Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

6 years ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120251 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past several days has finally developed a well-defined surface circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. A late-arriving 1716Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass indicated the surface wind field was possibly closed at that time, but since then deep convection with tops of -75C to -80C have persisted near and to the west of the mid-level circulation center, suggesting that a low-level center has likely closed off now. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 30-31 kt winds indicated in the aforementioned scatterometer data. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 295/12 kt, based primarily on scatterometer and passive microwave fixes. The small cyclone is expected to move west-northwestward around the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 3 days until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast lies near the southern portion of the guidance envelope, between the TVCE consensus model and the ECMWF-ensemble mean model. The small cyclone only has about 36 hours to strengthen before the system moves over sub-26 deg C SSTs. The shear is forecast to be low at less than 10 kt for the next 72 hours or so, even decreasing to near 5 kt in 24-36 h, which would normally result in significant development. However, intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air are expected to disrupt the typical intensification process, thus only modest strengthening is forecast through 36 h, after which much cooler waters will induce a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 18.9N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

6 years ago
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 120248 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 1

6 years ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 120248 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 109.8W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening will be possible for the next day or so, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday. Weakening is expected on Tuesday and the system forecast to become a remnant low by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

6 years ago
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120247 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

SPC MD 1711

6 years ago
MD 1711 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 571... FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1711 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Areas affected...southeastern Montana...far northern Wyoming...and western/central South Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 571... Valid 120245Z - 120345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 571 continues. SUMMARY...Portions of WW 571 will need to be extended for a few more hours to address the ongoing severe threats in the WW areas. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective clusters/linear complexes continue to forward-propagate eastward across remaining portions of WW 571 - one cluster over southeastern MT just east of Billings and another near /south of PHP. The pre-convective environments ahead of these storms remain supportive of all modes of severe weather, though hail and wind are the main threats given storm mode. The linear complex in Montana has a history of severe wind gusts and significant hail, and although substantial overturning/stabilization has occurred across western South Dakota and vicinity, this stabilized air will probably not impact the ongoing severe MCS in that area for the next couple of hours or so. ..Cook.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46910705 46960592 46440354 45540187 44310104 43669992 43299961 43059984 42930092 43170166 43950191 44820233 45290376 45210476 44940579 44740629 44580682 44830762 45180803 45670820 46410774 46680741 46910705 Read more

North Hills Fire (Wildfire)

6 years ago
The North Hills Fire is 100% contained and on patrol. A significant thundershower occurred over the fire area. There is potential for flash floods and debris flow in the burn scar. https://www.lccountymt.gov/des.html Occasional smoke and/or dust devils may be visible in the future. The North Hills Fire will continue to be

SPC Tornado Watch 571 Status Reports

6 years ago
WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E CDR TO 30 SW PHP TO 30 NW PHP TO 65 NNE RAP TO 35 SSE 2WX TO 45 SW 2WX TO 25 SSE 4BQ TO 30 SE SHR. ..COOK..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-120340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE SDC007-055-063-071-095-105-121-123-137-120340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON HARDING JACKSON MELLETTE PERKINS TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH WYC033-120340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 571 Status Reports

6 years ago
WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E CDR TO 30 SW PHP TO 30 NW PHP TO 65 NNE RAP TO 35 SSE 2WX TO 45 SW 2WX TO 25 SSE 4BQ TO 30 SE SHR. ..COOK..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-120340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE SDC007-055-063-071-095-105-121-123-137-120340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON HARDING JACKSON MELLETTE PERKINS TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH WYC033-120340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 571 Status Reports

6 years ago
WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E CDR TO 30 SW PHP TO 30 NW PHP TO 65 NNE RAP TO 35 SSE 2WX TO 45 SW 2WX TO 25 SSE 4BQ TO 30 SE SHR. ..COOK..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-103-120340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE SDC007-055-063-071-095-105-121-123-137-120340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON HARDING JACKSON MELLETTE PERKINS TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH WYC033-120340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 571

6 years ago
WW 571 TORNADO MT SD WY 112000Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 571 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Montana Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple discrete supercells will progress east-northeast from northeast Wyoming and south-central Montana. Large hail and a couple tornadoes should be the primary threat during the first few hours. Severe wind gust potential will increase later into the evening as cells likely consolidate into one or more clusters, especially across southern Montana. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Billings MT to 50 miles northeast of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 569...WW 570... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Grams Read more

SPC MD 1710

6 years ago
MD 1710 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 572... FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1710 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Areas affected...southern Nebraska and northern Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 572... Valid 120211Z - 120415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 572 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk has diminished some across the watch, while risk for damaging winds and marginal hail continues. Wind risk is expected to spread eastward out of the watch over the next couple of hours, with new WW expected. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that earlier, supercell storms have congealed into an eastward-moving storm cluster, with a rather strong mesolow moving out of Cheyenne and into Rawlins County in Kansas. At this time, it appears that damaging wind risk will not only continue within WW 572, but will also spread eastward, downstream of the watch with time. Given the very moist boundary layer/unstable airmass in place across the central Plains, risk will likely warrant new watch issuance, possibly including southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. ..Goss/Hart.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... BOU... LAT...LON 38510213 39310258 40380193 41020228 41320199 41390043 41589705 39409669 38179817 38280111 38300188 38510213 Read more

SPC MD 1709

6 years ago
MD 1709 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573... FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1709 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0838 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Areas affected...northeastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573... Valid 120138Z - 120245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 573. DISCUSSION...Storms have congealed into a forward-propagating linear complex over the past couple of hours while migrating eastward into WW 573. Based on radar and objective analyses, the greatest severe threat with this activity appears to be tied to the southern end of this complex, where surface-based buoyancy is strongest (around 2000 J/kg). Although instability is lower with northward and eastward extent, the organized nature of the convection, 40 kts of deep shear, and weak to moderate instability should foster at least an isolated, yet continued threat for damaging wind gusts as storms move through the WW. Storms should reach the eastern extent of the WW through 05Z or so, though it is uncertain whether storms will maintain their intensity with eastward extent toward the MT/ND border region where surface temperatures cool into the mid 60s F. Behind the line, the severe threat will diminish such that those portions of WW 573 may be cancelled early. ..Cook.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 48970818 49150704 49080482 48660400 47370389 46680388 46480477 46540599 46650718 46620795 46780847 47760863 48410851 48970818 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 572 Status Reports

6 years ago
WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ITR TO 35 SSW IML TO 40 W IML. ..GOSS..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-120240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON KSC023-039-063-071-109-153-179-181-193-199-203-120240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC029-049-057-063-085-087-101-111-135-145-120240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DEUEL DUNDY Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 571 Status Reports

6 years ago
WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..COOK..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-011-017-025-037-065-075-087-095-103-111-120240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON CARTER CUSTER FALLON GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD STILLWATER TREASURE YELLOWSTONE SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-102-103-105-120240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HARDING LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS WYC005-011-033-045-120240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573 Status Reports

6 years ago
WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..COOK..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-033-055-069-071-079-083-085-105-109-120240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PHILLIPS PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT VALLEY WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Aug 12, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

6 years ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT AND ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern and central Great Plains. Damaging wind gusts, and large hail remain possible. ...01z Update... Strong convection that developed off the higher terrain of southeast WY/CO is gradually maturing as it advances east into more moist/buoyant air mass, especially along the NE/KS border. Latest diagnostic data exhibits seasonally large CAPE values with adequate shear for an upward evolving MCS. Organizing cluster of storms over northeast CO/northwest KS is expected to propagate east this evening, just north of a synoptic front draped along the I-70 corridor. As this activity matures, damaging wind threat should increase, especially if a bow-type squall line evolves. Farther north, strongly forced convection over central MT is spreading east into the northern High Plains. This activity is expected to remain organized, possibly evolving into an MCS as it approaches the ND border region. With LLJ expected to focus across western Dakotas tonight, a long-lived convective event seems likely. ..Darrow.. 08/12/2019 Read more