Aggregator

475
ABPZ20 KNHC 262317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

WW 0322 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0322 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0322 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0322 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 322 SEVERE TSTM NC SC 262240Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western North Carolina and Piedmont Upstate South Carolina * Effective this Sunday evening from 640 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to pose a strong to severe thunderstorm risk this evening. Strong mid-level flow will support supercell development with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts (55-70 mph) are the primary hazards with the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest of Anderson SC to 25 miles southeast of Charlotte NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318...WW 319...WW 320...WW 321... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Smith Read more

MD 0985 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316...317...318... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO EXTREME WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...EXTREME WESTERN VIRGINIA...EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0985 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio into extreme western Pennsylvania...central West Virginia...extreme western Virginia...extreme western North Carolina...extreme eastern Tennessee Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316...317...318... Valid 262100Z - 262230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316, 317, 318 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 316-318. Strong wind gusts are the main threat with a persistent QLCS. Large hail is also possible across far eastern TN and western NC, where supercells are ongoing. DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS with a history of wind damage continues to move eastward across the central Appalachians, where surface temperatures are above the 80 F mark. As such, enough buoyancy exists to support strong wind gust potential with the QLCS for at least a few more hours. Along the TN/VA border area, supercell development has recently occurred, where MLCAPE has also climbed to over 2000 J/kg, coincident with 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Here, large hail is also a concern in addition to strong wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...GSP...MRX...ILN... LAT...LON 40868378 41048339 41388189 41168076 40258053 38378034 36288060 35758069 35638110 35548193 35558269 35538311 35708338 36078328 36408229 36798174 37518150 38848160 39638187 40318236 40868378 Read more

MD 0982 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0982 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of western and southern South Dakota into western and northern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262006Z - 262230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail or severe gusts are possible through the remainder of the afternoon. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Scattered multicellular/briefly transient supercellular thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity over the past few hours, with at least 1 report received of hail over 1 inch in diameter. These storms are developing over marginally buoyant airmass characterized by mainly steep low-level lapse rates. Given limited deep-layer shear, any storm that becomes strong should only do so for short periods of time, and a brief burst of marginally severe hail/wind cannot be completely ruled out. Some storms may merge cold pools later this afternoon, which may increase the severe gust threat slightly. Nonetheless, the severe threat will be isolated and brief at best, precluding the need of a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41380096 43260295 44390308 44800073 44219942 43209899 42259892 41589983 41380096 Read more

MD 0980 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND SURROUNDING AREAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0980 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...from parts of southern and southeast Missouri into far northeast Arkansas...southern Illinois...and across the Missouri Bootheel and surrounding areas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 261938Z - 262215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A strong tornado situation appears to be developing for later this afternoon and into the early evening. In addition, very large hail and eventual significant damaging winds may develop across the region. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows heating and rapid air mass recovery across southeast MO, where boundary layer clouds are developing, and, satellite derived PWAT indicates ample moisture. This is ahead of a cold front which is currently northwest of St. Louis and extends into southeast KS near a weak low. Surface observations show a very moist air mass with mid 70s F dewpoints spreading north out of AR, MS, and western TN as well, just south of the old/dissipating outflow boundary. A special 18Z LZK sounding shows strong shear, steep midlevel lapse rates and ample moisture. A capping inversion exits just above 850 mb, however, much less capping exists farther north into MO where lift will be increasing ahead of the surface trough. Forecast soundings across this region strong favor tornadic supercells as well, along with very large hail. Depending on storm mode later this evening, widespread damaging winds could also materialize. As such, the 20Z outlook will be upgraded to MODERATE RISK for the developing situation. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 37859215 38399163 38309039 38178966 37718877 36688826 35708839 36229169 36789229 37859215 Read more

WW 0321 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0321 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0321 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0321 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 321 SEVERE TSTM MD NC VA WV 262205Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 605 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Western Maryland North-Central North Carolina Western and South-Central Virginia Eastern West Virginia * Effective this Sunday evening from 605 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...An organized and long-lived squall line will likely continue into the Watch area this evening across western Virginia northward into far western Maryland. Strong to severe gusts ranging from 50-70 mph will be capable of wind damage. Farther south, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorm clusters will probably move into north-central North Carolina during the evening and potentially pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Martinsburg WV to 40 miles southeast of Greensboro NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318...WW 319...WW 320... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more