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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail are possible across the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Stronger westerlies, with at least a couple of modestly amplified embedded waves, are forecast to persist across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America through this period. Near the leading edge of this regime, this is forecast to include larger-scale mid-level troughing which appears likely to remain progressive across the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, even as downstream flow trends a bit more amplified and less progressive. To the east of this trough, models suggest that an anticyclonic circulation may at least attempt to evolve within larger-scale ridging across southern Manitoba into adjacent portions of northwestern Ontario. The progression of the upstream trough may ultimately preclude the evolution of a closed circulation, but positively tilted amplified mid-level troughing downstream (inland of the Atlantic coast) is forecast to move little Wednesday through Wednesday night. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, ridging, initially centered over central Mexico before retrograding into the Pacific to the south of Baja, may remain suppressed as low-amplitude mid/upper troughing progresses inland across California and northern Baja into the Southwest. Beneath this regime, models indicate that a notable reinforcing cold front will advance into the Southeast, while stalling and weakening across the eastern Great Plains. It appears that a convectively augmented front may reach the Texas Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande Valley through Texas Big Bend vicinity by early Wednesday, before stalling and weakening. Boundary-layer moistening may occur within deepening surface troughing across the High Plains, but particularly to the north of the Front Range, it appears that this will remain rather modest for the time of year. ...Lee of northern Rockies and Front Range... Through peak daytime heating and into Wednesday evening, deep-layer shear downstream of the inland progressing trough is forecast to remain weak across the High Plains. However, even with limited boundary-layer moisture, steep lapse rates may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg. This may be sufficient to support widely scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Storms initiating off the higher terrain, and as convective temperatures are reached near the lee surface trough, may tend to consolidate into widely scattered clusters, augmented by strengthening southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 30 kt), before weakening later Wednesday evening. ...Southwest Texas... Models suggest that moisture and lapse rates across the Pecos Valley into the Davis Mountains vicinity will remain supportive of moderate to large CAPE with heating Wednesday. Beneath moderately strong and difluent westerly mid/upper flow, downstream of the low-amplitude wave advancing into the Southwest, orographic forcing may support the development of one or two supercell storms during the afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 05/27/2024 Read more

MD 1008 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 326...328...329... FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Arkansas...northern Louisiana...western and Middle Tennessee...northern Mississippi...and northern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 326...328...329... Valid 270552Z - 270745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 326, 328, 329 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms continue within a band from northern and western Tennessee west-southwestward to the Arklatex. Risk for locally damaging winds and hail, and a tornado or two, continues. Southeastward expansion of the convection into northern parts of Mississippi and Alabama will likely require new WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a continues line of storms extending west-southwest to east-northeast across northern Middle and western Tennessee, which is sagging slowly southward. Meanwhile, a broken -- but more intense -- band of storms extends from western Tennessee southwestward to the Arklatex region. This convection is ongoing within a much more unstable environment (mixed-layer CAPE 3000 to 5000 J/kg across this area), and is a bit less shear-parallel than the more west-to-east Tennessee band of storms. As this stronger convection shifts gradually eastward over the next 1 to 2 hours, it will begin to impinge on eastern portions of WW 328 and, later, 329. Other, isolated storms are also developing across northwestern Alabama, south of the Middle Tennessee line of storms. Overall, with ample instability extending into northern Mississippi and -- to a lesser degree -- northern Alabama, new WW issuance will likely be needed soon over portions of northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. Southeastward extent of the risk should remain limited (into Georgia, and central portions of Alabama), given much weaker instability, and higher convective inhibition. ..Goss.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35638594 35418555 34698567 33858600 33218976 32479262 32779341 33719267 35488938 35708807 35828712 35638594 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more