Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance trends suggest the persistence of a longwave trough in the mean from south-central Canada to the Southwest States into this weekend. A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies will likely remain prevalent across the South-Central to Southeast States. This should overlap with the gradually enriching moist sector over the Gulf, yielding conditionally favorable severe potential centered on the western Gulf Coast States to the Deep South starting around D5. A parade of shortwave impulses appears probable, digging from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest before ejecting east. However, poor run-to-run continuity with large ensemble spread remains evident with the evolution of individual impulses. General trends with the latest 00Z cycle in deterministic guidance have been for a more suppressed northern extent of the Gulf moist sector and prominent cyclogenesis delayed until around D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance trends suggest the persistence of a longwave trough in the mean from south-central Canada to the Southwest States into this weekend. A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies will likely remain prevalent across the South-Central to Southeast States. This should overlap with the gradually enriching moist sector over the Gulf, yielding conditionally favorable severe potential centered on the western Gulf Coast States to the Deep South starting around D5. A parade of shortwave impulses appears probable, digging from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest before ejecting east. However, poor run-to-run continuity with large ensemble spread remains evident with the evolution of individual impulses. General trends with the latest 00Z cycle in deterministic guidance have been for a more suppressed northern extent of the Gulf moist sector and prominent cyclogenesis delayed until around D8. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, where large-scale ascent focuses downstream of the primary shortwave impulse attendant to the Pacific Coast trough. Thunderstorm coverage should diurnally peak across the Lower CO Valley in the late afternoon Tuesday, with scant buoyancy being the primary limiting factor to storm intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress southward around the backside of the broader trough off the Atlantic Coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across east FL through the evening. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, should support low-topped thunderstorms into the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, where large-scale ascent focuses downstream of the primary shortwave impulse attendant to the Pacific Coast trough. Thunderstorm coverage should diurnally peak across the Lower CO Valley in the late afternoon Tuesday, with scant buoyancy being the primary limiting factor to storm intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress southward around the backside of the broader trough off the Atlantic Coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across east FL through the evening. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, should support low-topped thunderstorms into the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, where large-scale ascent focuses downstream of the primary shortwave impulse attendant to the Pacific Coast trough. Thunderstorm coverage should diurnally peak across the Lower CO Valley in the late afternoon Tuesday, with scant buoyancy being the primary limiting factor to storm intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress southward around the backside of the broader trough off the Atlantic Coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across east FL through the evening. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, should support low-topped thunderstorms into the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, where large-scale ascent focuses downstream of the primary shortwave impulse attendant to the Pacific Coast trough. Thunderstorm coverage should diurnally peak across the Lower CO Valley in the late afternoon Tuesday, with scant buoyancy being the primary limiting factor to storm intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress southward around the backside of the broader trough off the Atlantic Coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across east FL through the evening. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, should support low-topped thunderstorms into the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern consisting of a trough-ridge-trough will gradually shift east across the CONUS and adjacent offshore areas through the period. Thunder potential over land will largely be confined to southern portions of CA/AZ, where large-scale ascent focuses downstream of the primary shortwave impulse attendant to the Pacific Coast trough. Thunderstorm coverage should diurnally peak across the Lower CO Valley in the late afternoon Tuesday, with scant buoyancy being the primary limiting factor to storm intensity. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress southward around the backside of the broader trough off the Atlantic Coast. This impulse should reach the Savannah Valley on Tuesday morning and then move across east FL through the evening. The lobe of ascent ahead of this feature, coupled with low-level speed convergence in north-northeasterly flow near the coast, should support low-topped thunderstorms into the nearshore waters of east FL. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough progresses across the Interior West tomorrow/Tuesday. Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected to overspread poorly receptive fuels for most of the CONUS, limiting the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Plains states today between a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic and a second trough impinging on the West Coast. Relatively cool temperatures with weak wind fields should characterize surface conditions across the Plains, with heavier precipitation falling along the West Coast and Gulf Coast areas, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential across much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more