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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. Read more

WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW JKL TO 40 W HTS TO 35 NW HTS TO 40 W UNI TO 25 SSW CMH TO 25 E DAY TO 5 ESE DAY TO 20 W DAY TO 30 ENE MIE TO 30 NNW FWA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-075-262140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN JAY KYC019-043-063-089-127-165-175-205-237-262140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER ELLIOTT GREENUP LAWRENCE MENIFEE MORGAN ROWAN WOLFE OHC003-009-011-021-023-033-037-041-045-049-053-063-065-073-077- 079-083-087-089-091-097-101-105-107-109-115-117-125-127-129-137- 139-141-147-149-159-161-163-173-175-262140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW JKL TO 40 W HTS TO 35 NW HTS TO 40 W UNI TO 25 SSW CMH TO 25 E DAY TO 5 ESE DAY TO 20 W DAY TO 30 ENE MIE TO 30 NNW FWA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-075-262140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN JAY KYC019-043-063-089-127-165-175-205-237-262140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER ELLIOTT GREENUP LAWRENCE MENIFEE MORGAN ROWAN WOLFE OHC003-009-011-021-023-033-037-041-045-049-053-063-065-073-077- 079-083-087-089-091-097-101-105-107-109-115-117-125-127-129-137- 139-141-147-149-159-161-163-173-175-262140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC025-071-095-115-119-131-133-153-159-193-195-262140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREATHITT FLOYD HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT LESLIE LETCHER MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-027-035-059-087-097-111-115-121-159- 171-173-189-193-197-199-262140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE HAYWOOD IREDELL MCDOWELL MADISON MITCHELL ROWAN SURRY SWAIN WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC025-071-095-115-119-131-133-153-159-193-195-262140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREATHITT FLOYD HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT LESLIE LETCHER MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-027-035-059-087-097-111-115-121-159- 171-173-189-193-197-199-262140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE HAYWOOD IREDELL MCDOWELL MADISON MITCHELL ROWAN SURRY SWAIN WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY Read more

WW 0318 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 318 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-013-019-029-031-035-055-059-067-075-081-085-093-099- 103-111-119-121-133-151-153-155-157-169-262140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CUYAHOGA GEAUGA GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON LAKE LORAIN MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-019-031-039-049-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121- 125-129-262140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BUTLER CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE FAYETTE FOREST Read more

WW 0318 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 318 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-013-019-029-031-035-055-059-067-075-081-085-093-099- 103-111-119-121-133-151-153-155-157-169-262140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CUYAHOGA GEAUGA GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON LAKE LORAIN MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-019-031-039-049-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121- 125-129-262140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BUTLER CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE FAYETTE FOREST Read more

MD 0976 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0976 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261829Z - 262000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms over parts of southeast TX may persist with a risk for hail and damaging winds. Confidence in storm evolution is low and A WW is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 1820 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis showed isolated storms have developed along a low-level confluence axis near I-45 across southeast TX. Driven by increasing diurnal heating, localized confluence and subtle warm air advection aloft, these storms have continued to persist despite moderate MLCINH. Upper 70s to near 80s F surface dewpoints are supporting an incredibly moist air mass as temperatures rise into the low 90s F. While low-level lapse rates are poor, continued surface heating, and the deep/rich boundary-layer moisture will allow for 2500-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The magnitude of MLCAPE suggests established updrafts may continue and could intensify/redevelop. 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear could also support storm organization, though confidence in storm evolution is very low without large-scale forcing for ascent and warm temperatures aloft. Still, given the potential for strong updrafts and some risk for storm organization, isolated hail and damaging winds will be possible. Confidence in the overall evolution is very low, but convective trends will continued to be monitored. ..Lyons/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30779405 31089427 31359477 31449569 31219660 30969671 30699643 30459572 30319506 30589416 30779405 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be relatively minimal for Monday. Although the very dry air mass currently in place across NM and western TX will linger into early next week, winds will be calmer amid building surface high pressure. Some areas of Far West Texas and far southeastern New Mexico may see localized elevated fire weather conditions, as some high-resolution guidance hints at 10-15 mph sustained winds around peak heating. However, the overall poor agreement among ensemble guidance for sustaining elevated wind speeds (15+ mph), coupled with the spatially limited nature of the threat, precludes introducing any risk areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more