Aggregator

838
ABPZ20 KNHC 062314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist in association with
an area of low pressure located about 500 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system could
still become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves
westward into unfavorable environmental conditions on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584 ..WEINMAN..07/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125- 070040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-157-070040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-021-031-070040- Read more

WW 489 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 061920Z - 070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify through the afternoon off the foothills of northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming. A few severe storms are expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts through the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast of Torrington WY to 50 miles south southeast of Limon CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A cut off low off in the northeast Pacific will begin to push northeastward into northern CA on Day 3/Tuesday, aided by an additional mid-level trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced downslope winds in conjunction with increasing mid-level flow and gap winds through the Columbia River Gorge will bring a fire weather threat to much of the Columbia River Basin Tuesday. Farther south, isolated dry thunderstorms with minimal rainfall will bring a threat of new fire starts over receptive fuels across central OR. Dry and breezy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns across southern NV and far western UT as well. ...Day 4/Wednesday... The northern CA low will advance into the Great Basin region Wednesday. A corridor of enhanced mid-level winds and daytime mixing within a deep/dry boundary layer will support breezy conditions across much of NV and portions of western UT elevating wildfire spread potential within dry fuels. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A mid-level ridge will build over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter part of the week reintroducing above normal temperatures to much of the West by the weekend (Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday). Thunderstorm threat will largely be confined to southern Arizona and along and east of the Continental Divide as the ridge builds across the region. ..Williams.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1582 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1582 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...north-central North Carolina into far southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062044Z - 062215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado or strong wind gust will remain possible with the convection near the remnant core of TD Chantal. DISCUSSION...Afternoon imagery shows the remnants of TD Chantal located across portions of north-central NC near 34.4 deg N 79.2 deg W. Within the broader precip shield, a few deeper convective towers have remained strong with occasional cyclonic rotation observed. Enhanced low-level shear (0-1km SRH near 200 m2/s2) near the remnant center will remain strong enough to support occasional low-level mesocyclones with this convection. Despite weak buoyancy (MLCAPE (~500 J/kg) the moist surface environment and some deeper storms may remain capable of a brief tornado two and damaging gust into this evening. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, and the interaction of the circulation with higher terrain to the west should slowly limit the threat tonight. ..Lyons.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35307970 35618006 36217998 36867950 36907877 36587833 36477861 36077903 35617917 35317918 35307970 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1581 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062026Z - 062200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a few supercells, may pose a risk for damaging gusts and small hail this afternoon/evening. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 2020 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed convection was strengthening across portions of Maine. As temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s, around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE has developed with dewpoints in the 60s. While not overly strong, this buoyancy should continue to support occasional stronger updrafts with convection across the region. Deep-layer shear is supportive of storm organization with the KCBW VAD showing an elongated hodograph and 30-45 kt of bulk shear. Weak mid-level rotation has already been observed and the environment suggests a few supercell/organized multi cell structures are possible. With poor lapse rates and relatively limited buoyancy, damaging gusts still appear to be the primary risk. However, some small hail and a brief tornado are possible with the stronger rotating storms. HRRR guidance and observations suggests additional storm development/intensification is plausible this afternoon with more storms developing/moving in from eastern Canada this evening. While some severe risk is possible, confidence in severe coverage is low owing to weak forcing and limited buoyancy. Convective trends are being monitored, but a WW is currently unlikely. ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 45327107 47017003 47546872 46806725 45486706 44986795 44606972 44637058 45327107 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1580 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1580 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061918Z - 062145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms emanating off the southern Rockies will pose an isolated severe wind/hail threat through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development within the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento mountains is evident in recent GOES imagery. Weak mid-level flow over the region will likely result in slow storm propagation off the higher terrain, but as this occurs storms will eventually move into an unseasonably moist air mass downstream (dewpoint values in the 75th-90th percentile for early July). This moisture is contributing to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE that should promote thunderstorm maintenance, and possibly intensification, through late evening. A combination of semi-discrete cells and propagating clusters is expected with an attendant threat for isolated large hail (most likely near/below 1.25 inch in diameter) and sporadic severe wind gusts. The overall severe threat is expected to remain relatively isolated given the modest kinematic environment, which should preclude the need for watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 33030448 32680468 32490487 32390508 32420536 32660576 32930586 33280589 35630566 36190559 36640546 36800533 36890500 36930461 36830414 36690345 36310317 36060313 33030448 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0490 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0490 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more