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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be relatively minimal for Monday. Although the very dry air mass currently in place across NM and western TX will linger into early next week, winds will be calmer amid building surface high pressure. Some areas of Far West Texas and far southeastern New Mexico may see localized elevated fire weather conditions, as some high-resolution guidance hints at 10-15 mph sustained winds around peak heating. However, the overall poor agreement among ensemble guidance for sustaining elevated wind speeds (15+ mph), coupled with the spatially limited nature of the threat, precludes introducing any risk areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0318 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0318 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0975 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...FAR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...EXTREME WESTERN VIRGINIA...EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0975 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...far eastern Kentucky...far northeast Tennessee...far southern West Virginia...extreme western Virginia...extreme western North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261713Z - 261845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the central Appalachians region as a line of storms approaches from the west. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though a QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance will be needed soon to address the increasing severe threat. DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS continues to rapidly track eastward across the OH and TN Valley areas with an extensive history of damaging gusts, and numerous measured 45+ mph gusts (as sampled by the Kentucky Mesonet). Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to near 80F amid mid 60s F dewpoints, with MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear (with vectors oriented normal to the leading line of the approaching storms) is rapidly increasing to 50 kts as a 500 mb speed max approaches the central Appalachians. As such, damaging gusts are expected to continue east of Tornado Watch 315 for at least a few more hours, and a WW issuance will be needed downstream. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 36168080 35708159 35618242 35798314 36018352 37078335 38048243 38328141 37858071 37098055 36168080 Read more

WW 0315 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CHA TO 50 SE LOZ. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-093-105-173-262340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT KNOX LOUDON UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0315 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CHA TO 50 SE LOZ. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-093-105-173-262340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT KNOX LOUDON UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0315 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HOP TO 10 ENE CKV TO 15 NE BWG TO 45 SSE SDF TO 30 NE SDF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0000 ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-013-021-045-049-051-053-057-065-067-079-087- 109-113-121-125-129-137-141-147-151-155-167-169-171-173-179-189- 197-199-203-207-211-213-215-217-219-227-229-231-235-239- 261940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BELL BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ESTILL FAYETTE GARRARD GREEN JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX LAUREL LEE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON OWSLEY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR TODD WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITLEY WOODFORD Read more

WW 0315 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HOP TO 10 ENE CKV TO 15 NE BWG TO 45 SSE SDF TO 30 NE SDF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0000 ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-013-021-045-049-051-053-057-065-067-079-087- 109-113-121-125-129-137-141-147-151-155-167-169-171-173-179-189- 197-199-203-207-211-213-215-217-219-227-229-231-235-239- 261940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BELL BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ESTILL FAYETTE GARRARD GREEN JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX LAUREL LEE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON OWSLEY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR TODD WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITLEY WOODFORD Read more

WW 0315 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HOP TO 10 ENE CKV TO 15 NE BWG TO 45 SSE SDF TO 30 NE SDF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0000 ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-013-021-045-049-051-053-057-065-067-079-087- 109-113-121-125-129-137-141-147-151-155-167-169-171-173-179-189- 197-199-203-207-211-213-215-217-219-227-229-231-235-239- 261940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BELL BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ESTILL FAYETTE GARRARD GREEN JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX LAUREL LEE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON OWSLEY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR TODD WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITLEY WOODFORD Read more

WW 0315 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HOP TO 10 ENE CKV TO 15 NE BWG TO 45 SSE SDF TO 30 NE SDF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0000 ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 315 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-013-021-045-049-051-053-057-065-067-079-087- 109-113-121-125-129-137-141-147-151-155-167-169-171-173-179-189- 197-199-203-207-211-213-215-217-219-227-229-231-235-239- 261940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BELL BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ESTILL FAYETTE GARRARD GREEN JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX LAUREL LEE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON OWSLEY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR TODD WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITLEY WOODFORD Read more

WW 315 TORNADO IN KY TN 261355Z - 262000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 315 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 855 AM until 300 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A bowing complex of severe thunderstorms will continue moving rapidly east, with widespread damaging winds likely. Some gusts may exceed 75 mph. A few tornadoes are also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles northwest of Fort Campbell KY to 40 miles south southeast of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 314... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-029-031-035-041-047-065-075-115-135-137-139-155- 161-177-179-261940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN HENRY JAY OHIO RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SWITZERLAND UNION WAYNE WELLS KYC011-015-017-019-023-037-041-043-063-069-077-081-089-097-115- 117-127-135-161-165-175-181-187-191-201-205-237-261940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOONE BOURBON BOYD BRACKEN CAMPBELL CARROLL CARTER ELLIOTT FLEMING GALLATIN GRANT GREENUP HARRISON JOHNSON KENTON LAWRENCE LEWIS Read more

WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-029-031-035-041-047-065-075-115-135-137-139-155- 161-177-179-261940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN HENRY JAY OHIO RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SWITZERLAND UNION WAYNE WELLS KYC011-015-017-019-023-037-041-043-063-069-077-081-089-097-115- 117-127-135-161-165-175-181-187-191-201-205-237-261940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOONE BOURBON BOYD BRACKEN CAMPBELL CARROLL CARTER ELLIOTT FLEMING GALLATIN GRANT GREENUP HARRISON JOHNSON KENTON LAWRENCE LEWIS Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC025-071-095-115-119-131-133-153-159-193-195-261940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREATHITT FLOYD HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT LESLIE LETCHER MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-027-035-059-087-097-111-115-121-159- 171-173-189-193-197-199-261940- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE HAYWOOD IREDELL MCDOWELL MADISON MITCHELL ROWAN SURRY SWAIN WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC025-071-095-115-119-131-133-153-159-193-195-261940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREATHITT FLOYD HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT LESLIE LETCHER MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-027-035-059-087-097-111-115-121-159- 171-173-189-193-197-199-261940- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE HAYWOOD IREDELL MCDOWELL MADISON MITCHELL ROWAN SURRY SWAIN WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY Read more

MD 0974 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 315... FOR NORTHERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0974 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...northern and middle Tennessee into central Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 315... Valid 261652Z - 261815Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 315 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 315, both with a bow echo across eastern KY into northern TN, and with another round of storms approaching from the west. Damaging gusts are possible with both lines of storms, and QLCS tornadoes cannot be ruled out with storms interacting with a pristine airmass. DISCUSSION...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are currently progressing across the TN Valley area. The first is a longer-lived QLCS with a history of damaging gusts (some severe) that is currently moving across eastern KY and far northern TN. The second is an intensifying line of storms trailing the previous QLCS in an overturned airmass. The first QLCS should continue to progress eastward with a damaging gust threat for at least a couple more hours. With the line oriented roughly perpendicular to the deep-layer shear vectors, a QLCS tornado remains possible. The second line of storms to the west is traversing a stable airmass and is currently ingesting elevated but buoyant air parcels given appreciable 850 mb WAA. However, southern portions of this line may cross the cold pool boundary of the previous QLCS into surface-based, buoyant air, characterized by surface temperatures and dewpoints into the low 80s F/70sF (respectively). In this environment, MLCAPE increases to 2000 J/kg amid 60+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, damaging gusts and perhaps a brief QLCS tornado could accompany portion of this line that can ingest surface-based parcels. ..Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36928809 37358588 37988463 38058399 37338369 36508366 35778399 35538494 35438636 35468737 35588795 36078857 36928809 Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0317 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0973 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OH...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0973 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Indiana...northeastern Kentucky...western and central OH...western West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261620Z - 261745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat, though a couple of QLCS tornadoes are also possible. A WW issuance will be needed in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...A QLCS, with a recent history of damaging gusts, continues to progress eastward toward a destabilizing airmass. Surface temperatures are warming to over 80 F amid upper 60s F dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg in spots. In additions, 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear are in place, with the shear vectors oriented roughly normal to the eastward progressing QLCS. As such, damaging gusts (some exceeding severe limits) should accompany this QLCS downstream, and a couple of line-embedded tornadoes also cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance will be needed in the next hour or two to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 38248510 39428609 40248629 41548525 41638388 40778202 39358135 38288168 37988229 38098342 38248510 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast Monday into Monday night, with severe wind, hail and potentially a tornado or two expected. ...Synopsis... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface low will exist near Lower Michigan Monday morning. This surface low will deepen through the day as it moves northeast of Lake Superior by the evening. A cold front will extend from this surface low across western Lake Erie to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at 12Z and cross the Appalachians by 00Z. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front during the afternoon into the evening hours. This cold front will stall near the Gulf Coast and back into northern Texas. A dryline will retreat westward during the day as weak lee troughing and strengthening southwesterly flow advects low-level moisture westward. ...Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina... A decaying MCS will likely result in cloud cover across this region Monday morning. However, some clearing is expected by late morning to early afternoon. Convective temperatures near 80F should be met by early afternoon with scattered thunderstorm development ahead of the cold front. Effective shear between 30 and 35 knots will support both multicell and supercell clusters. Thermodynamically the best environment should be across Virginia and North Carolina. However, stronger flow across eastern Pennsylvania may be more supportive of supercells and thus a greater hail threat despite the weaker thermodynamics. In addition, RAP forecast soundings show low-level shear supportive of a tornado or two across most of the warm sector from North Carolina into eastern Pennsylvania and the Delmarva. ...Southeast... There is considerable uncertainty regarding the expected overnight MCS and how it may impact severe weather across Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina on Monday. Most forecast soundings show significant inhibition which would support CAM solutions which show the MCS decaying during the morning. Strong westerly flow and an EML may allow for recovery in the wake of any morning MCS with a threat for storms along the cold front during the afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s to near 90 and strong instability develops. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with this activity. A lack of convergence along the front and weaker large-scale ascent should result in more sparse storm development farther west along the front through MS and LA during the afternoon/evening. ...Texas and southwest Oklahoma... Moisture will recover northwest through the day south of a stalled front as a result of strengthening southwesterly flow. As boundary layer moisture deepens from southeast to northwest through the day, a few storms may develop as the airmass becomes uncapped. Forcing should be quite nebulous which will keep storm coverage isolated, but environmentally, extreme (5000+ J/kg) MLCAPE and effective shear over 60 knots would support a conditional threat for large to very large hail and potentially a tornado. The best chance for storm development will likely be across northwest Texas during the late evening as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level moisture advection and isentropic ascent increases. ...Midwest... Storms are expected to develop from southern Minnesota and move quickly southeast across Iowa and into Illinois Monday afternoon/early evening amid cold air advection aloft and sufficient remnant moisture for 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong unidirectional westerly flow may support some stronger downdrafts capable of wind damage. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast Monday into Monday night, with severe wind, hail and potentially a tornado or two expected. ...Synopsis... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface low will exist near Lower Michigan Monday morning. This surface low will deepen through the day as it moves northeast of Lake Superior by the evening. A cold front will extend from this surface low across western Lake Erie to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at 12Z and cross the Appalachians by 00Z. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front during the afternoon into the evening hours. This cold front will stall near the Gulf Coast and back into northern Texas. A dryline will retreat westward during the day as weak lee troughing and strengthening southwesterly flow advects low-level moisture westward. ...Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina... A decaying MCS will likely result in cloud cover across this region Monday morning. However, some clearing is expected by late morning to early afternoon. Convective temperatures near 80F should be met by early afternoon with scattered thunderstorm development ahead of the cold front. Effective shear between 30 and 35 knots will support both multicell and supercell clusters. Thermodynamically the best environment should be across Virginia and North Carolina. However, stronger flow across eastern Pennsylvania may be more supportive of supercells and thus a greater hail threat despite the weaker thermodynamics. In addition, RAP forecast soundings show low-level shear supportive of a tornado or two across most of the warm sector from North Carolina into eastern Pennsylvania and the Delmarva. ...Southeast... There is considerable uncertainty regarding the expected overnight MCS and how it may impact severe weather across Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina on Monday. Most forecast soundings show significant inhibition which would support CAM solutions which show the MCS decaying during the morning. Strong westerly flow and an EML may allow for recovery in the wake of any morning MCS with a threat for storms along the cold front during the afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s to near 90 and strong instability develops. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with this activity. A lack of convergence along the front and weaker large-scale ascent should result in more sparse storm development farther west along the front through MS and LA during the afternoon/evening. ...Texas and southwest Oklahoma... Moisture will recover northwest through the day south of a stalled front as a result of strengthening southwesterly flow. As boundary layer moisture deepens from southeast to northwest through the day, a few storms may develop as the airmass becomes uncapped. Forcing should be quite nebulous which will keep storm coverage isolated, but environmentally, extreme (5000+ J/kg) MLCAPE and effective shear over 60 knots would support a conditional threat for large to very large hail and potentially a tornado. The best chance for storm development will likely be across northwest Texas during the late evening as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level moisture advection and isentropic ascent increases. ...Midwest... Storms are expected to develop from southern Minnesota and move quickly southeast across Iowa and into Illinois Monday afternoon/early evening amid cold air advection aloft and sufficient remnant moisture for 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong unidirectional westerly flow may support some stronger downdrafts capable of wind damage. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast Monday into Monday night, with severe wind, hail and potentially a tornado or two expected. ...Synopsis... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface low will exist near Lower Michigan Monday morning. This surface low will deepen through the day as it moves northeast of Lake Superior by the evening. A cold front will extend from this surface low across western Lake Erie to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at 12Z and cross the Appalachians by 00Z. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front during the afternoon into the evening hours. This cold front will stall near the Gulf Coast and back into northern Texas. A dryline will retreat westward during the day as weak lee troughing and strengthening southwesterly flow advects low-level moisture westward. ...Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina... A decaying MCS will likely result in cloud cover across this region Monday morning. However, some clearing is expected by late morning to early afternoon. Convective temperatures near 80F should be met by early afternoon with scattered thunderstorm development ahead of the cold front. Effective shear between 30 and 35 knots will support both multicell and supercell clusters. Thermodynamically the best environment should be across Virginia and North Carolina. However, stronger flow across eastern Pennsylvania may be more supportive of supercells and thus a greater hail threat despite the weaker thermodynamics. In addition, RAP forecast soundings show low-level shear supportive of a tornado or two across most of the warm sector from North Carolina into eastern Pennsylvania and the Delmarva. ...Southeast... There is considerable uncertainty regarding the expected overnight MCS and how it may impact severe weather across Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina on Monday. Most forecast soundings show significant inhibition which would support CAM solutions which show the MCS decaying during the morning. Strong westerly flow and an EML may allow for recovery in the wake of any morning MCS with a threat for storms along the cold front during the afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s to near 90 and strong instability develops. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with this activity. A lack of convergence along the front and weaker large-scale ascent should result in more sparse storm development farther west along the front through MS and LA during the afternoon/evening. ...Texas and southwest Oklahoma... Moisture will recover northwest through the day south of a stalled front as a result of strengthening southwesterly flow. As boundary layer moisture deepens from southeast to northwest through the day, a few storms may develop as the airmass becomes uncapped. Forcing should be quite nebulous which will keep storm coverage isolated, but environmentally, extreme (5000+ J/kg) MLCAPE and effective shear over 60 knots would support a conditional threat for large to very large hail and potentially a tornado. The best chance for storm development will likely be across northwest Texas during the late evening as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level moisture advection and isentropic ascent increases. ...Midwest... Storms are expected to develop from southern Minnesota and move quickly southeast across Iowa and into Illinois Monday afternoon/early evening amid cold air advection aloft and sufficient remnant moisture for 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong unidirectional westerly flow may support some stronger downdrafts capable of wind damage. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 Read more