Aggregator

...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Chantal was located near 31.6, -78.7 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central Plains... A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates. While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO, and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with localized significant hail or wind reports. Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow. ...Maine... Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few damaging gusts. ...MO into central IL and IN... A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep. As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest of cells near peak heating. ...Parts of the eastern Carolinas... Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk during the day with convection feeding in east of the track. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

473
ABNT20 KNHC 051727
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located off the coast of the southeastern United
States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are listed under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are listed under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 14:56:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 15:22:25 GMT

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Update... The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area. Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not received wetting rain recently. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more