Aggregator

WW 0314 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 314 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 314 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-021-049-055-065-075-089-101-121-129-135-137-260940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLAY FULTON GREENE IZARD LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON RANDOLPH SEARCY SHARP STONE ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-157-165- 181-185-191-193-199-260940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 0311 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FYV TO 5 WSW GMJ TO 40 NE JLN TO 45 N SGF. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-260940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-029-043-057-059-077-097-105-109-119-131-141-145-167-209- 213-260940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS GREENE JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN NEWTON POLK STONE TANEY OKC041-260940- Read more

WW 0311 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FYV TO 5 WSW GMJ TO 40 NE JLN TO 45 N SGF. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-260940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-029-043-057-059-077-097-105-109-119-131-141-145-167-209- 213-260940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS GREENE JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN NEWTON POLK STONE TANEY OKC041-260940- Read more

WW 0311 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FYV TO 5 WSW GMJ TO 40 NE JLN TO 45 N SGF. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-260940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-029-043-057-059-077-097-105-109-119-131-141-145-167-209- 213-260940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS GREENE JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN NEWTON POLK STONE TANEY OKC041-260940- Read more

WW 0311 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FYV TO 5 WSW GMJ TO 40 NE JLN TO 45 N SGF. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-260940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-029-043-057-059-077-097-105-109-119-131-141-145-167-209- 213-260940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS GREENE JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN NEWTON POLK STONE TANEY OKC041-260940- Read more

WW 0311 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FYV TO 5 WSW GMJ TO 40 NE JLN TO 45 N SGF. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-260940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-029-043-057-059-077-097-105-109-119-131-141-145-167-209- 213-260940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS GREENE JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN NEWTON POLK STONE TANEY OKC041-260940- Read more

WW 0311 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FYV TO 5 WSW GMJ TO 40 NE JLN TO 45 N SGF. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-260940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-029-043-057-059-077-097-105-109-119-131-141-145-167-209- 213-260940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS GREENE JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN NEWTON POLK STONE TANEY OKC041-260940- Read more

WW 311 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 260200Z - 261000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 311 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 900 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Eastern Kansas Western Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 900 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of severe thunderstorms, including supercells and linear bands, are forecast to move east into the Watch area this evening and persist into the overnight. The stronger supercells will potentially be capable of a tornado risk, in addition to a threat for large hail and severe gusts. Eventual upscale growth into one or more severe linear bands of storms is expected and the threat will primarily transition to a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Leavenworth KS to 35 miles west southwest of Fayetteville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 307...WW 308...WW 309...WW 310... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0313 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E FST TO 20 NNW BWD. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC083-095-105-235-383-399-413-451-260940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT IRION REAGAN RUNNELS SCHLEICHER TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0313 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E FST TO 20 NNW BWD. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC083-095-105-235-383-399-413-451-260940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT IRION REAGAN RUNNELS SCHLEICHER TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0968 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 311... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0968 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...south-central and southeastern Missouri into northern Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 311... Valid 260603Z - 260800Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 311 continues. SUMMARY...Storms continue moving eastward across central and southern Missouri and now, portions of far northwestern Arkansas -- within WW 311. As storms continue eastward, new WW issuance is anticipated. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows strong/locally severe storms, including a pair of supercells (one crossing Polk and Dallas Counties in Missouri and the other over Delaware County Oklahoma and moving into Benton County Arkansas), moving eastward into/across the Ozarks area. Downstream from these storms, RAP-based objective analysis shows a favorably unstable airmass to the southwest of a warm front that roughly bisects Missouri from northwest to southeast. Given the available warm-sector airmass, and favorably strong/veering flow with height indicated across this region, it would appear that severe risk will continue to expand downstream from WW 311 over the next 1 to 2 hours, likely warranting new WW issuance. ..Edwards.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35779483 36539466 37939318 38359242 38229072 37378979 35829059 35779483 Read more

WW 0313 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE MAF TO 25 SSW ABI. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 313 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC081-083-095-105-235-383-399-413-451-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT IRION REAGAN RUNNELS SCHLEICHER TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0311 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BVO TO 35 SSE CNU TO 50 NNE SGF. ..GOSS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 311 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-143-260840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON WASHINGTON KSC019-021-035-099-125-260840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY LABETTE MONTGOMERY MOC009-011-029-043-057-059-077-097-105-109-119-131-145-167-209- 213-260840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CAMDEN Read more

WW 0314 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0314 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more