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MD 1575 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...east North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061251Z - 061515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A marginal increase in tornado potential may occur this morning as Tropical Storm Chantal continues to move inland. The overall tornado potential should remain low enough to preclude the need for a TC-related Tornado Watch. However, trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...A marginal increase in tornado potential may occur this morning as Tropical Storm Chantal continues to move inland. This marginal increase would coincide with modest diurnal heating increasing and several feeder bands streaming inland on the eastern semicircle of Chantal. The onshore environment containing these feeder bands has little instability at present and the low-level storm-relative helicity is on the lower side of land-falling tropical cyclones. That said, the low-level storm-relative helicity still remains sufficient for low-level rotation with stronger thunderstorm updrafts. Present thinking is that the limited instability and modest low-level helicity should preclude any longer duration/larger area tornado threat and thus a TC-related tornado watch is not currently anticipated. However, trends will continue to be evaluated for increasing buoyancy and/or low-level helicity. ..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33857826 34727876 35637820 35897780 35987689 35627583 34757563 34517617 34197674 33827750 33857826 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH Read more

MD 1574 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...southwest South Dakota and north-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061214Z - 061415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms should persist for another couple of hours before weakening. Isolated hail and a damaging wind gust or two will remain possible in the near term. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue this morning across southwest South Dakota along the southwest portion of a remnant MCS that moved across this region overnight. These thunderstorms appear to be driven by isentropic ascent focused atop a residual cold pool left over from the overnight convection. This shows up as strong warm-air advection centered around 700 MB in regional mesoanalysis. Mesoanalysis also indicates a rich CAPE reservoir to the southwest of the ongoing storms, within the thunderstorm source/inflow region, providing additional buoyancy. With time, diurnal heating should begin to modify the existing cold pool and weaken the isentropic ascent/WAA leading to a downward trend in thunderstorm intensity. Before this weakening occurs, lapse rates do not appear particular steep this morning per RAP-model forecast soundings, and an isotherms layer extends upward from the surface to around 800 mb. This should limit the severe potential to isolated hail and perhaps a damaging wind gust or two -- realistically only in the most intense cores. A watch is not anticipated. ..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42700288 43310326 43780292 43860217 43680064 43250033 42590021 42300061 42170165 42700288 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly significant, becomes a greater concern. Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. ...Maine... Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 11:51:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 09:22:18 GMT

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 189 WTNT33 KNHC 061150 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 ...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 79.2W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF CONWAY SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 79.2 West. Chantal is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move further inland over South Carolina and then North Carolina through the day today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Chantal moves inland, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly over water to the southeast of the center. In the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was reported at Coastal Research and Monitoring Program buoy just off Sunset Beach, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning area this morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina today and across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible today across portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme northeastern South Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 the center of Chantal was located near 34.0, -79.2 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located inland over northeastern South Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

325
ABPZ20 KNHC 061125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Some slow development is still possible during the next
day or two, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before
the system moves west-northwestward over progressively cooler water
by Monday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 08:48:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 09:22:21 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 08:48:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 09:22:18 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 08:48:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 08:48:51 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060848 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Before the Air Force Reconnaissance plane departed Chantal this morning, their final leg observed 700 mb flight level winds of 59 kt and a dropsonde estimated pressure down to 1002 mb. Near the same location as those peak flight-level winds, NWS Doppler Radar velocities from Wilmington showed persistent 65-70 kt inbound values at 3-5 thousand feet. These data points were the basis for increasing Chantal's winds to 50 kt at the 06 UTC intermediate advisory. Since that time, the structure of the tropical storm on radar has degraded and the exact center has been difficult to pin down, but appears to have made landfall near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina at approximately 08 UTC. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt for this advisory given the degradation in appearance now just after landfall and the decreasing Doppler radial velocities. Chantal is estimated to now be moving north-northwestward, at 345/7 kt. A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated by the end of today as the cyclone rounds the westward side of a mid-level ridge located off the U.S. East Coast. The latest NHC track forecast is shifted just a bit eastward, mostly based on the initial position, but falls in line closely to the prior forecast track in 24-36 h. Weakening has already started as Chantal moves inland. Weakening should continue as the full circulation moves inland, with Chantal likely weakening back to a tropical depression later today. The majority of the global and hurricane-regional models then show the circulation opening up into a trough after 36 h, though its likely Chantal's remnant moisture will continue onward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States after this time period. Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds and rainfall to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area through this morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina will cause some flash flooding concerns from Tropical Storm Chantal today and across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 33.6N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 34.9N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 36.3N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/1800Z 37.7N 76.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 08:43:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 08:43:54 GMT