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The Mississippi Forestry Commission requested assistance from the South Central and Southeastern Wildland Fire Compacts, which includes all the southern states. Personnel and equipment are expected in coming days from Alabama, South Carolina and Tennessee. The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. National Park Service were also expected to help. Fire behavior has been explosive south of Interstate 20. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 27, 2023

Some fruits and vegetables normally sold at produce stands were nowhere to be found in Jackson as produce perished in the fields. A farmer in Smith County lamented that she lost from 25% up to 60% of various crops this growing season. She was irrigating plants that survived, costing as much as 40% more in electricity. The ground was so hard and dry in Smith County that a farmer could not disk the ground, affecting fall planting. WLBT Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 27, 2023

Plaquemines Parish has been using bottled water since June as salt water in the Mississippi River has reduced water quality. The parish will soon get reverse osmosis water purification units to filter the saltwater to yield safe drinking water. The parish will soon have units at all five of its water treatment plants and intends to have three operational in early October. Units were also being sought for St. Bernard, Orleans and Jefferson Parishes. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), Sept 27, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 27 23:45:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2202 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 2202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Areas affected...Southern Illinois and southern Indiana into Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272343Z - 280145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across southern Illinois are expected to intensify as they migrate east into the Ohio River Valley. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the more intense cells, but thunderstorm coverage and mode remains uncertain. Trends will be monitored for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a few transient attempts at convective initiation have been noted across southern IL ahead of a subtle mid-level impulse and in the vicinity of a decaying surface low. Additional attempts at CI are expected over the coming hours as isentropic ascent increases over a warm front draped from southern IL into the OH River Valley. Temperatures across the warm sector - which is bound to the east by a residual outflow boundary - have begun falling with the onset of nocturnal cooling. MLCAPE values have been falling due to this cooling, but MUCAPE values should remain near 1000 J/kg as saturation of the surface-850 mb layer increases. Additionally, weak south/southeasterly flow across the region with 30-35 knot flow aloft is supporting somewhat elongated hodographs with effective bulk shear values near 30-35 knots. Some veering in the lowest 1 km is noted in regional VWPs, which is supporting effective SRH values around 100-150 J/kg. This environment is favorable for organized convection, including the potential for a few supercells. However, several modulating factors are noted. Deep-layer shear and storm motion vectors are forecast to be largely oriented along the warm front, which should favor a tendency for upscale growth. These factors may be offset by the isolated nature of storms given the relatively weak ascent over the region, so storm mode remains somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the noted nocturnal cooling may hinder the potential for surface-based convection, limiting the tornado potential and favor large hail and severe winds as the primary hazards. Trends will continue to be monitored for the needed for a watch issuance, which may be conditional on storm coverage and organization. ..Moore/Hart.. 09/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38548523 38288487 37848482 37288516 36898588 36758649 37068764 37328846 37548904 37848943 38288944 38688888 38758804 38768588 38548523 Read more

815
ABPZ20 KNHC 272319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwestern East Pacific:
A tropical wave continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Some development of this system remains
possible over the next day or two while it moves generally westward
at about 15 mph. By late Friday, upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for further development before the system moves
into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 27 22:34:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire concerns will remain low through the extended period. The upper-level pattern will remain fairly persistent through much of the period, with troughing across the western US and ridging across the central/eastern US. The increased pressure gradient and flow aloft between these two features will keep winds breezy across the Southwest into Great Basin and across the Central Plains. Cooler temperatures, fuels near seasonal averages, and potential for precipitation will help temper fire spread potential across much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Little to no rainfall is forecast across portions of southern Arizona and western New Mexico. Periods of Elevated fire weather may be possible. Fuels within this region are near seasonal normal but multiple days of windy/dry conditions will likely lead to drying fuels. This trend will be monitored with potential for highlights in the coming days. Across the Central Plains, westerly flow across the Rockies will support strengthening lee troughing and periods of increased south to southwesterly flow across the central high plains. Relative humidity is forecast to remain above Critical thresholds, though spotty Elevated to near Critical conditions will be possible on D3 - Friday and D4 - Saturday across western Kansas/eastern Colorado. Late in the period by D8 - Wednesday, the western trough may eject eastward into the Plains. Model spread in where the surface low will develop leads to low confidence in where any windy/dry conditions will overlap. ..Thornton.. 09/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire concerns will remain low through the extended period. The upper-level pattern will remain fairly persistent through much of the period, with troughing across the western US and ridging across the central/eastern US. The increased pressure gradient and flow aloft between these two features will keep winds breezy across the Southwest into Great Basin and across the Central Plains. Cooler temperatures, fuels near seasonal averages, and potential for precipitation will help temper fire spread potential across much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Little to no rainfall is forecast across portions of southern Arizona and western New Mexico. Periods of Elevated fire weather may be possible. Fuels within this region are near seasonal normal but multiple days of windy/dry conditions will likely lead to drying fuels. This trend will be monitored with potential for highlights in the coming days. Across the Central Plains, westerly flow across the Rockies will support strengthening lee troughing and periods of increased south to southwesterly flow across the central high plains. Relative humidity is forecast to remain above Critical thresholds, though spotty Elevated to near Critical conditions will be possible on D3 - Friday and D4 - Saturday across western Kansas/eastern Colorado. Late in the period by D8 - Wednesday, the western trough may eject eastward into the Plains. Model spread in where the surface low will develop leads to low confidence in where any windy/dry conditions will overlap. ..Thornton.. 09/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon into tonight, and pose some risk for severe weather. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley... Modest destabilization is still anticipated in the wake of early showers and thunderstorms (and associated cloud cover) ahead of a weakly convergence frontal zone. Thunderstorms are still expected along this frontal zone later this evening. Cold mid-level temperatures will foster moderate buoyancy amid generally weak to moderate vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, but a supercell or two is possible as well. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/ ...Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low over the Midwest (temperatures still around -16C at 500 mb) will drift eastward over northern portions of Illinois/Indiana and southern Lake Michigan through tonight, with moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies influencing the lower Ohio Valley into Tennessee Valley. Moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg, is expected this afternoon near/south of the synoptic front and weak surface low, particularly to the west of decaying thunderstorm clusters and cloud cover that persist late this morning near/south of the Ohio River. Renewed thunderstorm development/intensification may occur across east-central Kentucky Bluegrass into the Cumberland Plateau vicinity by mid-afternoon. A couple of stronger cells may be accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts, before the storms spread into a more stable environment toward the mountains. Farther west/northwest is where somewhat more substantive boundary-layer destabilization is expected across southern portions of Illinois/Indiana into west-central Kentucky, with storms expected to increase by late afternoon and early evening. A few transient supercells could occur, but multicellular clusters capable of hail/wind are otherwise probable, potentially including some semi-organized clusters this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon into tonight, and pose some risk for severe weather. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley... Modest destabilization is still anticipated in the wake of early showers and thunderstorms (and associated cloud cover) ahead of a weakly convergence frontal zone. Thunderstorms are still expected along this frontal zone later this evening. Cold mid-level temperatures will foster moderate buoyancy amid generally weak to moderate vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, but a supercell or two is possible as well. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/ ...Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low over the Midwest (temperatures still around -16C at 500 mb) will drift eastward over northern portions of Illinois/Indiana and southern Lake Michigan through tonight, with moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies influencing the lower Ohio Valley into Tennessee Valley. Moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg, is expected this afternoon near/south of the synoptic front and weak surface low, particularly to the west of decaying thunderstorm clusters and cloud cover that persist late this morning near/south of the Ohio River. Renewed thunderstorm development/intensification may occur across east-central Kentucky Bluegrass into the Cumberland Plateau vicinity by mid-afternoon. A couple of stronger cells may be accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts, before the storms spread into a more stable environment toward the mountains. Farther west/northwest is where somewhat more substantive boundary-layer destabilization is expected across southern portions of Illinois/Indiana into west-central Kentucky, with storms expected to increase by late afternoon and early evening. A few transient supercells could occur, but multicellular clusters capable of hail/wind are otherwise probable, potentially including some semi-organized clusters this evening. Read more

Cascade Water Alliance has encouraged water conservation like Seattle Public Utilities and asked customers to use less water amid a drought. Seattle Public Utilities’ reservoirs hold less than 30% of their capacity as watersheds that typically feed the reservoirs only received 7 to 8 inches, whereas they usually receive up to 26 inches of rain between May and September. The Seattle Times (Wash.), Sept 27, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated delineation was added across western Kansas/eastern Colorado in anticipation of increasing southerly flow amid dry conditions. HREF probabilities indicate 70-90 percent of meeting Elevated criteria across the Kansas/Colorado border. Coordination with local partners indicates fuels within this region have experienced drying due to rainfall deficits over the last few weeks. See previous discussion for more information concerning Elevated concerns across southern WY and northwest CO. ..Thornton.. 09/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday across portions of southern WY and into far northwest CO. The progression of the upper wave over the Pacific Northwest will strengthen lee troughing over the northern and central High Plains over the next 48 hours. As a result, low to mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. With a dry air mass expected to already be in place by Thursday afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions are expected from northern AZ into UT, western CO, and southern WY. However, fuels across most of this region are not receptive outside of southern WY and adjacent portions of northwest CO where 30-day rainfall deficits and ERC values near the 80th percentile are noted in recent analyses. ...Western Kansas... Drier, windier deterministic solutions hint at the potential for elevated conditions across western KS Thursday afternoon. Fuels over northwest KS appear to be receptive after little rainfall over the past 30 days, and may support a fire concern. However, confidence in substantial overlap of these dry fuels with sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains limited due to spread in ensemble guidance and a noted dry bias in the upstream air mass over the southern High Plains noted in some model runs. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated delineation was added across western Kansas/eastern Colorado in anticipation of increasing southerly flow amid dry conditions. HREF probabilities indicate 70-90 percent of meeting Elevated criteria across the Kansas/Colorado border. Coordination with local partners indicates fuels within this region have experienced drying due to rainfall deficits over the last few weeks. See previous discussion for more information concerning Elevated concerns across southern WY and northwest CO. ..Thornton.. 09/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday across portions of southern WY and into far northwest CO. The progression of the upper wave over the Pacific Northwest will strengthen lee troughing over the northern and central High Plains over the next 48 hours. As a result, low to mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. With a dry air mass expected to already be in place by Thursday afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions are expected from northern AZ into UT, western CO, and southern WY. However, fuels across most of this region are not receptive outside of southern WY and adjacent portions of northwest CO where 30-day rainfall deficits and ERC values near the 80th percentile are noted in recent analyses. ...Western Kansas... Drier, windier deterministic solutions hint at the potential for elevated conditions across western KS Thursday afternoon. Fuels over northwest KS appear to be receptive after little rainfall over the past 30 days, and may support a fire concern. However, confidence in substantial overlap of these dry fuels with sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains limited due to spread in ensemble guidance and a noted dry bias in the upstream air mass over the southern High Plains noted in some model runs. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The fire marshals for the Murfreesboro Fire Rescue Department and Rutherford County Fire & Rescue Department issued a mandatory open burning ban for the city limits of Murfreesboro and Rutherford County due to a dry spell. The joint burn ban took effect immediately and will remain until conditions improve. WGNS 1450-AM & 101.9 100.5-FM (Murfreesboro, Tenn.), Sept 27, 2023

The Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources announced more fire precautions for all parks due to the continued drought. Park visitors and overnight guests were asked to be extra careful with campfires and barbecue grills as the fire danger has risen. Campfires are not permitted outside of designated day-use picnic areas, campgrounds or developed recreational areas, but barbecue grills and gas-fueled stoves are allowed. The fire precautions were in addition to the Sept. 22 statewide fire alert. WHNT 19 News (Huntsville, Ala.), Sept 27, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271711
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwestern East Pacific:
A tropical wave is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms
well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some development of this system is possible over the
next couple of days while it moves generally westward at about 15
mph. By this weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development before the system moves into
the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

The lack of rain this summer frustrated produce growers who usually bring their produce to sell at a community market in Biloxi. The heat, combined with the absence of rain, wiped out the crops, commented one farmer. Flowers have not been blooming amid the drought, which has been a problem for the bees and honey production. Of the 200 Christmas trees planted this year, 75 were lost for lack of water. An Alabama farmer noted that the dry weather kept them from planting the greens at the usual time, but that the crop was emerging. A late hard freeze also damaged produce even before the heat and drought struck. WLOX TV 13 (Biloxi, Miss.), Sept 26, 2023

In the Minnesota and Iowa area east of Interstate 35, corn yields varied from 40 bushels per acre to 230 in the same field. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Sept 22, 2023

Drought devastated crops in southern Mississippi this summer. Livestock farmers lacking hay sold cattle or fed their animals hay that should be kept for the winter months. While cattle usually begin eating hay in November, some were being fed hay in August this year. A cotton grower in Copiah County reported that he lost about $100,000 due to a poor cotton crop. Mississippi Today (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 26, 2023