Aggregator

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 W GCC TO 25 S BHK. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-060140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER WYC005-011-045-060140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 W GCC TO 25 S BHK. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-060140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER WYC005-011-045-060140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 W GCC TO 25 S BHK. ..SPC..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-060140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER WYC005-011-045-060140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 487 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 051855Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Montana Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will form and spread across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. The strongest storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 105 miles north of Billings MT to 60 miles east southeast of Broadus MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 23:42:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 23:42:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW GCC TO 30 SSE MLS TO 40 N MLS TO 60 SSW GGW TO 60 NE LWT. ..SPC..07/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC005-011-017-021-025-033-055-071-075-079-105-109-060140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE VALLEY WIBAUX WYC005-011-045-060140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0488 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW GCC TO 30 SSE MLS TO 40 N MLS TO 60 SSW GGW TO 60 NE LWT. ..SPC..07/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC005-011-017-021-025-033-055-071-075-079-105-109-060140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE VALLEY WIBAUX WYC005-011-045-060140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 487 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 051855Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Montana Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will form and spread across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. The strongest storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 105 miles north of Billings MT to 60 miles east southeast of Broadus MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1570 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... FOR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/BLACK HILLS REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Northern High Plains/Black Hills region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487... Valid 052156Z - 060000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487 continues. SUMMARY...New severe thunderstorm watch will likely be warranted into western South Dakota in the next hour or so. Severe wind/hail can be expected with organized convection spreading into this region. DISCUSSION...Notable high-level diffluent flow is evident across the northern High Plains early this evening ahead of a progressive short-wave trough that is advancing across the northern Rockies. A considerable amount of deep convection is developing in response to this progressive feature, with a maturing MCS beginning to surge across southeast MT. This activity should begin to turn southeast over the next few hours, along/north of a surface front that is draped from the Nebraska Panhandle, along the west side of the Black Hills, into the northern Big Horn Mountains near Buffalo. Greatest buoyancy extends along the moist side of this wind shift which favors a severe MCS propagating toward the Black Hills later this evening. New severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued to reflect this scenario. ..Darrow.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 45920606 46260467 44740193 43430199 43150363 44630621 45920606 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 23:42:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052342 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 78.7W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this evening and overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Chantal was located near 32.3, -78.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

836
ABNT20 KNHC 052313
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located off the coast of the southeastern United
States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

984
ABPZ20 KNHC 052306
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Gradual development of this system is anticipated during
the next couple days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well off
the coast of Mexico. By early Tuesday, the disturbance is expected
to reach cooler water, ending its opportunity for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

MD 1571 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1571 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwestern Kansas...southeastern Colorado...northeastern New Mexico...and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052229Z - 052330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are ongoing this afternoon across portions of southwestern Kansas, southeastern Colorado, northeastern New Mexico, and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. A watch appears unlikely, however trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing to the south of a stationary boundary draped across west-central Kansas and east-central Colorado. South of the boundary, moist southeasterly flow and strong surface heating have resulted in moderate to strong instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) with steep low-level lapse rates. Flow aloft is fairly weak, which yields about 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, so the multicell character of convection with occasional transient supercells are expected to continue. The supercell updrafts may pose a risk for large hail this evening, given the favorable thermodynamic environment along with straight-line hodographs. Additionally, the strongest clusters of storms may produce severe gusts given the steep low-level lapse rates before the diurnal increase in convective inhibition later this evening. A watch seems unlikely at this time, but trends will be monitored. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34920384 34850498 35010549 35600547 36670516 37810418 38450247 38570100 38049977 37609957 36759959 36050065 35190305 34920384 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0488 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0488 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 488 SEVERE TSTM SD 052240Z - 060700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 488 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 440 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A small but intense thunderstorm cluster will spread east-southeastward across western South Dakota this evening into the early overnight hours. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with the cluster. Peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Occasional severe hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles south southwest of Buffalo SD to 10 miles east northeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 487... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28040. ...Gleason Read more