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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across far south Florida and the Florida Keys during the day on Monday. ...South Florida and the Keys... A mid/upper-level low initially centered near the northeast Gulf Coast is forecast to move southeastward toward the FL Peninsula and gradually weaken on Monday. In association with this system, strong thunderstorms may affect portions of the eastern Gulf, Keys, and far southern FL Peninsula overnight prior to the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. While an outflow-influenced cold front is expected to eventually move through the southern peninsula and into the Keys, some threat for strong storms may linger into Monday morning, with isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts possible. Potential for afternoon development is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as colder temperatures aloft overspread the region. ...California... Cold temperatures aloft in association with an upper-level trough near/just off the CA coast will support low-topped convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes across parts of CA on Monday. However, low-level flow/shear should diminish through the day, as an occluded cyclone initially off of the northern CA continues to weaken with time. The weakening flow should limit the potential for organized convection across the region. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 Read more

WW 0014 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MIA TO 5 ENE MIA TO 25 NNW MIA. ..MOSIER..02/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC099-041840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PALM BEACH AMZ650-651-041840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 14 TORNADO FL CW 041210Z - 041900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 14 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 710 AM until 200 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A complex of strong-severe thunderstorms is expected to sweep eastward across mainland southern FL and the Keys through early afternoon, with damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles either side of a line from 55 miles northwest of Miami FL to 20 miles west southwest of Key West FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Edwards Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...17z Update... Across southwest TX and far southeast NM, gusty winds and low humidity are expected this afternoon behind the deepening area of low pressure over east TX. Morning observations showed poor humidity recoveries below 30% extending from the Rio Grande Valley into far southeastern NM. As winds increase to 25-30 mph through the morning and early afternoon, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions will likely develop. However, area fuel moisture remains above normal from recent rainfall, limiting greater fire-weather concerns. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more