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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma this afternoon and overnight. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential today and tonight will be focused along a composite cold frontal/outflow boundary draped from the Great Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast and westward into the southern Plains. 05 UTC surface observations reveal a mature surface low over the upper Great Lakes. A diffuse cold front is noted extending from the mid-MS/lower OH River Valleys (where a severe MCS is ongoing) into the southern Plains, with an additional cold frontal surge analyzed across parts of the Midwest. These features should migrate to the east/southeast over the next 12-24 hours as the synoptic surface low moves into the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight, driven primarily by large scale ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave (observed over the mid-MS/lower OH River Valleys at around 05 UTC). Although only modest deepening of the surface low is anticipated over the forecast period, mid to upper-level flow will likely remain fairly strong (40-60 knots between 700 to 500 mb) ahead of the upper wave. This will support moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of an expansive warm sector stretching from the Southern Plains into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and northward to the lower Great Lakes. Thunderstorms developing along the aforementioned cold front and/or outflow boundary will likely see some degree of organization with an attendant severe risk. ...Pennsylvania and western New York... Northward moisture return is ongoing across PA and NY in the wake of a decaying QLCS. Although lapse rates across the lower Great Lakes into PA will remain fairly marginal, increasing low-level moisture and diurnal heating should erode weak MLCIN by around 18 UTC. Concurrently, a weak mid-level perturbation, most likely associated with the remains of the ongoing MCS across the OH River Valley, will overspread the region around early afternoon resulting in scattered thunderstorm development. While buoyancy will be meager (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), 40-45 knot flow above the surface should mix down within stronger downdrafts, supporting a damaging/severe wind threat. A second round of thunderstorms is possible during the late afternoon/evening hours across western PA as a secondary cold frontal surge pushes east. The intensity of this activity will likely be dependent on the degree of overturning and air mass recovery in the wake of the early afternoon thunderstorms. However, a severe wind threat may materialize if sufficient recovery can occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass is currently in place across the Mid-Atlantic with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints observed from the Carolinas into MD. 6-7 K/km lapse rates are also noted in 00 UTC soundings, which should support 2000-2500 MLCAPE by mid-afternoon across the region. The approach of the upper wave should promote troughing in the lee of the Appalachians. It remains unclear whether convection will primarily be focused along the lee trough or along a residual outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS to the west. Regardless, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes if sufficient low-level SRH along and ahead of the boundary can be realized, as hinted by some model solutions. ...Southeast... The ongoing MCS is forecast to gradually decay as it moves into central/southern MS/AL/GA by 12 UTC, though embedded segments within the line may pose a severe threat at the start of the forecast period. Regardless, an outflow boundary should become apparent somewhere across the Southeastern states by mid-morning, though guidance varies on the exact placement. Weak capping is noted in 00 UTC soundings from across the region, suggesting that diurnal heating, aided by weak ascent along the boundary, should foster thunderstorm development by early afternoon. MLCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg combined with around 30 knots of deep-layer shear should allow for some initial storm organization, including the potential for a few supercells. Ambient low-level vorticity along the boundary may support a brief tornado threat with initial convection. However, mean west/southwesterly winds should yield poor boundary-normal deep-layer shear, which suggests storm interactions along the boundary may promote upscale growth by late afternoon with an increase in damaging to severe wind potential. ...Midwest... A mid-level perturbation is noted in water-vapor imagery across northern MT. This feature is forecast to reach the Midwest region by peak heating this afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft over a somewhat dry air mass should promote modest (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE. Deep-layer wind shear is expected to be marginal, but lift ahead of the vorticity maximum should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development with the potential for strong to severe winds - especially if more consolidated/organized clusters can become established. ...Texas into southwest Oklahoma... Surface observations show the cold front slowly moving south across central TX, but this boundary should become increasingly diffuse through the day amid strong diurnal heating across much of TX. Thermally-induced surface pressure falls to the west of a dryline (noted from west-central TX to the Big Bend region) will maintain east/southeasterly low-level winds through the day. This will not only maintain an influx of rich Gulf moisture (dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s), but will support hodograph elongation given 40-50 knot westerly flow aloft. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient heating will erode MLCIN by early afternoon, but weak confluence along the dryline and neutral to rising heights aloft may limit convective coverage. Consequently, confidence on storm coverage and location is low with considerable spread noted in 00z CAM solutions. However, this appears to be a low-probability, but potentially high impact scenario with the potential for significant hail (2 inches in diameter or larger), severe wind, and perhaps a tornado where storms can develop. Elevated convection appears possible well into the overnight hours across northern TX into southwest OK as isentropic ascent atop the stalled frontal boundary increases with the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. This activity should primarily pose a severe hail/wind threat that may persist into the early morning hours Tuesday. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma this afternoon and overnight. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential today and tonight will be focused along a composite cold frontal/outflow boundary draped from the Great Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast and westward into the southern Plains. 05 UTC surface observations reveal a mature surface low over the upper Great Lakes. A diffuse cold front is noted extending from the mid-MS/lower OH River Valleys (where a severe MCS is ongoing) into the southern Plains, with an additional cold frontal surge analyzed across parts of the Midwest. These features should migrate to the east/southeast over the next 12-24 hours as the synoptic surface low moves into the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight, driven primarily by large scale ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave (observed over the mid-MS/lower OH River Valleys at around 05 UTC). Although only modest deepening of the surface low is anticipated over the forecast period, mid to upper-level flow will likely remain fairly strong (40-60 knots between 700 to 500 mb) ahead of the upper wave. This will support moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of an expansive warm sector stretching from the Southern Plains into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and northward to the lower Great Lakes. Thunderstorms developing along the aforementioned cold front and/or outflow boundary will likely see some degree of organization with an attendant severe risk. ...Pennsylvania and western New York... Northward moisture return is ongoing across PA and NY in the wake of a decaying QLCS. Although lapse rates across the lower Great Lakes into PA will remain fairly marginal, increasing low-level moisture and diurnal heating should erode weak MLCIN by around 18 UTC. Concurrently, a weak mid-level perturbation, most likely associated with the remains of the ongoing MCS across the OH River Valley, will overspread the region around early afternoon resulting in scattered thunderstorm development. While buoyancy will be meager (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), 40-45 knot flow above the surface should mix down within stronger downdrafts, supporting a damaging/severe wind threat. A second round of thunderstorms is possible during the late afternoon/evening hours across western PA as a secondary cold frontal surge pushes east. The intensity of this activity will likely be dependent on the degree of overturning and air mass recovery in the wake of the early afternoon thunderstorms. However, a severe wind threat may materialize if sufficient recovery can occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass is currently in place across the Mid-Atlantic with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints observed from the Carolinas into MD. 6-7 K/km lapse rates are also noted in 00 UTC soundings, which should support 2000-2500 MLCAPE by mid-afternoon across the region. The approach of the upper wave should promote troughing in the lee of the Appalachians. It remains unclear whether convection will primarily be focused along the lee trough or along a residual outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS to the west. Regardless, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes if sufficient low-level SRH along and ahead of the boundary can be realized, as hinted by some model solutions. ...Southeast... The ongoing MCS is forecast to gradually decay as it moves into central/southern MS/AL/GA by 12 UTC, though embedded segments within the line may pose a severe threat at the start of the forecast period. Regardless, an outflow boundary should become apparent somewhere across the Southeastern states by mid-morning, though guidance varies on the exact placement. Weak capping is noted in 00 UTC soundings from across the region, suggesting that diurnal heating, aided by weak ascent along the boundary, should foster thunderstorm development by early afternoon. MLCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg combined with around 30 knots of deep-layer shear should allow for some initial storm organization, including the potential for a few supercells. Ambient low-level vorticity along the boundary may support a brief tornado threat with initial convection. However, mean west/southwesterly winds should yield poor boundary-normal deep-layer shear, which suggests storm interactions along the boundary may promote upscale growth by late afternoon with an increase in damaging to severe wind potential. ...Midwest... A mid-level perturbation is noted in water-vapor imagery across northern MT. This feature is forecast to reach the Midwest region by peak heating this afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft over a somewhat dry air mass should promote modest (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE. Deep-layer wind shear is expected to be marginal, but lift ahead of the vorticity maximum should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development with the potential for strong to severe winds - especially if more consolidated/organized clusters can become established. ...Texas into southwest Oklahoma... Surface observations show the cold front slowly moving south across central TX, but this boundary should become increasingly diffuse through the day amid strong diurnal heating across much of TX. Thermally-induced surface pressure falls to the west of a dryline (noted from west-central TX to the Big Bend region) will maintain east/southeasterly low-level winds through the day. This will not only maintain an influx of rich Gulf moisture (dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s), but will support hodograph elongation given 40-50 knot westerly flow aloft. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient heating will erode MLCIN by early afternoon, but weak confluence along the dryline and neutral to rising heights aloft may limit convective coverage. Consequently, confidence on storm coverage and location is low with considerable spread noted in 00z CAM solutions. However, this appears to be a low-probability, but potentially high impact scenario with the potential for significant hail (2 inches in diameter or larger), severe wind, and perhaps a tornado where storms can develop. Elevated convection appears possible well into the overnight hours across northern TX into southwest OK as isentropic ascent atop the stalled frontal boundary increases with the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. This activity should primarily pose a severe hail/wind threat that may persist into the early morning hours Tuesday. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma this afternoon and overnight. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential today and tonight will be focused along a composite cold frontal/outflow boundary draped from the Great Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast and westward into the southern Plains. 05 UTC surface observations reveal a mature surface low over the upper Great Lakes. A diffuse cold front is noted extending from the mid-MS/lower OH River Valleys (where a severe MCS is ongoing) into the southern Plains, with an additional cold frontal surge analyzed across parts of the Midwest. These features should migrate to the east/southeast over the next 12-24 hours as the synoptic surface low moves into the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight, driven primarily by large scale ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave (observed over the mid-MS/lower OH River Valleys at around 05 UTC). Although only modest deepening of the surface low is anticipated over the forecast period, mid to upper-level flow will likely remain fairly strong (40-60 knots between 700 to 500 mb) ahead of the upper wave. This will support moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of an expansive warm sector stretching from the Southern Plains into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and northward to the lower Great Lakes. Thunderstorms developing along the aforementioned cold front and/or outflow boundary will likely see some degree of organization with an attendant severe risk. ...Pennsylvania and western New York... Northward moisture return is ongoing across PA and NY in the wake of a decaying QLCS. Although lapse rates across the lower Great Lakes into PA will remain fairly marginal, increasing low-level moisture and diurnal heating should erode weak MLCIN by around 18 UTC. Concurrently, a weak mid-level perturbation, most likely associated with the remains of the ongoing MCS across the OH River Valley, will overspread the region around early afternoon resulting in scattered thunderstorm development. While buoyancy will be meager (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), 40-45 knot flow above the surface should mix down within stronger downdrafts, supporting a damaging/severe wind threat. A second round of thunderstorms is possible during the late afternoon/evening hours across western PA as a secondary cold frontal surge pushes east. The intensity of this activity will likely be dependent on the degree of overturning and air mass recovery in the wake of the early afternoon thunderstorms. However, a severe wind threat may materialize if sufficient recovery can occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass is currently in place across the Mid-Atlantic with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints observed from the Carolinas into MD. 6-7 K/km lapse rates are also noted in 00 UTC soundings, which should support 2000-2500 MLCAPE by mid-afternoon across the region. The approach of the upper wave should promote troughing in the lee of the Appalachians. It remains unclear whether convection will primarily be focused along the lee trough or along a residual outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS to the west. Regardless, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes if sufficient low-level SRH along and ahead of the boundary can be realized, as hinted by some model solutions. ...Southeast... The ongoing MCS is forecast to gradually decay as it moves into central/southern MS/AL/GA by 12 UTC, though embedded segments within the line may pose a severe threat at the start of the forecast period. Regardless, an outflow boundary should become apparent somewhere across the Southeastern states by mid-morning, though guidance varies on the exact placement. Weak capping is noted in 00 UTC soundings from across the region, suggesting that diurnal heating, aided by weak ascent along the boundary, should foster thunderstorm development by early afternoon. MLCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg combined with around 30 knots of deep-layer shear should allow for some initial storm organization, including the potential for a few supercells. Ambient low-level vorticity along the boundary may support a brief tornado threat with initial convection. However, mean west/southwesterly winds should yield poor boundary-normal deep-layer shear, which suggests storm interactions along the boundary may promote upscale growth by late afternoon with an increase in damaging to severe wind potential. ...Midwest... A mid-level perturbation is noted in water-vapor imagery across northern MT. This feature is forecast to reach the Midwest region by peak heating this afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft over a somewhat dry air mass should promote modest (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE. Deep-layer wind shear is expected to be marginal, but lift ahead of the vorticity maximum should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development with the potential for strong to severe winds - especially if more consolidated/organized clusters can become established. ...Texas into southwest Oklahoma... Surface observations show the cold front slowly moving south across central TX, but this boundary should become increasingly diffuse through the day amid strong diurnal heating across much of TX. Thermally-induced surface pressure falls to the west of a dryline (noted from west-central TX to the Big Bend region) will maintain east/southeasterly low-level winds through the day. This will not only maintain an influx of rich Gulf moisture (dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s), but will support hodograph elongation given 40-50 knot westerly flow aloft. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient heating will erode MLCIN by early afternoon, but weak confluence along the dryline and neutral to rising heights aloft may limit convective coverage. Consequently, confidence on storm coverage and location is low with considerable spread noted in 00z CAM solutions. However, this appears to be a low-probability, but potentially high impact scenario with the potential for significant hail (2 inches in diameter or larger), severe wind, and perhaps a tornado where storms can develop. Elevated convection appears possible well into the overnight hours across northern TX into southwest OK as isentropic ascent atop the stalled frontal boundary increases with the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. This activity should primarily pose a severe hail/wind threat that may persist into the early morning hours Tuesday. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma this afternoon and overnight. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential today and tonight will be focused along a composite cold frontal/outflow boundary draped from the Great Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast and westward into the southern Plains. 05 UTC surface observations reveal a mature surface low over the upper Great Lakes. A diffuse cold front is noted extending from the mid-MS/lower OH River Valleys (where a severe MCS is ongoing) into the southern Plains, with an additional cold frontal surge analyzed across parts of the Midwest. These features should migrate to the east/southeast over the next 12-24 hours as the synoptic surface low moves into the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight, driven primarily by large scale ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave (observed over the mid-MS/lower OH River Valleys at around 05 UTC). Although only modest deepening of the surface low is anticipated over the forecast period, mid to upper-level flow will likely remain fairly strong (40-60 knots between 700 to 500 mb) ahead of the upper wave. This will support moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of an expansive warm sector stretching from the Southern Plains into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and northward to the lower Great Lakes. Thunderstorms developing along the aforementioned cold front and/or outflow boundary will likely see some degree of organization with an attendant severe risk. ...Pennsylvania and western New York... Northward moisture return is ongoing across PA and NY in the wake of a decaying QLCS. Although lapse rates across the lower Great Lakes into PA will remain fairly marginal, increasing low-level moisture and diurnal heating should erode weak MLCIN by around 18 UTC. Concurrently, a weak mid-level perturbation, most likely associated with the remains of the ongoing MCS across the OH River Valley, will overspread the region around early afternoon resulting in scattered thunderstorm development. While buoyancy will be meager (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), 40-45 knot flow above the surface should mix down within stronger downdrafts, supporting a damaging/severe wind threat. A second round of thunderstorms is possible during the late afternoon/evening hours across western PA as a secondary cold frontal surge pushes east. The intensity of this activity will likely be dependent on the degree of overturning and air mass recovery in the wake of the early afternoon thunderstorms. However, a severe wind threat may materialize if sufficient recovery can occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass is currently in place across the Mid-Atlantic with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints observed from the Carolinas into MD. 6-7 K/km lapse rates are also noted in 00 UTC soundings, which should support 2000-2500 MLCAPE by mid-afternoon across the region. The approach of the upper wave should promote troughing in the lee of the Appalachians. It remains unclear whether convection will primarily be focused along the lee trough or along a residual outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS to the west. Regardless, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes if sufficient low-level SRH along and ahead of the boundary can be realized, as hinted by some model solutions. ...Southeast... The ongoing MCS is forecast to gradually decay as it moves into central/southern MS/AL/GA by 12 UTC, though embedded segments within the line may pose a severe threat at the start of the forecast period. Regardless, an outflow boundary should become apparent somewhere across the Southeastern states by mid-morning, though guidance varies on the exact placement. Weak capping is noted in 00 UTC soundings from across the region, suggesting that diurnal heating, aided by weak ascent along the boundary, should foster thunderstorm development by early afternoon. MLCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg combined with around 30 knots of deep-layer shear should allow for some initial storm organization, including the potential for a few supercells. Ambient low-level vorticity along the boundary may support a brief tornado threat with initial convection. However, mean west/southwesterly winds should yield poor boundary-normal deep-layer shear, which suggests storm interactions along the boundary may promote upscale growth by late afternoon with an increase in damaging to severe wind potential. ...Midwest... A mid-level perturbation is noted in water-vapor imagery across northern MT. This feature is forecast to reach the Midwest region by peak heating this afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft over a somewhat dry air mass should promote modest (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE. Deep-layer wind shear is expected to be marginal, but lift ahead of the vorticity maximum should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development with the potential for strong to severe winds - especially if more consolidated/organized clusters can become established. ...Texas into southwest Oklahoma... Surface observations show the cold front slowly moving south across central TX, but this boundary should become increasingly diffuse through the day amid strong diurnal heating across much of TX. Thermally-induced surface pressure falls to the west of a dryline (noted from west-central TX to the Big Bend region) will maintain east/southeasterly low-level winds through the day. This will not only maintain an influx of rich Gulf moisture (dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s), but will support hodograph elongation given 40-50 knot westerly flow aloft. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient heating will erode MLCIN by early afternoon, but weak confluence along the dryline and neutral to rising heights aloft may limit convective coverage. Consequently, confidence on storm coverage and location is low with considerable spread noted in 00z CAM solutions. However, this appears to be a low-probability, but potentially high impact scenario with the potential for significant hail (2 inches in diameter or larger), severe wind, and perhaps a tornado where storms can develop. Elevated convection appears possible well into the overnight hours across northern TX into southwest OK as isentropic ascent atop the stalled frontal boundary increases with the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. This activity should primarily pose a severe hail/wind threat that may persist into the early morning hours Tuesday. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma this afternoon and overnight. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential today and tonight will be focused along a composite cold frontal/outflow boundary draped from the Great Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast and westward into the southern Plains. 05 UTC surface observations reveal a mature surface low over the upper Great Lakes. A diffuse cold front is noted extending from the mid-MS/lower OH River Valleys (where a severe MCS is ongoing) into the southern Plains, with an additional cold frontal surge analyzed across parts of the Midwest. These features should migrate to the east/southeast over the next 12-24 hours as the synoptic surface low moves into the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight, driven primarily by large scale ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave (observed over the mid-MS/lower OH River Valleys at around 05 UTC). Although only modest deepening of the surface low is anticipated over the forecast period, mid to upper-level flow will likely remain fairly strong (40-60 knots between 700 to 500 mb) ahead of the upper wave. This will support moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of an expansive warm sector stretching from the Southern Plains into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and northward to the lower Great Lakes. Thunderstorms developing along the aforementioned cold front and/or outflow boundary will likely see some degree of organization with an attendant severe risk. ...Pennsylvania and western New York... Northward moisture return is ongoing across PA and NY in the wake of a decaying QLCS. Although lapse rates across the lower Great Lakes into PA will remain fairly marginal, increasing low-level moisture and diurnal heating should erode weak MLCIN by around 18 UTC. Concurrently, a weak mid-level perturbation, most likely associated with the remains of the ongoing MCS across the OH River Valley, will overspread the region around early afternoon resulting in scattered thunderstorm development. While buoyancy will be meager (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), 40-45 knot flow above the surface should mix down within stronger downdrafts, supporting a damaging/severe wind threat. A second round of thunderstorms is possible during the late afternoon/evening hours across western PA as a secondary cold frontal surge pushes east. The intensity of this activity will likely be dependent on the degree of overturning and air mass recovery in the wake of the early afternoon thunderstorms. However, a severe wind threat may materialize if sufficient recovery can occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass is currently in place across the Mid-Atlantic with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints observed from the Carolinas into MD. 6-7 K/km lapse rates are also noted in 00 UTC soundings, which should support 2000-2500 MLCAPE by mid-afternoon across the region. The approach of the upper wave should promote troughing in the lee of the Appalachians. It remains unclear whether convection will primarily be focused along the lee trough or along a residual outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS to the west. Regardless, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes if sufficient low-level SRH along and ahead of the boundary can be realized, as hinted by some model solutions. ...Southeast... The ongoing MCS is forecast to gradually decay as it moves into central/southern MS/AL/GA by 12 UTC, though embedded segments within the line may pose a severe threat at the start of the forecast period. Regardless, an outflow boundary should become apparent somewhere across the Southeastern states by mid-morning, though guidance varies on the exact placement. Weak capping is noted in 00 UTC soundings from across the region, suggesting that diurnal heating, aided by weak ascent along the boundary, should foster thunderstorm development by early afternoon. MLCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg combined with around 30 knots of deep-layer shear should allow for some initial storm organization, including the potential for a few supercells. Ambient low-level vorticity along the boundary may support a brief tornado threat with initial convection. However, mean west/southwesterly winds should yield poor boundary-normal deep-layer shear, which suggests storm interactions along the boundary may promote upscale growth by late afternoon with an increase in damaging to severe wind potential. ...Midwest... A mid-level perturbation is noted in water-vapor imagery across northern MT. This feature is forecast to reach the Midwest region by peak heating this afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft over a somewhat dry air mass should promote modest (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE. Deep-layer wind shear is expected to be marginal, but lift ahead of the vorticity maximum should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development with the potential for strong to severe winds - especially if more consolidated/organized clusters can become established. ...Texas into southwest Oklahoma... Surface observations show the cold front slowly moving south across central TX, but this boundary should become increasingly diffuse through the day amid strong diurnal heating across much of TX. Thermally-induced surface pressure falls to the west of a dryline (noted from west-central TX to the Big Bend region) will maintain east/southeasterly low-level winds through the day. This will not only maintain an influx of rich Gulf moisture (dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s), but will support hodograph elongation given 40-50 knot westerly flow aloft. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient heating will erode MLCIN by early afternoon, but weak confluence along the dryline and neutral to rising heights aloft may limit convective coverage. Consequently, confidence on storm coverage and location is low with considerable spread noted in 00z CAM solutions. However, this appears to be a low-probability, but potentially high impact scenario with the potential for significant hail (2 inches in diameter or larger), severe wind, and perhaps a tornado where storms can develop. Elevated convection appears possible well into the overnight hours across northern TX into southwest OK as isentropic ascent atop the stalled frontal boundary increases with the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. This activity should primarily pose a severe hail/wind threat that may persist into the early morning hours Tuesday. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across much of central and eastern Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma this afternoon and overnight. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential today and tonight will be focused along a composite cold frontal/outflow boundary draped from the Great Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast and westward into the southern Plains. 05 UTC surface observations reveal a mature surface low over the upper Great Lakes. A diffuse cold front is noted extending from the mid-MS/lower OH River Valleys (where a severe MCS is ongoing) into the southern Plains, with an additional cold frontal surge analyzed across parts of the Midwest. These features should migrate to the east/southeast over the next 12-24 hours as the synoptic surface low moves into the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight, driven primarily by large scale ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave (observed over the mid-MS/lower OH River Valleys at around 05 UTC). Although only modest deepening of the surface low is anticipated over the forecast period, mid to upper-level flow will likely remain fairly strong (40-60 knots between 700 to 500 mb) ahead of the upper wave. This will support moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of an expansive warm sector stretching from the Southern Plains into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and northward to the lower Great Lakes. Thunderstorms developing along the aforementioned cold front and/or outflow boundary will likely see some degree of organization with an attendant severe risk. ...Pennsylvania and western New York... Northward moisture return is ongoing across PA and NY in the wake of a decaying QLCS. Although lapse rates across the lower Great Lakes into PA will remain fairly marginal, increasing low-level moisture and diurnal heating should erode weak MLCIN by around 18 UTC. Concurrently, a weak mid-level perturbation, most likely associated with the remains of the ongoing MCS across the OH River Valley, will overspread the region around early afternoon resulting in scattered thunderstorm development. While buoyancy will be meager (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), 40-45 knot flow above the surface should mix down within stronger downdrafts, supporting a damaging/severe wind threat. A second round of thunderstorms is possible during the late afternoon/evening hours across western PA as a secondary cold frontal surge pushes east. The intensity of this activity will likely be dependent on the degree of overturning and air mass recovery in the wake of the early afternoon thunderstorms. However, a severe wind threat may materialize if sufficient recovery can occur. ...Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass is currently in place across the Mid-Atlantic with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints observed from the Carolinas into MD. 6-7 K/km lapse rates are also noted in 00 UTC soundings, which should support 2000-2500 MLCAPE by mid-afternoon across the region. The approach of the upper wave should promote troughing in the lee of the Appalachians. It remains unclear whether convection will primarily be focused along the lee trough or along a residual outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS to the west. Regardless, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes if sufficient low-level SRH along and ahead of the boundary can be realized, as hinted by some model solutions. ...Southeast... The ongoing MCS is forecast to gradually decay as it moves into central/southern MS/AL/GA by 12 UTC, though embedded segments within the line may pose a severe threat at the start of the forecast period. Regardless, an outflow boundary should become apparent somewhere across the Southeastern states by mid-morning, though guidance varies on the exact placement. Weak capping is noted in 00 UTC soundings from across the region, suggesting that diurnal heating, aided by weak ascent along the boundary, should foster thunderstorm development by early afternoon. MLCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg combined with around 30 knots of deep-layer shear should allow for some initial storm organization, including the potential for a few supercells. Ambient low-level vorticity along the boundary may support a brief tornado threat with initial convection. However, mean west/southwesterly winds should yield poor boundary-normal deep-layer shear, which suggests storm interactions along the boundary may promote upscale growth by late afternoon with an increase in damaging to severe wind potential. ...Midwest... A mid-level perturbation is noted in water-vapor imagery across northern MT. This feature is forecast to reach the Midwest region by peak heating this afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft over a somewhat dry air mass should promote modest (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE. Deep-layer wind shear is expected to be marginal, but lift ahead of the vorticity maximum should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development with the potential for strong to severe winds - especially if more consolidated/organized clusters can become established. ...Texas into southwest Oklahoma... Surface observations show the cold front slowly moving south across central TX, but this boundary should become increasingly diffuse through the day amid strong diurnal heating across much of TX. Thermally-induced surface pressure falls to the west of a dryline (noted from west-central TX to the Big Bend region) will maintain east/southeasterly low-level winds through the day. This will not only maintain an influx of rich Gulf moisture (dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s), but will support hodograph elongation given 40-50 knot westerly flow aloft. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient heating will erode MLCIN by early afternoon, but weak confluence along the dryline and neutral to rising heights aloft may limit convective coverage. Consequently, confidence on storm coverage and location is low with considerable spread noted in 00z CAM solutions. However, this appears to be a low-probability, but potentially high impact scenario with the potential for significant hail (2 inches in diameter or larger), severe wind, and perhaps a tornado where storms can develop. Elevated convection appears possible well into the overnight hours across northern TX into southwest OK as isentropic ascent atop the stalled frontal boundary increases with the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. This activity should primarily pose a severe hail/wind threat that may persist into the early morning hours Tuesday. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 Read more

MD 1006 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1006 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Northeast TX into Southwest/South-Central AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 270337Z - 270530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from northeast Texas into central Arkansas. Very large hail is the primary risk, although a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated coverage may preclude the need for a watch but trends will be monitored closely. DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture convergence is contributing to new development near the weak cold front extending across the region. The airmass to the south of the front is very moist and buoyant, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg. Strong vertical shear is in place as well, with effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt. However, significant mid-level dry air is in place, which will likely minimize the overall severe coverage. Even so, the storms that do develop could be quite strong and may even be able to attain supercellular characteristics. Very large hail is likely the primary risk, but strong low-level instability (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE over 200 J/kg) and low-level wind profiles that veer with height suggest some tornado potential as well. Isolated coverage may preclude the need for a watch but trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33419510 34519276 33849199 32569373 32149506 32549545 33419510 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

WW 0329 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 329 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 329 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-069-073- 079-091-099-103-139-270540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW GRANT HEMPSTEAD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC015-017-027-061-067-073-111-119-270540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE LINCOLN MOREHOUSE OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER MSC011-270540- Read more

WW 0327 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 327 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW LEX TO 35 NNW LEX TO 15 N LUK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007 ..MOSIER..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 327 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC005-011-013-017-021-023-025-037-043-045-049-051-063-065-067- 069-071-073-079-095-097-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-131- 133-135-137-147-151-153-159-161-165-167-173-175-181-189-191-193- 195-197-199-201-203-205-209-231-235-237-239-270540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BATH BELL BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT CAMPBELL CARTER CASEY CLARK CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FLOYD FRANKLIN GARRARD HARLAN HARRISON JACKSON JESSAMINE JOHNSON KENTON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LAWRENCE LEE LESLIE LETCHER LEWIS LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MAGOFFIN MARTIN MASON MENIFEE MERCER MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS OWSLEY Read more

WW 0328 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 328 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 328 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-067-077-085-093-095-111-117-123-145-147- 270540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE JACKSON LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS WHITE WOODRUFF MSC009-033-093-137-143-270540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON DESOTO MARSHALL TATE TUNICA MOC069-155-270540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0324 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CKV TO 30 E BWG TO 40 SW LEX. ..MOSIER..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...LMK...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-053-057-155-169-171-207-213-270540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN CLINTON CUMBERLAND MARION METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0324 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CKV TO 30 E BWG TO 40 SW LEX. ..MOSIER..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...LMK...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-053-057-155-169-171-207-213-270540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN CLINTON CUMBERLAND MARION METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0324 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CKV TO 30 E BWG TO 40 SW LEX. ..MOSIER..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...LMK...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-053-057-155-169-171-207-213-270540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN CLINTON CUMBERLAND MARION METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0324 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CKV TO 30 E BWG TO 40 SW LEX. ..MOSIER..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...LMK...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-053-057-155-169-171-207-213-270540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN CLINTON CUMBERLAND MARION METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0324 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CKV TO 30 E BWG TO 40 SW LEX. ..MOSIER..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...LMK...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-053-057-155-169-171-207-213-270540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN CLINTON CUMBERLAND MARION METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 324 TORNADO IL IN KY 262350Z - 270600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 324 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 650 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are forecast to move into the lower Ohio Valley early this evening and pose a risk for tornadoes, some potentially strong, and large to very large hail (up 2 to 3 inches in diameter). Severe gusts are forecast to become more prevalent later this evening as a severe squall line with embedded supercells or mesovortices moves across the Watch area. A tornado risk will probably accompany any stronger line-embedded circulations. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Evansville IN to 30 miles south southwest of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318...WW 319...WW 320...WW 321...WW 322...WW 323... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0326 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 326 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...MEG...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 326 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-021-023-025-027-031-035-037-039- 041-043-049-051-055-057-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-081- 083-085-087-089-093-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119- 121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153- 155-159-161-165-167-169-173-175-177-181-185-187-189-270540- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BEDFORD BLEDSOE BLOUNT BRADLEY CAMPBELL CANNON CHEATHAM CHESTER CLAIBORNE CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DECATUR DE KALB DICKSON FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES GRAINGER GRUNDY HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDEMAN HARDIN HAWKINS HAYWOOD HENDERSON HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS JACKSON JEFFERSON KNOX LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN LOUDON MCMINN MCNAIRY MACON MADISON MARION MARSHALL MAURY MEIGS MONROE MONTGOMERY MOORE Read more

MD 1005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Extreme northeast KS into northern MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270335Z - 270500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat may persist into the early overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to occasionally severe storms have persisted this evening across northern MO late this evening, with the strongest cell having produced 2-inch diameter hail in Mercer and Sullivan Counties. Additional storms have developed into northwest MO, and also southwest of the Kansas City metro. While this region is post-frontal, lingering low-level moisture beneath steep lapse rates aloft is supporting MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. Meanwhile, modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear is supporting some storm organization, including occasional supercell structures. Ongoing convection is likely being aided by a shortwave trough moving through broader cyclonic flow aloft, and additional development of a severe storm or two will be possible into the early overnight hours, with large hail as the primary hazard (though locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out). Eventual weakening is expected overnight due to weakening instability and departure of stronger large-scale ascent. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39179523 40509443 40429277 39859217 39069224 38739279 38309426 38399524 39179523 Read more

WW 0329 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0329 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more