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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 5 16:05:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. ..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 14:56:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 15:22:25 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 530 WTNT33 KNHC 051503 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Corrected storm position in Discussion and Outlook section ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 78.7W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf City, NC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) primarily east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later today. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected and these rains could cause flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Sunday along the coast of eastern South Carolina and much of North Carolina. SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Chantal was located near 31.1, -78.7 with movement N at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 14:56:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 14:56:49 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 11:52:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 14:56:46 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 11:52:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 09:21:33 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 051455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Satellite images suggest that Chantal has been organizing and gaining strength. The storm is still asymmetric though, with most of the associated showers and thunderstorms located near and to the east of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating the system and have found that the pressure has dropped to 1007 mb. The plane has yet to sample the area of strong thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now. The outer rainbands are beginning to reach portions of South and North Carolina, and conditions along the coast within the watch and warning areas are expected to continue to deteriorate throughout the day. Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the north-northwest is expected to begin soon. The main steering features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region. The flow between these features should cause Chantal to move inland over South Carolina Sunday morning. It should be noted that center reformations are possible, which could cause some erratic motion. After landfall, a turn to the northeast is expected when the storm moves on the western side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the previous one, and the latest HCCA and Google Deep Mind solutions. Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and in line with the latest HMON, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B guidance. After landfall, steady weakening is expected until the system dissipates in 48 to 60 hours. Chantal is expected to remain a lopsided system during the next day or so. Therefore, the strongest winds are anticipated to occur to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash flooding through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas in the coastal plain of the Carolinas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 31.1N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik