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SPC May 14, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 2 months ago

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across north and central Texas on Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and through the southern Plains on Thursday. Strong mid-level flow will likely exist throughout the base of this trough, spreading eastward across TX and into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the wave. Favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) is expected to advect northward across TX throughout the day. Given this low-level moisture, strong buoyancy is expected to develop across areas that experience ample daytime heating. This currently looks most likely from the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country TX into Hill Country/central TX, with more uncertainty farther north (from the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK) due to influence of Wednesday night's thunderstorms. Late afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated, with the combination of airmass destabilization, increasing large-scale ascent, and low-level convergence supporting initiation. Strong buoyancy and shear will support an initial supercell mode and robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail. Quick upscale growth appears probable, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward across central and southeast TX. Elevated thunderstorms may precede this convective line from east/southeast TX into southern LA, and a few of these storms may acquire updrafts strong enough to produce hail. ...Mid MS Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the region early Thursday morning before continuing northeastward and weakening. Heating in the wake of this early morning activity is expected to result in limited convective inhibition and moderate buoyancy by the afternoon. Convergence along a weak cold front and associated frontal low may result in thunderstorm development. An outflow boundary from the morning storms may also exist, providing another area for low-level convergence and storm initiation. Moderate westerly flow aloft could support a few stronger storms capable of large hail, damaging gusts ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more