Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to continue this evening and overnight across the eastern Ozark Plateau into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail will remain the primary concerns this evening before transitioning to a widespread severe wind threat (with embedded circulations) overnight. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio River Valley... Numerous supercells are ongoing as of 01 UTC across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley with multiple confirmed tornadoes noted over the past 1-2 hours per recent local storm reports and confirmed tornado warning tags. These cells are expected to persist for the next few hours amid a gradually improving kinematic environment (see MCD #994 for more regional details regarding this threat). To the northwest of the supercells, a developing severe MCS is becoming well organized and is forecast to push east/southeast through the overnight hours. With destabilization occurring ahead of the MCS across the lower OH River Valley (the 00 UTC BNA sounding shows rich low-level moisture with ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE), the potential for widespread damaging to severe winds appears to be increasing. Recent CAM guidance, including experimental WoFS ensemble guidance, appears to support this idea and depicts a swath of severe winds (including the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph) extending well into southern IL/IN and much of KY. Consequently, a wind-driven expansion of the Moderate risk area is warranted across parts of the lower OH River Valley. Despite the linear storm mode, favorable low-level SRH should support the potential for embedded circulations. See MCD #995 for more short-term details regarding the developing MCS and wind threat. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A residual QLCS continues to produce damaging winds across the Mid-Atlantic region despite outrunning favorable deep-layer wind shear. Downstream buoyancy remains favorable for some degree of line maintenance heading into the late evening hours, which should continue to support a damaging wind threat. Wind probabilities have been increased across this region to reflect this potential, though the threat is expected to diminish overnight amid increasing nocturnal stabilization and displacement from stronger forcing for ascent to the west. See MCD #993 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

MD 0994 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 320... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MO...AND NORTHEAST AR.
Mesoscale Discussion 0994 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern MO...and northeast AR. Concerning...Tornado Watch 320... Valid 262357Z - 270100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster of supercells with a history of producing tornadoes will continue eastward with a risk for strong to intense tornadoes. DISCUSSION...As of 2350 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster of supercells ongoing across southeastern MO within PDS Tornado Watch #320. Several of these storms have produced tornadoes over the past couple of hours. The environment ahead of these storms is strongly unstable with MLCAPE greater than 4000 J/kg which is very favorable for intense updrafts. Large ambient vorticity and enhanced low-level shear (ESRH >200 m2/s2) is present along a modified outflow boundary from southeast MO into northern AR and western TN/KY, supporting the potential for strong low-level mesocyclones. With STP values greater than 4, these storms will likely remain capable of strong to potentially intense tornadoes this evening. Eventual upscale growth is possible, but a significant tornado risk, along with very large hail and damaging winds remains likely for the next couple of hours. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 36708924 36578936 36468971 36479011 36509055 36549120 36609150 36809158 37049155 37309134 37659046 37629039 37468941 37118919 36708924 Read more

WW 0325 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0325 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0325 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0325 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0325 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0325 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0992 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 320... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MO...FAR SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN/CENTRAL KY...FAR SOUTHWEST IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0992 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Far Southeast MO...Far Southern IL...Western/Central KY...Far Southwest IN Concerning...Tornado Watch 320... Valid 262318Z - 270045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues. SUMMARY...Open warm sector initiation appears to be underway from far southeast Missouri across far southern Illinois into western/central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, are possible. Southern IN and western/central KY will likely need an additional Tornado Watch soon. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite has shown increasingly deep cumulus within the warm sector well ahead of the main cold front from far southwest MO across southern IL into southwest KY and far southwest IN. Some radar returns have been recently noted with this activity as well, giving increasing confidence that at least isolated convective initiation may be realized shortly. A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends across much of this region, resulting in notable low-level veering within the VAD profiles at PAH and HPX. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy exists across the region as well. Mesoanalysis estimates STP is currently from 3 to 5, with this high values expected to persist and expand northeastward with time. The result is an environment that is favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes. Very large hail up to 2.5" in diameter is possible as well. Some of this area is within the Tornado Watch 230, but those areas to its east including far southern IN and western KY will likely need an additional Tornado Watch soon. ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 38128933 38648795 38618586 36998615 36568934 37308980 38128933 Read more

MD 0993 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317...318...321... FOR EASTERN OH...WESTERN PA...WESTERN MD...EASTERN WV...CENTRAL VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0993 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Eastern OH...western PA...western MD...eastern WV...central VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317...318...321... Valid 262322Z - 270045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317, 318, 321 continues. SUMMARY...Some damaging-wind potential will spread northeastward through the evening. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS with a history of producing some wind damage is moving across eastern OH/western PA into parts of eastern WV/central VA. While midlevel lapse rates are weak and instability gradually decreases with eastward extent, earlier diurnal heating resulted in some steepening of low-level lapse rates, and MLCAPE may remain around 500 J/kg in advance of the line this evening, though with gradually increasing MLCINH. The QLCS will likely continue to remain somewhat organized until decreasing instability and increasing inhibition becomes prohibitive later this evening. Rather strong low-level flow (noted on regional VWPs) will continue to support some wind-damage potential with this QLCS as it advances northeastward. Some threat may eventually spread out of WW 318 and WW 321 into central PA, western MD, and northern/central VA, though the need for additional watch issuance remains uncertain. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... LAT...LON 37287955 39128015 40948107 41138111 41618053 41427948 39667867 37617818 37257851 37247927 37287955 Read more