Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe storms are expected over much of Texas on Tuesday, with potential for significant damaging wind and areas of very large hail. ..Most of Central and Northern Texas...southern OK... A large area of moisture and instability will be in place Tuesday morning across the southern Plains, especially south of a stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across the Red River and into the ArkLaTex. Early day storms are expected due to substantial elevated instability across southern OK, and these may produce hail. An initial cluster/MCS may evolve out of this activity as it reinforced the boundary and moves into northern TX and perhaps as far as LA. South of the boundary, a very most and unstable air mass will exist with steep midlevel lapse rates beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Heating will lead to developing along a dryline over western TX, perhaps into far eastern NM, with a few large supercells producing damaging hail expected. As these cells progress east/southeast, and the main front shifts south, a focused corridor of damaging wind potential will develop into central TX. Given the degree of instability, favorable lapse rates aloft, sufficient westerly flow and strong model signal, several wind gusts over 80 mph are anticipated across the Enhanced Risk area as storms evolve into a highly organized MCS. These systems typically progress farther than depicted in model output, and therefore probabilities have been shunted eastward with lower probs to the TX Coast. Further details will be worked out in the Day 1 outlook. ...Northern ID/Western MT... A strong shortwave trough will move east across the region, with southwest midlevel flow around 50 kt. A surface trough/wind shift will develop into ID and western MT during the afternoon, with strong heating resulting in very steep lapse rates through a deep layer. The end result should be scattered convection developing after 21Z from far northeast OR across the central mountains of ID and into western MT. A few small bowing structures appear likely producing locally severe gusts, and some hail cannot be ruled out although overall shear will be marginal. ..Jewell.. 05/27/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z Only minor edits were made to expand the Elevated further northward in south-central New Mexico in alignment with latest trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more