunted southward through the day. Within this corridor, potential for mid-level updraft rotation would be conditionally favored in the 12-15Z period. With multiple rounds of D1 convection expected, the composite outflow/effective front should be suppressed to the FL Keys/Straits vicinity during mid to late morning. The less suppressed guidance suggests there could still be overlap with land. This would favor a strong storm or two, as the last lobe of large-scale ascent over the northeast Gulf spreads east. Overall potential appears too conditional to warrant an unconditional severe weather highlight, but bears watching in future outlooks. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D1 and decay substantially on Monday. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited, and with generally weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. A couple, low-topped discrete cells with weak updraft rotation are possible over the Sacramento Valley where modest southerly flow dominates. Small hail may occur. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...South to central FL... A mid-level closed low over near the FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday will gradually decay as it evolves into a lower-amplitude open wave moving east across the peninsula and off the Atlantic coast. South of the low, the belt of fast mid-level southwesterlies will overlap the Keys/far south FL before being shunted southward through the day. Within this corridor, potential for mid-level updraft rotation would be conditionally favored in the 12-15Z period. With multiple rounds of D1 convection expected, the composite outflow/effective front should be suppressed to the FL Keys/Straits vicinity during mid to late morning. The less suppressed guidance suggests there could still be overlap with land. This would favor a strong storm or two, as the last lobe of large-scale ascent over the northeast Gulf spreads east. Overall potential appears too conditional to warrant an unconditional severe weather highlight, but bears watching in future outlooks. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D1 and decay substantially on Monday. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited, and with generally weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. A couple, low-topped discrete cells with weak updraft rotation are possible over the Sacramento Valley where modest southerly flow dominates. Small hail may occur. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...South to central FL... A mid-level closed low over near the FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday will gradually decay as it evolves into a lower-amplitude open wave moving east across the peninsula and off the Atlantic coast. South of the low, the belt of fast mid-level southwesterlies will overlap the Keys/far south FL before being shunted southward through the day. Within this corridor, potential for mid-level updraft rotation would be conditionally favored in the 12-15Z period. With multiple rounds of D1 convection expected, the composite outflow/effective front should be suppressed to the FL Keys/Straits vicinity during mid to late morning. The less suppressed guidance suggests there could still be overlap with land. This would favor a strong storm or two, as the last lobe of large-scale ascent over the northeast Gulf spreads east. Overall potential appears too conditional to warrant an unconditional severe weather highlight, but bears watching in future outlooks. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D1 and decay substantially on Monday. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited, and with generally weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. A couple, low-topped discrete cells with weak updraft rotation are possible over the Sacramento Valley where modest southerly flow dominates. Small hail may occur. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...South to central FL... A mid-level closed low over near the FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday will gradually decay as it evolves into a lower-amplitude open wave moving east across the peninsula and off the Atlantic coast. South of the low, the belt of fast mid-level southwesterlies will overlap the Keys/far south FL before being shunted southward through the day. Within this corridor, potential for mid-level updraft rotation would be conditionally favored in the 12-15Z period. With multiple rounds of D1 convection expected, the composite outflow/effective front should be suppressed to the FL Keys/Straits vicinity during mid to late morning. The less suppressed guidance suggests there could still be overlap with land. This would favor a strong storm or two, as the last lobe of large-scale ascent over the northeast Gulf spreads east. Overall potential appears too conditional to warrant an unconditional severe weather highlight, but bears watching in future outlooks. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D1 and decay substantially on Monday. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited, and with generally weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. A couple, low-topped discrete cells with weak updraft rotation are possible over the Sacramento Valley where modest southerly flow dominates. Small hail may occur. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...South to central FL... A mid-level closed low over near the FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday will gradually decay as it evolves into a lower-amplitude open wave moving east across the peninsula and off the Atlantic coast. South of the low, the belt of fast mid-level southwesterlies will overlap the Keys/far south FL before being shunted southward through the day. Within this corridor, potential for mid-level updraft rotation would be conditionally favored in the 12-15Z period. With multiple rounds of D1 convection expected, the composite outflow/effective front should be suppressed to the FL Keys/Straits vicinity during mid to late morning. The less suppressed guidance suggests there could still be overlap with land. This would favor a strong storm or two, as the last lobe of large-scale ascent over the northeast Gulf spreads east. Overall potential appears too conditional to warrant an unconditional severe weather highlight, but bears watching in future outlooks. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D1 and decay substantially on Monday. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited, and with generally weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. A couple, low-topped discrete cells with weak updraft rotation are possible over the Sacramento Valley where modest southerly flow dominates. Small hail may occur. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...South to central FL... A mid-level closed low over near the FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday will gradually decay as it evolves into a lower-amplitude open wave moving east across the peninsula and off the Atlantic coast. South of the low, the belt of fast mid-level southwesterlies will overlap the Keys/far south FL before being shunted southward through the day. Within this corridor, potential for mid-level updraft rotation would be conditionally favored in the 12-15Z period. With multiple rounds of D1 convection expected, the composite outflow/effective front should be suppressed to the FL Keys/Straits vicinity during mid to late morning. The less suppressed guidance suggests there could still be overlap with land. This would favor a strong storm or two, as the last lobe of large-scale ascent over the northeast Gulf spreads east. Overall potential appears too conditional to warrant an unconditional severe weather highlight, but bears watching in future outlooks. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D1 and decay substantially on Monday. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited, and with generally weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. A couple, low-topped discrete cells with weak updraft rotation are possible over the Sacramento Valley where modest southerly flow dominates. Small hail may occur. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more