SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a trough of
low pressure. Gradual development of this system is anticipated
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 4a

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051735 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 78.7W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later today. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected and these rains could cause flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Sunday along the coast of eastern South Carolina and much of North Carolina. SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik
NHC Webmaster

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more