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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and significant severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more information. The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado. Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578 and Watch #489 for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/ ...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS... Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday, with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western NE/KS. ...Central Plains to IN/MI... A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with occasional intense downdrafts. ...NC... TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating, and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong. Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over eastern NC. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the Four Corners states. Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential. To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts. ..Jewell.. 07/06/2025 Read more

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0489 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 6 19:00:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1576 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST
Mesoscale Discussion 1576 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061709Z - 061915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging gusts are possible with the stronger storms/clusters. Widespread storm organization is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 1715 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed initial diurnal thunderstorm activity was beginning to increase in coverage across portions of the mid MS and lower OH Valleys. Area surface observations show strong heating along a weak front with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s F across a very moist air mass. Modest mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) amid the warm and moist air mass will support strong buoyancy (MUCAPE ~3000 J/kg). Continued heating and weak ascent from the front and a subtle trough aloft will allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. Despite the large buoyancy, deep-layer shear is minimal, with most of the region observing less than 20 kt. This strongly suggests a pulse multi-cellular storm mode. Some clustering/upscale growth is possible with time as individual outflows consolidate. However, this appears limited to areas with locally greater storm coverage, and broader storm organization appears very unlikely. This will favor only sporadic stronger downdraft pulses. Given this and modest lapse rates aloft, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Conditions will continue to be monitored, but the limited storm/severe coverage suggests a WW is unlikely. ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG... LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 38269381 38819201 40548820 41758662 41678534 40748472 39498475 37638699 36718887 36109124 35999289 36079367 38269381 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more