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MD 0776 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0776 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...Coastal Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 140434Z - 140630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Low risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, with convection early this morning. DISCUSSION...MCS that developed over the lower Sabine River Valley has matured into a larger complex as it propagates along the central Gulf Coast. Northern edge of this MCS is gradually weakening as it encounters less buoyant air mass, and the most robust updrafts are now focusing near/just off the AL Coast into the northern Gulf Basin. Old outflow boundary is currently draped from near CTY-AAF-south of PNS. Surface dew points/buoyancy are notably less north of the wind shift. It's not clear this boundary will advance north over the next few hours so the primary risk for strong/severe convection will likely focus along/south of this boundary where dew points are in the 70s. Low risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, will be noted along the leading edge of this progressive MCS. ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 30348675 30418459 30038415 29548459 29708659 30348675 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress southeastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula. Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley... A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts. Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is possible within the strongest cores. ...FL Peninsula... Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization. Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to support a low-probability tornado threat. ...Carolinas... Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today over parts of central and northern Florida into extreme southern Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two the main threats. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of western Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress across the Southeast as a second, low amplitude trough traverses the central Rockies today. Multiple embedded impulses should pivot around the Southeast mid-level trough and eject into the Atlantic, providing multiple rounds of deep-layer ascent to support a few rounds of thunderstorms over northern into central FL. Accompanying the southeast mid-level trough is a weak surface low over the OH/TN Valleys, which will aid in the northward transport of low-level moisture and associated buoyancy. Given modest vertical wind shear in place, adequate buoyancy will support the organization of at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over the OH/TN Valleys, with a more concentrated severe risk possible in northern FL along a residual baroclinic boundary. Elsewhere across the central Rockies/High Plains, enough deep-layer ascent will support scattered thunderstorms atop a well-mixed, heated boundary layer to support an isolated severe threat. ...Central and northern FL into extreme southern GA... A baroclinic boundary will become reinforced somewhere over northern FL with the passage of an MCS at the start of the period. Along this boundary, the MCS should intensify as a 500 mb jet streak overspreads the moist, destabilizing boundary layer. 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 70+ F surface dewpoints will boost MLCAPE to the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. After the first round of storms diminish by the afternoon, a second round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop over northern FL as a second mid-level impulse embedded in the upper trough overspreads the region. Severe coverage with this second round of storms will be more conditional on how much airmass recovery can occur between both rounds of storms. ...OH and TN Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of the meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse cellular and multicellular storms. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse- and multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...Portions of western Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western TX by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. Somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ..Squitieri.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today over parts of central and northern Florida into extreme southern Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two the main threats. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of western Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress across the Southeast as a second, low amplitude trough traverses the central Rockies today. Multiple embedded impulses should pivot around the Southeast mid-level trough and eject into the Atlantic, providing multiple rounds of deep-layer ascent to support a few rounds of thunderstorms over northern into central FL. Accompanying the southeast mid-level trough is a weak surface low over the OH/TN Valleys, which will aid in the northward transport of low-level moisture and associated buoyancy. Given modest vertical wind shear in place, adequate buoyancy will support the organization of at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over the OH/TN Valleys, with a more concentrated severe risk possible in northern FL along a residual baroclinic boundary. Elsewhere across the central Rockies/High Plains, enough deep-layer ascent will support scattered thunderstorms atop a well-mixed, heated boundary layer to support an isolated severe threat. ...Central and northern FL into extreme southern GA... A baroclinic boundary will become reinforced somewhere over northern FL with the passage of an MCS at the start of the period. Along this boundary, the MCS should intensify as a 500 mb jet streak overspreads the moist, destabilizing boundary layer. 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 70+ F surface dewpoints will boost MLCAPE to the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. After the first round of storms diminish by the afternoon, a second round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop over northern FL as a second mid-level impulse embedded in the upper trough overspreads the region. Severe coverage with this second round of storms will be more conditional on how much airmass recovery can occur between both rounds of storms. ...OH and TN Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of the meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse cellular and multicellular storms. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse- and multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...Portions of western Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western TX by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. Somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ..Squitieri.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today over parts of central and northern Florida into extreme southern Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two the main threats. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of western Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress across the Southeast as a second, low amplitude trough traverses the central Rockies today. Multiple embedded impulses should pivot around the Southeast mid-level trough and eject into the Atlantic, providing multiple rounds of deep-layer ascent to support a few rounds of thunderstorms over northern into central FL. Accompanying the southeast mid-level trough is a weak surface low over the OH/TN Valleys, which will aid in the northward transport of low-level moisture and associated buoyancy. Given modest vertical wind shear in place, adequate buoyancy will support the organization of at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over the OH/TN Valleys, with a more concentrated severe risk possible in northern FL along a residual baroclinic boundary. Elsewhere across the central Rockies/High Plains, enough deep-layer ascent will support scattered thunderstorms atop a well-mixed, heated boundary layer to support an isolated severe threat. ...Central and northern FL into extreme southern GA... A baroclinic boundary will become reinforced somewhere over northern FL with the passage of an MCS at the start of the period. Along this boundary, the MCS should intensify as a 500 mb jet streak overspreads the moist, destabilizing boundary layer. 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 70+ F surface dewpoints will boost MLCAPE to the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. After the first round of storms diminish by the afternoon, a second round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop over northern FL as a second mid-level impulse embedded in the upper trough overspreads the region. Severe coverage with this second round of storms will be more conditional on how much airmass recovery can occur between both rounds of storms. ...OH and TN Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of the meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse cellular and multicellular storms. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse- and multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...Portions of western Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western TX by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. Somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ..Squitieri.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today over parts of central and northern Florida into extreme southern Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two the main threats. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of western Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress across the Southeast as a second, low amplitude trough traverses the central Rockies today. Multiple embedded impulses should pivot around the Southeast mid-level trough and eject into the Atlantic, providing multiple rounds of deep-layer ascent to support a few rounds of thunderstorms over northern into central FL. Accompanying the southeast mid-level trough is a weak surface low over the OH/TN Valleys, which will aid in the northward transport of low-level moisture and associated buoyancy. Given modest vertical wind shear in place, adequate buoyancy will support the organization of at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over the OH/TN Valleys, with a more concentrated severe risk possible in northern FL along a residual baroclinic boundary. Elsewhere across the central Rockies/High Plains, enough deep-layer ascent will support scattered thunderstorms atop a well-mixed, heated boundary layer to support an isolated severe threat. ...Central and northern FL into extreme southern GA... A baroclinic boundary will become reinforced somewhere over northern FL with the passage of an MCS at the start of the period. Along this boundary, the MCS should intensify as a 500 mb jet streak overspreads the moist, destabilizing boundary layer. 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 70+ F surface dewpoints will boost MLCAPE to the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. After the first round of storms diminish by the afternoon, a second round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop over northern FL as a second mid-level impulse embedded in the upper trough overspreads the region. Severe coverage with this second round of storms will be more conditional on how much airmass recovery can occur between both rounds of storms. ...OH and TN Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of the meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse cellular and multicellular storms. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse- and multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...Portions of western Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western TX by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. Somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ..Squitieri.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today over parts of central and northern Florida into extreme southern Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two the main threats. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of western Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly progress across the Southeast as a second, low amplitude trough traverses the central Rockies today. Multiple embedded impulses should pivot around the Southeast mid-level trough and eject into the Atlantic, providing multiple rounds of deep-layer ascent to support a few rounds of thunderstorms over northern into central FL. Accompanying the southeast mid-level trough is a weak surface low over the OH/TN Valleys, which will aid in the northward transport of low-level moisture and associated buoyancy. Given modest vertical wind shear in place, adequate buoyancy will support the organization of at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over the OH/TN Valleys, with a more concentrated severe risk possible in northern FL along a residual baroclinic boundary. Elsewhere across the central Rockies/High Plains, enough deep-layer ascent will support scattered thunderstorms atop a well-mixed, heated boundary layer to support an isolated severe threat. ...Central and northern FL into extreme southern GA... A baroclinic boundary will become reinforced somewhere over northern FL with the passage of an MCS at the start of the period. Along this boundary, the MCS should intensify as a 500 mb jet streak overspreads the moist, destabilizing boundary layer. 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading 70+ F surface dewpoints will boost MLCAPE to the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. After the first round of storms diminish by the afternoon, a second round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop over northern FL as a second mid-level impulse embedded in the upper trough overspreads the region. Severe coverage with this second round of storms will be more conditional on how much airmass recovery can occur between both rounds of storms. ...OH and TN Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of the meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse cellular and multicellular storms. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse- and multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...Portions of western Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western TX by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. Somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ..Squitieri.. 05/14/2024 Read more