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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. ...Eastern States/Southeast... An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with additional storm development/intensification as the air mass modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV, in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013. Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes regionally. ...Southern Plains including North/Central Texas... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across a broad part of North/central Texas by mid/late afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds gusts are the greatest concerns in the presence of large buoyancy and supercell-favorable deep-layer shear. The most probable area for potentially intense deep convection will be near the stalled/slow-moving front and east of the dryline, including a corridor across North Texas/Big Country into central Texas including the Concho Valley and Hill Country vicinity. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few small clusters could evolve by evening. Later tonight, additional elevated/potentially severe storms will probably form across western/southern Oklahoma and western North Texas to the north of the surface front. ...Midwest including Iowa/Illinois... A clipper-type shortwave trough over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa this morning will continue southeastward today toward the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture (50s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited in the wake of the primary cold front approaching the Appalachians, but adequate moisture in the presence of steepening low/mid-level lapse rates could yield some storms capable of strong/gusty winds and possibly some hail during the mid/late afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/27/2024 Read more