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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The beginning of the extended forecast period will feature a large high pressure center across the Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest on Monday will traverse the top of the ridge across the northern Rockies and amplify as it moves southeast into the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, an area of surface low-pressure will develop across the Plains and eventually move into the eastern CONUS. Breezy conditions will accompany this surface low, but relatively cool temperatures should keep relative humidity somewhat higher. Fuels remain moist across much of the CONUS, particularly where the dry and breezy conditions will be present. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal for the extended period. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 14 00:43:01 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 14 00:43:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-storm risk has diminished in the Mid-Mississippi Valley area. Severe weather will remain unlikely through the rest of the period. ...Discussion... Convection ongoing across parts of Iowa and Illinois continues to weaken this evening, as nocturnal cooling continues to yield steadily decreasing instability. This has resulted in a cessation of appreciable severe potential. Occasional lightning will be possible across the Midwest/Ohio Valley as the storm system associated with the convective activity advances eastward. A few thunderstorms across Deep South Texas, and southern Florida, may persist through the evening and into the overnight, while a few storms may develop later over portions of eastern South Carolina and vicinity. However, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/14/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to
middle part of next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter part of the week
while meandering well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Surface high pressure will dominate the United States early next week as a cool, continental airmass is in place across much of the CONUS. Lee troughing may return by the middle of the week and bring some dry and breezy conditions to the Plains and vicinity. However, relative humidity is not expected to be that low, and these breezy conditions are anticipated where fuels are currently moist and should remain so. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal through next week. ..Bentley.. 10/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Duck hunters in North Dakota will find fewer wetlands after the summer turned dry. The state Game and Fish Department’s annual fall wetland survey estimated the number of duck hunting wetlands holding water as being almost the same as last year’s estimate, but still 29% below the 2003-2022 long-term average. As of Oct. 5, nearly half of North Dakota was in drought. The number of duck hunting type wetlands -- seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands -- counted statewide during the fall survey was the sixth lowest since 2003. The northern edge of the state was 29% to 40% behind long-term averages. The northeastern region had its lowest number of duck hunting wetlands in 20 years. Some heavy rain has fallen since the survey was carried out in mid-September, so wetlands may be higher in some areas. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), Oct 13, 2023

All of northwest Alabama was in drought, and the forecast offered no chances of significant rain. Local authorities were pleading with the public to avoid outdoor burning. Times Daily (Florence, Ala.), Oct 13, 2023

Wisconsin crop yields were better than expected. A farmer noted that the stalk was shorter than normal, but the grain filled out well. Wisconsin farmers planted about 3.9 million acres of corn last year. Most was harvested for grain, but 880,000 acres were cut for silage. Drought may lead to more acres being cut for silage this year. Wisconsin State Journal (Madison), Oct 11, 2023

Nebraska hunters were reminded to exercise caution to prevent inadvertently sparking a wildfire as 27% of the state was in severe to exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. KFXL (Axtell, Neb.), Oct. 12, 2023

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Nebraska. ...Central Plains... An upper low will continue to move slowly east across NE through tonight, with a 70-80 kt midlevel jet pushing east into IA and northern MO. At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves east across the same areas. Storms have generally decreased in intensity this evening due to the cooling air mass, except for farther south into east-central KS in closer proximity to the surface warm plume. 00Z soundings downstream indicate minimal instability overall, with little additional destabilization expected as a cooling boundary layer counteracts any cooling aloft. Shear will remain strong over northern areas, but waning instability should limit the overall severe risk. As such, a Marginal Risk will remain over the area for sporadic hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell.. 10/13/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 13 00:53:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 13 00:53:01 UTC 2023.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122311
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to
middle part of next week. Thereafter, some gradual development is
possible while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

After an intense summer of drought that devastated a lot of the pumpkin crop in the Hartsburg area, farmers imported pumpkins for the upcoming festival to make sure that they had enough on hand. KRCG-TV (New Bloomfield, Mo.), Oct 12, 2023

A number of water suppliers in Pennsylvania have asked customers to mandatorily conserve water. In addition to the York Water Company requiring mandatory non-essential water use restrictions, Audubon Water Company, in Montgomery County; Littlestown Municipal Water Authority, in Adams County; and Lock Haven City Authority, in Clinton County all have similar water restrictions. Eighteen public water suppliers were also seeking voluntary water conservation. York Dispatch (Pa.), Oct 12, 2023

The heat and drought in Louisiana this summer left grass in short supply for an Erath farm, leaving less for cattle. The pasture is in a marshy area, so the saltwater has been moving into the pasture, which has affected the calves. The aim is to have at least half of the calves weighing more than 500 pounds, but the lack of grass and saltwater intrusion have thwarted that plan. Just two of the calves have hit the weight goal. KLFY News 10 (Lafayette, La.), Oct 6, 2023

Northern Michigan has many wineries and is a 'wine tourism' destination. This year, drought over the summer stressed the grape vines, which can lead to excellent fruit quality and fabulous wine. UpNorthLive (Traverse City, Mich.), Oct 6, 2023

U.S. farmers were about halfway done planting winter wheat that will be harvested in 2024, but acreage was expected to remain the same or decrease from last year due to lower prices and farmers' dissatisfaction with the crop after three dry years. Reuters (Chicago), Oct 12, 2023