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No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 17 00:57:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 17 00:57:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes remain possible over parts of northern Washington and vicinity the next several hours. Severe storms are not expected. ...01z Update... A few lightning flashes remain possible across northern WA into far northern ID with ongoing showers/convection. Thunderstorm chances should gradually wane through the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 10/17/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and
a tropical depression is very likely to form within the next day or
so. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and
then turn northwestward and northward late in the week offshore of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico in a few days. Gradual development
of the disturbance is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the
system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A strong mid-level trough will move from the Plains to the Great Lakes later this week and amplify into a large trough across the eastern CONUS this weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding trough location and phasing, but a strong surface low may be possible near the Northeast this weekend. This should result in some dry and breezy conditions across much of the eastern CONUS later this week and this weekend, but temperatures should be cool, much of this area will see precipitation later this week, and fuels are moist. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Much of the extended period will be dry across the Southwest and southern Plains. Therefore, fuels are expected to dry, and with cooler temperature starting to arrive, finer fuels may start to become dormant in some areas. Therefore, there may be at least somewhat receptive fuels when the next mid-level trough crosses the Southwest early next week. This trough is expected to bring low-elevation rain and mountain snow, but there may be a period in the 12 to 24 hours ahead of trough arrival where there may be some increased fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The power plant in Osceola, Arkansas has not been producing hydropower for the past three weeks because not enough Mississippi River water was passing through the intake pipes. ABC News (New York), Oct 16, 2023

The lack of rain in Cullman County caused an apple orchard to lose at least two-thirds of the apple crop. Only Fuji apples produced a crop this year, but even those were not abundant. Other orchards in central Alabama experienced the same. WVTM-TV 13 (Birmingham, Ala.), Oct 16, 2023

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 16 00:57:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 16 00:57:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... With a surface cold front now clearing the far southeastern tip of Florida (southeastern Dade County) and the Keys, and thunder potential overnight will remain offshore. Elsewhere, with dry/stable air spilling across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. and a ridge prevailing over the West, no thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the period. ..Goss.. 10/16/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity extending several hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form in a few days while moving slowly westward and then
northwestward well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico by the middle of the week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible, and a tropical
depression could form late this week as the system meanders over
the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the top of a mid-level ridge across the northern Rockies on Tuesday and amplify as it moves southeast into the eastern CONUS for the end of the week. As this occurs, an area of surface low-pressure will develop across the Plains and eventually move into the eastern CONUS. Breezy conditions will accompany this surface low, but relatively cool temperatures should keep relative humidity somewhat higher. Fuels remain moist across much of the CONUS, particularly where the dry and breezy conditions will be present. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal for the extended period. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 15 00:48:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 15 00:48:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0724 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather threat has ended over the eastern North Carolina vicinty. Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. through the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... A surface low now in the vicinity of southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay will move offshore this evening, as mid-level short-wave troughing continues to move eastward across the central Appalachians. Earlier warm-sector convection over far eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks has moved offshore, and with it, any potential for stronger storms. As such, MRGL risk is being removed from the outlook at this time. A few lightning strikes will remain possible, however, across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms may persist this evening over South Florida, while lightning is not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through 15/12Z. ..Goss.. 10/15/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142328
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Subsequent
development of the system is likely, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the middle to latter part of next week while
the system meanders well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Guatemala and El Salvador:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador by the middle of next week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible after that while the
system meanders over the far eastern portion of the eastern North
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky