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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON....CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin into eastern New Mexico, as well as portions of the northern Rockies, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into western North America is forecast to remain modestly amplified and slowly progressive into and through this period. This appears likely to include larger-scale troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast through the northern Rockies, and downstream ridging shifting eastward across the eastern Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Downstream troughing, across and east of the upper Mississippi Valley, may be a bit slower, with one notable embedded short wave impulse forecast to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, but another notable impulse may accelerate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be accompanied by a weakening surface cyclone and trailing reinforcing surges of cooler/drier air into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Cooler and drier air may also advance southward through the southern Great Plains, beneath ridging within weaker westerlies across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture may be in the process of shifting offshore of the southern Atlantic coast at the beginning of the period, and becoming confined to parts of the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin and adjacent Rio Grande Valley. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning this and other synoptic/sub-synoptic details. ...Southwest Texas into Eastern New Mexico... It currently appears that the dryline within weak lingering surface troughing across parts of eastern New Mexico through the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau vicinity will become the focus for strong thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. It is possible that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with a weak perturbation progressing through the larger-scale ridging aloft. In the presence of steep lapse rates, it appears that the low-level moisture to the east of the dryline may be sufficient for moderate to large CAPE with daytime heating, with deep-layer shear, aided by veering winds with height in lower through mid-levels, conducive to the evolution of a few supercells. It is possible that severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... Models suggest that weak destabilization ahead of the inland advancing mid-level trough will support increasing thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that activity may consolidate across the mountains of central Idaho into western Montana, where evaporative cooling within a well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer may contribute to downward mixing of 40-50 kt southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and a strengthening cold pool. It is possible that strong to severe surface gusts may spread east of the continental divide Tuesday evening, even as more weakly unstable inflow begins to weaken convection. ..Kerr.. 05/26/2024 Read more

MD 0967 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0967 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...West central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 260522Z - 260715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the dryline northwest of the San Angelo region appears possible within the next few hours based on satellite observations and trends in numerical guidance. Given a conditionally favorable severe environment, watch issuance may be warranted later tonight. DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, a small cluster of cumulus has become evident in GOES IR and nighttime microphysics imagery to the northwest of the San Angelo, TX area along the surface dryline. Low-level confluence along the boundary appears fairly weak based on regional surface observations, and MLCIN continues to increase amid nocturnal cooling. However, the steady deepening recently observed suggests that some nebulous forcing for ascent may be sufficient for a couple attempts at convective initiation. Confidence in thunderstorm development is low given the aforementioned concerns, but recent HRRR solutions hint that a few storms may emerge during the 07-10 UTC time frame across west-central TX. Given a conditionally favorable convective environment (MLCAPE between 2000-2500 J/kg, 0-6 km BWD values near 50 knots among other metrics), thunderstorms that can mature may pose a severe risk. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for a watch later tonight. ..Moore/Edwards.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31300198 31490217 31790191 32400068 32939988 33199957 33289918 33229863 32789843 32459843 32049862 31709907 31479968 31400000 31240056 31130106 31100141 31170176 31300198 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be relatively minimal for Monday. Although the very dry air mass currently in place across NM and western TX will linger into early next week, winds will be calmer amid building surface high pressure. Some areas of Far West Texas and far southeastern New Mexico may see localized elevated fire weather conditions, as some high-resolution guidance hints at 10-15 mph sustained winds around peak heating. However, the overall poor agreement among ensemble guidance for sustaining elevated wind speeds (15+ mph), coupled with the spatially limited nature of the threat, precludes introducing any risk areas. ..Moore.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be relatively minimal for Monday. Although the very dry air mass currently in place across NM and western TX will linger into early next week, winds will be calmer amid building surface high pressure. Some areas of Far West Texas and far southeastern New Mexico may see localized elevated fire weather conditions, as some high-resolution guidance hints at 10-15 mph sustained winds around peak heating. However, the overall poor agreement among ensemble guidance for sustaining elevated wind speeds (15+ mph), coupled with the spatially limited nature of the threat, precludes introducing any risk areas. ..Moore.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be relatively minimal for Monday. Although the very dry air mass currently in place across NM and western TX will linger into early next week, winds will be calmer amid building surface high pressure. Some areas of Far West Texas and far southeastern New Mexico may see localized elevated fire weather conditions, as some high-resolution guidance hints at 10-15 mph sustained winds around peak heating. However, the overall poor agreement among ensemble guidance for sustaining elevated wind speeds (15+ mph), coupled with the spatially limited nature of the threat, precludes introducing any risk areas. ..Moore.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be relatively minimal for Monday. Although the very dry air mass currently in place across NM and western TX will linger into early next week, winds will be calmer amid building surface high pressure. Some areas of Far West Texas and far southeastern New Mexico may see localized elevated fire weather conditions, as some high-resolution guidance hints at 10-15 mph sustained winds around peak heating. However, the overall poor agreement among ensemble guidance for sustaining elevated wind speeds (15+ mph), coupled with the spatially limited nature of the threat, precludes introducing any risk areas. ..Moore.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be relatively minimal for Monday. Although the very dry air mass currently in place across NM and western TX will linger into early next week, winds will be calmer amid building surface high pressure. Some areas of Far West Texas and far southeastern New Mexico may see localized elevated fire weather conditions, as some high-resolution guidance hints at 10-15 mph sustained winds around peak heating. However, the overall poor agreement among ensemble guidance for sustaining elevated wind speeds (15+ mph), coupled with the spatially limited nature of the threat, precludes introducing any risk areas. ..Moore.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be relatively minimal for Monday. Although the very dry air mass currently in place across NM and western TX will linger into early next week, winds will be calmer amid building surface high pressure. Some areas of Far West Texas and far southeastern New Mexico may see localized elevated fire weather conditions, as some high-resolution guidance hints at 10-15 mph sustained winds around peak heating. However, the overall poor agreement among ensemble guidance for sustaining elevated wind speeds (15+ mph), coupled with the spatially limited nature of the threat, precludes introducing any risk areas. ..Moore.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be relatively minimal for Monday. Although the very dry air mass currently in place across NM and western TX will linger into early next week, winds will be calmer amid building surface high pressure. Some areas of Far West Texas and far southeastern New Mexico may see localized elevated fire weather conditions, as some high-resolution guidance hints at 10-15 mph sustained winds around peak heating. However, the overall poor agreement among ensemble guidance for sustaining elevated wind speeds (15+ mph), coupled with the spatially limited nature of the threat, precludes introducing any risk areas. ..Moore.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be relatively minimal for Monday. Although the very dry air mass currently in place across NM and western TX will linger into early next week, winds will be calmer amid building surface high pressure. Some areas of Far West Texas and far southeastern New Mexico may see localized elevated fire weather conditions, as some high-resolution guidance hints at 10-15 mph sustained winds around peak heating. However, the overall poor agreement among ensemble guidance for sustaining elevated wind speeds (15+ mph), coupled with the spatially limited nature of the threat, precludes introducing any risk areas. ..Moore.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more