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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies, spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass. Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage. ...CO/KS... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this scenario. ...SC/NC... Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS. Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient. Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more