Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 5

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 460 WTNT33 KNHC 052033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...CHANTAL MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 78.7W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this evening and overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 5

1 month 1 week ago
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 685 WTNT23 KNHC 052032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 78.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 78.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster

SPC MD 1567

1 month 1 week ago
MD 1567 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1567 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast Wyoming into Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051904Z - 052100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms developing within the central Rockies/High Plains will pose a severe wind threat through the afternoon and evening hours. Watch issuance is possible as the severe threat becomes more widespread later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Steady growth of agitated cumulus is noted across central to northern CO in recent GOES imagery with several deeper towers beginning to produce steady lightning flashes within the higher terrain. This comes as diurnally-driven orographic ascent increases within a weakly capped environment, and temperatures in the High Plains begin to approach convective temperatures for surface-based parcels. Any lingering inhibition should be removed within the next 1-2 hours as temperatures continue to warm into the upper 70s and low/mid 80s, resulting in an increase in thunderstorm coverage within the higher terrain and across central to eastern CO. Through mid-afternoon, thunderstorms spreading into - or developing across - the High Plains will begin intensifying within an environment characterized by modest buoyancy (MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg) but deep, well-mixed boundary layers and 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment will promote strong downdraft accelerations, increasing cold pool production/depth, and eventual upscale growth into one or more organized clusters. While sporadic severe gusts and large hail (most likely near/below 1.25 inch in diameter) will be possible with initially semi-discrete cells, a more robust wind threat may materialize later this afternoon as organized clusters/line segments emerge across far southeast WY into central/eastern CO. Latest CAM solutions continue to hint that gusts between 60-70 mph will be possible with such clusters/lines. Convective trends will be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if/when this scenario becomes more apparent. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40280330 39710303 39290249 38920203 38480178 38120181 37940222 38000306 38280384 38550446 38780498 39090532 40890568 41210561 41530542 41730509 41770465 41620423 41270376 40280330 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC MD 1566

1 month 1 week ago
MD 1566 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL MONTANA TO NORTHERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Central Montana to northern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051721Z - 051945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Weak convection developing within the northern Rockies will intensify over the next few hours as it moves into central Montana and northern Wyoming. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is probable early this afternoon as storms pose an increasing severe threat. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows clusters of agitated cumulus and a few weak thunderstorms developing across far northwest WY and within the mountain ranges of central MT. Ascent associated with an approaching upper low combined with continued daytime heating will promote further development/maturation of convection over the next several hours. Latest forecast guidance suggests that lingering inhibition should be largely removed as temperatures climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. This is expected to occur between 18-20 UTC and should happen as weak/shallow convection overspreads somewhat richer low-level moisture in place at lower elevations across central MT to northern WY. This will result in an overall intensification of thunderstorms during this time frame. Moderate flow associated with the mid-level wave will support effective shear values on the order of 30-40 knots. As such, a few supercells appear likely with an attendant risk for large hail (possibly as large as 2 inches). This threat appears most probable along the MT/WY border where low-level moisture is relatively higher ahead of a weak outflow boundary and dewpoints remain in the mid/upper 50s. With time, increasing boundary-layer depth through the late afternoon should promote greater cold pool production and gradual upscale growth with an increasing severe wind threat. Given these concerns, watch issuance is anticipated in the coming hours as convection continues to develop. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 44000610 43620651 43550733 43770801 43980841 44540870 47160899 47580891 47890861 48100805 48130760 48100700 47850667 45490585 44920578 44390589 44000610 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 5, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Central to Northern Plains... A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area. ...Upstate NY into ME... A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode convection, with areas of damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/05/2025 Read more