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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. A strong Pacific trough is forecast to emerge out of the Southwest and cross the southern Plains mid week. Thereafter, strong flow aloft should remain over parts of the southern Plains and central/eastern US through the remainder of the forecast period. Widespread cooler and wetter temperatures appear likely toward the end of next week as the active upper-level flow pattern continues. Overall, fire-weather concerns appear low, with the exception of some localized dry and breezy conditions possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. ...Southeast NM and southwest TX... As the aforementioned Pacific trough ejects eastward this week, a strong lee cyclone will develop over the central Plains. Gusty southwest winds are expected behind the low, bolstered by the increasingly strong flow aloft. Abundant moisture and precipitation are expected near the low across the southwestern and central US. However, portions of west TX and southern NM may remain somewhat drier comparatively. While models differ on the intensity of the upper trough and corresponding surface low, periodic dry and breezy conditions appear possible over parts of the TX Big Bend and NM from D4/Wed through D7/Sat. Still, forecast confidence remains too low for critical probabilities with area fuels only marginally dry and considerable discrepancy in medium range model guidance. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. A strong Pacific trough is forecast to emerge out of the Southwest and cross the southern Plains mid week. Thereafter, strong flow aloft should remain over parts of the southern Plains and central/eastern US through the remainder of the forecast period. Widespread cooler and wetter temperatures appear likely toward the end of next week as the active upper-level flow pattern continues. Overall, fire-weather concerns appear low, with the exception of some localized dry and breezy conditions possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. ...Southeast NM and southwest TX... As the aforementioned Pacific trough ejects eastward this week, a strong lee cyclone will develop over the central Plains. Gusty southwest winds are expected behind the low, bolstered by the increasingly strong flow aloft. Abundant moisture and precipitation are expected near the low across the southwestern and central US. However, portions of west TX and southern NM may remain somewhat drier comparatively. While models differ on the intensity of the upper trough and corresponding surface low, periodic dry and breezy conditions appear possible over parts of the TX Big Bend and NM from D4/Wed through D7/Sat. Still, forecast confidence remains too low for critical probabilities with area fuels only marginally dry and considerable discrepancy in medium range model guidance. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. A strong Pacific trough is forecast to emerge out of the Southwest and cross the southern Plains mid week. Thereafter, strong flow aloft should remain over parts of the southern Plains and central/eastern US through the remainder of the forecast period. Widespread cooler and wetter temperatures appear likely toward the end of next week as the active upper-level flow pattern continues. Overall, fire-weather concerns appear low, with the exception of some localized dry and breezy conditions possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. ...Southeast NM and southwest TX... As the aforementioned Pacific trough ejects eastward this week, a strong lee cyclone will develop over the central Plains. Gusty southwest winds are expected behind the low, bolstered by the increasingly strong flow aloft. Abundant moisture and precipitation are expected near the low across the southwestern and central US. However, portions of west TX and southern NM may remain somewhat drier comparatively. While models differ on the intensity of the upper trough and corresponding surface low, periodic dry and breezy conditions appear possible over parts of the TX Big Bend and NM from D4/Wed through D7/Sat. Still, forecast confidence remains too low for critical probabilities with area fuels only marginally dry and considerable discrepancy in medium range model guidance. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. A strong Pacific trough is forecast to emerge out of the Southwest and cross the southern Plains mid week. Thereafter, strong flow aloft should remain over parts of the southern Plains and central/eastern US through the remainder of the forecast period. Widespread cooler and wetter temperatures appear likely toward the end of next week as the active upper-level flow pattern continues. Overall, fire-weather concerns appear low, with the exception of some localized dry and breezy conditions possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. ...Southeast NM and southwest TX... As the aforementioned Pacific trough ejects eastward this week, a strong lee cyclone will develop over the central Plains. Gusty southwest winds are expected behind the low, bolstered by the increasingly strong flow aloft. Abundant moisture and precipitation are expected near the low across the southwestern and central US. However, portions of west TX and southern NM may remain somewhat drier comparatively. While models differ on the intensity of the upper trough and corresponding surface low, periodic dry and breezy conditions appear possible over parts of the TX Big Bend and NM from D4/Wed through D7/Sat. Still, forecast confidence remains too low for critical probabilities with area fuels only marginally dry and considerable discrepancy in medium range model guidance. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. A strong Pacific trough is forecast to emerge out of the Southwest and cross the southern Plains mid week. Thereafter, strong flow aloft should remain over parts of the southern Plains and central/eastern US through the remainder of the forecast period. Widespread cooler and wetter temperatures appear likely toward the end of next week as the active upper-level flow pattern continues. Overall, fire-weather concerns appear low, with the exception of some localized dry and breezy conditions possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. ...Southeast NM and southwest TX... As the aforementioned Pacific trough ejects eastward this week, a strong lee cyclone will develop over the central Plains. Gusty southwest winds are expected behind the low, bolstered by the increasingly strong flow aloft. Abundant moisture and precipitation are expected near the low across the southwestern and central US. However, portions of west TX and southern NM may remain somewhat drier comparatively. While models differ on the intensity of the upper trough and corresponding surface low, periodic dry and breezy conditions appear possible over parts of the TX Big Bend and NM from D4/Wed through D7/Sat. Still, forecast confidence remains too low for critical probabilities with area fuels only marginally dry and considerable discrepancy in medium range model guidance. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS through much of the extended forecast period. A strong Pacific trough is forecast to emerge out of the Southwest and cross the southern Plains mid week. Thereafter, strong flow aloft should remain over parts of the southern Plains and central/eastern US through the remainder of the forecast period. Widespread cooler and wetter temperatures appear likely toward the end of next week as the active upper-level flow pattern continues. Overall, fire-weather concerns appear low, with the exception of some localized dry and breezy conditions possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. ...Southeast NM and southwest TX... As the aforementioned Pacific trough ejects eastward this week, a strong lee cyclone will develop over the central Plains. Gusty southwest winds are expected behind the low, bolstered by the increasingly strong flow aloft. Abundant moisture and precipitation are expected near the low across the southwestern and central US. However, portions of west TX and southern NM may remain somewhat drier comparatively. While models differ on the intensity of the upper trough and corresponding surface low, periodic dry and breezy conditions appear possible over parts of the TX Big Bend and NM from D4/Wed through D7/Sat. Still, forecast confidence remains too low for critical probabilities with area fuels only marginally dry and considerable discrepancy in medium range model guidance. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 4 21:01:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA/NORTH FL...SOUTH FL...AND THE CENTRAL CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of southwest Georgia and north Florida this afternoon, and south Florida and the Keys late tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into a larger portion of southwest GA and the northeast FL Panhandle, based on the progression of the surface warm front and presence of small but rotating cells moving northward across the region. See MCD 106 for more information. A portion of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed from south FL, but there remains some chance of a strong storm or two late tonight with isolated hail/wind potential across far south FL and the Keys. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northward along the CA coast, based on observational and guidance trends regarding the areas most prone to low-topped convection within a strongly sheared environment. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA/NORTH FL...SOUTH FL...AND THE CENTRAL CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of southwest Georgia and north Florida this afternoon, and south Florida and the Keys late tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into a larger portion of southwest GA and the northeast FL Panhandle, based on the progression of the surface warm front and presence of small but rotating cells moving northward across the region. See MCD 106 for more information. A portion of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed from south FL, but there remains some chance of a strong storm or two late tonight with isolated hail/wind potential across far south FL and the Keys. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northward along the CA coast, based on observational and guidance trends regarding the areas most prone to low-topped convection within a strongly sheared environment. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA/NORTH FL...SOUTH FL...AND THE CENTRAL CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of southwest Georgia and north Florida this afternoon, and south Florida and the Keys late tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into a larger portion of southwest GA and the northeast FL Panhandle, based on the progression of the surface warm front and presence of small but rotating cells moving northward across the region. See MCD 106 for more information. A portion of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed from south FL, but there remains some chance of a strong storm or two late tonight with isolated hail/wind potential across far south FL and the Keys. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northward along the CA coast, based on observational and guidance trends regarding the areas most prone to low-topped convection within a strongly sheared environment. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA/NORTH FL...SOUTH FL...AND THE CENTRAL CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of southwest Georgia and north Florida this afternoon, and south Florida and the Keys late tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into a larger portion of southwest GA and the northeast FL Panhandle, based on the progression of the surface warm front and presence of small but rotating cells moving northward across the region. See MCD 106 for more information. A portion of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed from south FL, but there remains some chance of a strong storm or two late tonight with isolated hail/wind potential across far south FL and the Keys. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northward along the CA coast, based on observational and guidance trends regarding the areas most prone to low-topped convection within a strongly sheared environment. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA/NORTH FL...SOUTH FL...AND THE CENTRAL CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of southwest Georgia and north Florida this afternoon, and south Florida and the Keys late tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into a larger portion of southwest GA and the northeast FL Panhandle, based on the progression of the surface warm front and presence of small but rotating cells moving northward across the region. See MCD 106 for more information. A portion of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed from south FL, but there remains some chance of a strong storm or two late tonight with isolated hail/wind potential across far south FL and the Keys. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northward along the CA coast, based on observational and guidance trends regarding the areas most prone to low-topped convection within a strongly sheared environment. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA/NORTH FL...SOUTH FL...AND THE CENTRAL CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of southwest Georgia and north Florida this afternoon, and south Florida and the Keys late tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into a larger portion of southwest GA and the northeast FL Panhandle, based on the progression of the surface warm front and presence of small but rotating cells moving northward across the region. See MCD 106 for more information. A portion of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed from south FL, but there remains some chance of a strong storm or two late tonight with isolated hail/wind potential across far south FL and the Keys. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northward along the CA coast, based on observational and guidance trends regarding the areas most prone to low-topped convection within a strongly sheared environment. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA/NORTH FL...SOUTH FL...AND THE CENTRAL CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of southwest Georgia and north Florida this afternoon, and south Florida and the Keys late tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into a larger portion of southwest GA and the northeast FL Panhandle, based on the progression of the surface warm front and presence of small but rotating cells moving northward across the region. See MCD 106 for more information. A portion of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed from south FL, but there remains some chance of a strong storm or two late tonight with isolated hail/wind potential across far south FL and the Keys. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northward along the CA coast, based on observational and guidance trends regarding the areas most prone to low-topped convection within a strongly sheared environment. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA/NORTH FL...SOUTH FL...AND THE CENTRAL CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of southwest Georgia and north Florida this afternoon, and south Florida and the Keys late tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into a larger portion of southwest GA and the northeast FL Panhandle, based on the progression of the surface warm front and presence of small but rotating cells moving northward across the region. See MCD 106 for more information. A portion of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed from south FL, but there remains some chance of a strong storm or two late tonight with isolated hail/wind potential across far south FL and the Keys. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northward along the CA coast, based on observational and guidance trends regarding the areas most prone to low-topped convection within a strongly sheared environment. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GA/NORTH FL...SOUTH FL...AND THE CENTRAL CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of southwest Georgia and north Florida this afternoon, and south Florida and the Keys late tonight. A very limited risk for a brief/weak tornado is also evident near the central California Coast, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into a larger portion of southwest GA and the northeast FL Panhandle, based on the progression of the surface warm front and presence of small but rotating cells moving northward across the region. See MCD 106 for more information. A portion of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed from south FL, but there remains some chance of a strong storm or two late tonight with isolated hail/wind potential across far south FL and the Keys. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northward along the CA coast, based on observational and guidance trends regarding the areas most prone to low-topped convection within a strongly sheared environment. ..Dean.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Parts of FL... A band of strong/locally severe storms is crossing southeastern FL at this time, with one rotating storm now moving through the Miami area. This convection is advancing quickly northeastward, with the strongest storms to move offshore over the next half hour. As this occurs, severe risk will end in the short term. For additional details, please refer to SWOMCD #105. With severe risk to largely move off the coast in the very near term, will remove SLGT risk from this region. Later today, in the wake of the initial/ongoing convection, weak destabilization is expected -- aided by steepening lapse rates spreading across the Gulf and into Florida. Low-topped afternoon showers and isolated storms are expected to evolve from southern Georgia into northern Florida, where limited potential for marginal hail and a stronger gust or two could develop. Finally, convection developing over the Gulf south of Louisiana -- associated with a lobe of vorticity on the southern edge of the primary upper cyclone -- should continue to expand in coverage, and may reach coastal Florida and the Keys very late in the period. As such, will maintain low severe-weather probabilities across parts of southern Florida and the Keys to reflect this potential. ...Central CA coast... As a short-wave trough -- within the broader cyclonic circulation off the CA coast -- shifts northeastward toward the central coast today, an associated/well-developed surface low will also approach later today and tonight. As convection ahead of the low/cold front should moves onshore, little lightning is expected given very meager/low-topped buoyancy. Still, very strong deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing strongly with height ahead of the front -- will provide a highly favorable kinematic environment with respect to potential for rotating updrafts. The aforementioned lack of appreciable buoyancy should largely mitigate the potential for updrafts of sufficient depth/duration to realize to otherwise favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, but will maintain MRGL risk to reflect the very low/conditional potential for a brief tornado or strong wind gusts that could evolve as convection moves onshore later this afternoon/evening. Read more

MD 0106 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle into Northern FL and Far Southeast GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041901Z - 042100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped supercells capable of damaging gusts and brief tornadoes are possible across northern FL and far southern GA this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 35 miles north of AAF in the central FL Panhandle. A warm from extends east-northeastward from this low into extreme southeast GA/northeast FL, while a cold front arcs southeastward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, remaining mostly offshore. Radar imagery from KTLH has shown several low-topped rotating storms near the warm front just east/northeast of TLH. Given the lack of buoyancy, updrafts are likely being augmented by favorable interaction with the warm front, with the strong low-level shear then resulting in tornadogenesis. Additional development is occurring south of the warm front, and there is some chance that continued interaction with the warm front could result in another brief tornado. A somewhat separate regime is developing within the warm sector downstream of the approaching Pacific cold front. Clearing within the dry slot is allowing for filtered heating and steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At the same time, cold mid-level temperatures continue to advect over the region, with 500-mb temperatures likely dropping to -20 deg C across much of northern FL by later this afternoon. Shallow thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of the front across northern FL this afternoon. Veering low-level flow will be in place, and the potential for a few low-topped supercells exists. However, buoyancy will be modest and is expected to limit both updraft strength and duration, leading to uncertainty on the number and coverage of supercells. This uncertainty tempers the overall watch probability, but convective trends will be monitored closely this afternoon for potential watch issuance. ..Mosier/Goss.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30358457 30748417 30868296 30628162 29968143 29088214 29198300 29808378 30358457 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more