Tropical Storm Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 205 FONT13 KNHC 060843 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 17 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SURF CITY NC 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 7

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 239 WTNT33 KNHC 060843 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 ...CHANTAL NOW MOVING INLAND INTO FAR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS PUSH ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 79.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case for the next 6-12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.1 West. Chantal is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move further inland into South Carolina and then North Carolina through the day today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is anticipated now that Chantal has made landfall, with the system opening up into a trough in 36-48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. In the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) was reported at Apache Pier, South Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and should persist through this morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina today and across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible today across portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme northeast South Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 7

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060841 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.1W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.1W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 78.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.9N 79.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.3N 78.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 37.7N 76.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 79.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

SPC Jul 6, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC MD 1573

1 month 1 week ago
MD 1573 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488... FOR BLACK HILLS REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Black Hills region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488... Valid 060419Z - 060615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated gusts and marginally severe hail possible for the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Long-lived complex of storms that developed over southern MT have spread southeast across the northern Black Hills and appear to be encountering less buoyancy as they spread into the High Plains. Northern plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE extends into extreme southern SD, but nocturnal cooling will eventually force cloud bases to become more elevated in nature, especially where temperatures have lowered into the upper 60s/near 70F. Large-scale support ahead of the MT short-wave trough will continue to encourage this activity to propagate southeast; however, severe wind gusts should become increasingly isolated, and hail may struggle to attain severe levels. At this time a new severe thunderstorm watch does not appear warranted. ..Darrow.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR... LAT...LON 44260440 44390275 44840139 43240152 43580439 44260440 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Jul 6, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across the central Plains tomorrow (Monday). Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as upper troughing persists across the Northeast and West Coast tomorrow (Monday). Surface lee troughs will develop over the central Plains and New England, which will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development over both regions. Across the Plains, strong instability and appreciable vertical wind shear will be in place to support severe thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible over portions of the northern Appalachians. ...Northern Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, surface temperatures should rise into the 70s F amid 70 F dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg given the deep, rich low-level moisture in place. Modest westerly flow aloft will overspread the region as a mid-level trough glances the area, supporting 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear/straight hodographs. Some of the strongest storms may become organized multicells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts. ...Central High Plains into the Northern Plains... Surface lee troughing will encourage continued northward low-level moisture advection beneath 8.5+ C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates through the day, boosting MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. As evening approaches, strengthening of the southerly low-level jet should ensue beneath westerly 500 mb flow, resulting in enlarged, curved hodographs and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. The more robust storms that develop should be initially supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. An instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and/or a tornado may occur. Several storms are expected to develop along/ahead of the surface trough from the central High Plains into the northern Plains by evening, with cold pool mergers most likely across western NE. Here, an MCS may develop and produce a more focused swath of severe gusts, hence the Category 3/Enhanced risk. Multicell clusters may also develop as far northeast as MN and southwest as northeast NM, all of which may produce at least isolated severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more