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MD 1569 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487... Valid 052014Z - 052215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds is increasing across southeast Montana downstream of an organized MCS. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a cluster of thunderstorms has grown upscale into an organized MCS with a history of producing severe winds (a 55 knot gust was recently noted at KBIL/Billings, MT). Ahead of the MCS, temperatures continue to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s within a diffuse baroclinic zone extending from southeast MT to the southeast into the Black Hills region. Winds within this baroclinic zone are slowly veering to the southeast, resulting in a modest increase in low-level moisture transport immediately downstream of the approaching squall line. Consequently, buoyancy values have begun to increase across southeast MT with recent RAP/mesoanalysis estimates showing MLCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg. The recent development of shallow cumulus within this region supports this idea of increasing moisture content/buoyancy ahead of the squall line. As such, the expectation is that this line may see further intensification in the coming hours, and will continue to pose a severe wind threat downstream with localized gusts upwards of 60-80 mph possible. With time, a rightward turn to the southeast is possible as the line approaches the eastern MT border and storm propagation becomes increasingly influenced by the diffuse baroclinic zone. ..Moore.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 45310832 45610830 45850840 46080848 46240862 46320857 46760664 46840578 46830488 46720449 46610433 46220418 45820417 45450425 45220440 45110468 45040516 45120591 45250680 45280743 45250786 45180816 45240831 45310832 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 20:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 20:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT

MD 1568 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Iowa and adjacent parts of Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051907Z - 052130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon hours across the region. An isolated damaging wind gust may be possible with the strongest and most organized storms, but a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A prefrontal north-northeast to south-southwest-oriented band of storms across Iowa and Wisconsin ahead of a midlevel impulse has begun strengthening and deepening this afternoon. Relatively clear skies ahead of these storms has resulted in surface heating and modest destabilization (~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE per recent mesoanalysis). Recent VWPs from ARX indicate around 30 knots of deep-layer shear, supporting the possibility of at least some storm organization. The poor midlevel lapse rates, however, will likely limit the overall severe threat. With over 30 knots of flow around 1-km AGL and relatively steep low-level lapse rates, isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible with the strongest storms. ..Jirak/Hart.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 41329293 42059216 42759144 43499090 44608998 44998967 45568852 45248786 44338806 43148877 42608903 41908967 41529051 41239149 41039253 41029295 41329293 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569 ..MOORE..07/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-005-011-017-021-025-027-033-055-065-069-071-075-079-087- 103-105-109-111-052140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN BLAINE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON FERGUS GARFIELD MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD TREASURE VALLEY WIBAUX YELLOWSTONE WYC005-011-019-033-045-052140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK JOHNSON SHERIDAN WESTON Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 20:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 20:34:34 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 111 FONT13 KNHC 052033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 16 4(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WILMINGTON NC 34 14 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 34 35 4(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) FLORENCE SC 34 7 10(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 44 10(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) LITTLE RIVER 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 52 12(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MYRTLE BEACH 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 46 12(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CHARLESTON SC 34 24 6(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CHARLESTON SC 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 398 WTNT43 KNHC 052033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 The satellite presentation of Chantal has not changed much throughout the day with convective banding and a concentrated area of deep convection located over the eastern semicircle of the storm. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated Chantal through midday found a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 51 kt which supported the increase in winds to 40 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. With no significant change in structure since that time, the intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this evening. The moderate shear that has been affecting Chantal is forecast to decrease some this evening, however drier mid-level air appears to be being entrained into the western part of the circulation. Therefore only slight strengthening is predicted before Chantal reaches the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday. After landfall, steady weakening should occur and the system is expected to open up into a trough by Monday. Recent fixes show that Chantal has begun moving a little faster toward the north with an initial motion estimate of 360/6. The track guidance suggests that the storm will turn north- northwestward between a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a narrow mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. A turn to the northeast is expected after landfall as Chantal becomes more embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the TVCA multi-model consensus, which is close to the previous NHC forecast. Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds and rainfall to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas will cause flash flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 31.9N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown