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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND THE TX PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening over parts of the north-central Florida Peninsula and in the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough from the OH Valley to the Deep South will move off the South Atlantic Coast by early Thursday. Attendant surface cyclone will further occlude and decay over the Central OH Valley, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs just offshore of the VA/NC coast. Farther west, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will gradually move east across parts of the Upper Midwest to Southwest states. ...FL Peninsula... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf into north FL ahead of a weak surface front pushing southeastward. Ample buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg will likely develop across central and south FL where more robust boundary-layer heating occurs south of the morning convective canopy amid a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates. Consensus of 12Z CAM guidance suggests downstream thunderstorm development will occur late morning through midday as MLCIN wanes, with the leading edge of large-scale convective outflow serving as the effective boundary focus through the day. Deep-layer shear will be strong with a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow south of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Although the flow regime should be largely unidirectional from the southwest, this will be sufficient for at least a few supercells. Large hail and a couple tornadoes will be the primary threats, along with isolated damaging winds. Overall threat should wane later in the afternoon as flow orientation becomes increasingly parallel to the composite outflow/front. ...Central/southern Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley... A generally north/south-oriented cold front to the south of a weak surface cyclone over eastern SD will serve as a focus for scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorm development over the central states. Airmass modification will be most pronounced across OK into south KS where low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will spread north from east TX. This should yield a confined plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg by peak heating. Weak buoyancy will be prevalent to the north of this plume and suggests the overall severe threat in the Mid-MO Valley should remain marginal. Farther south, low-level convergence near the front and dryline, along with post-frontal upslope in the Raton Mesa vicinity, and a strengthening low-level jet from west TX towards the southeast KS/northeast OK border should all aid in scattered to eventually widespread convective development by Wednesday evening. While the combination of boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will be modest by mid-May standards, it should be adequate for transient supercells and clusters capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. These threats should wane overnight. ...Carolinas... Moderate destabilization is anticipated ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough, mainly across the coastal Plain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominant multicell mode. The more robust storms should be strong enough to produce sporadic hail and localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND THE TX PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening over parts of the north-central Florida Peninsula and in the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough from the OH Valley to the Deep South will move off the South Atlantic Coast by early Thursday. Attendant surface cyclone will further occlude and decay over the Central OH Valley, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs just offshore of the VA/NC coast. Farther west, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will gradually move east across parts of the Upper Midwest to Southwest states. ...FL Peninsula... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf into north FL ahead of a weak surface front pushing southeastward. Ample buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg will likely develop across central and south FL where more robust boundary-layer heating occurs south of the morning convective canopy amid a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates. Consensus of 12Z CAM guidance suggests downstream thunderstorm development will occur late morning through midday as MLCIN wanes, with the leading edge of large-scale convective outflow serving as the effective boundary focus through the day. Deep-layer shear will be strong with a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow south of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Although the flow regime should be largely unidirectional from the southwest, this will be sufficient for at least a few supercells. Large hail and a couple tornadoes will be the primary threats, along with isolated damaging winds. Overall threat should wane later in the afternoon as flow orientation becomes increasingly parallel to the composite outflow/front. ...Central/southern Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley... A generally north/south-oriented cold front to the south of a weak surface cyclone over eastern SD will serve as a focus for scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorm development over the central states. Airmass modification will be most pronounced across OK into south KS where low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will spread north from east TX. This should yield a confined plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg by peak heating. Weak buoyancy will be prevalent to the north of this plume and suggests the overall severe threat in the Mid-MO Valley should remain marginal. Farther south, low-level convergence near the front and dryline, along with post-frontal upslope in the Raton Mesa vicinity, and a strengthening low-level jet from west TX towards the southeast KS/northeast OK border should all aid in scattered to eventually widespread convective development by Wednesday evening. While the combination of boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will be modest by mid-May standards, it should be adequate for transient supercells and clusters capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. These threats should wane overnight. ...Carolinas... Moderate destabilization is anticipated ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough, mainly across the coastal Plain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominant multicell mode. The more robust storms should be strong enough to produce sporadic hail and localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND THE TX PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening over parts of the north-central Florida Peninsula and in the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough from the OH Valley to the Deep South will move off the South Atlantic Coast by early Thursday. Attendant surface cyclone will further occlude and decay over the Central OH Valley, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs just offshore of the VA/NC coast. Farther west, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will gradually move east across parts of the Upper Midwest to Southwest states. ...FL Peninsula... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf into north FL ahead of a weak surface front pushing southeastward. Ample buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg will likely develop across central and south FL where more robust boundary-layer heating occurs south of the morning convective canopy amid a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates. Consensus of 12Z CAM guidance suggests downstream thunderstorm development will occur late morning through midday as MLCIN wanes, with the leading edge of large-scale convective outflow serving as the effective boundary focus through the day. Deep-layer shear will be strong with a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow south of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Although the flow regime should be largely unidirectional from the southwest, this will be sufficient for at least a few supercells. Large hail and a couple tornadoes will be the primary threats, along with isolated damaging winds. Overall threat should wane later in the afternoon as flow orientation becomes increasingly parallel to the composite outflow/front. ...Central/southern Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley... A generally north/south-oriented cold front to the south of a weak surface cyclone over eastern SD will serve as a focus for scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorm development over the central states. Airmass modification will be most pronounced across OK into south KS where low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will spread north from east TX. This should yield a confined plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg by peak heating. Weak buoyancy will be prevalent to the north of this plume and suggests the overall severe threat in the Mid-MO Valley should remain marginal. Farther south, low-level convergence near the front and dryline, along with post-frontal upslope in the Raton Mesa vicinity, and a strengthening low-level jet from west TX towards the southeast KS/northeast OK border should all aid in scattered to eventually widespread convective development by Wednesday evening. While the combination of boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will be modest by mid-May standards, it should be adequate for transient supercells and clusters capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. These threats should wane overnight. ...Carolinas... Moderate destabilization is anticipated ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough, mainly across the coastal Plain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominant multicell mode. The more robust storms should be strong enough to produce sporadic hail and localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND THE TX PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening over parts of the north-central Florida Peninsula and in the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough from the OH Valley to the Deep South will move off the South Atlantic Coast by early Thursday. Attendant surface cyclone will further occlude and decay over the Central OH Valley, while secondary cyclogenesis occurs just offshore of the VA/NC coast. Farther west, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will gradually move east across parts of the Upper Midwest to Southwest states. ...FL Peninsula... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf into north FL ahead of a weak surface front pushing southeastward. Ample buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg will likely develop across central and south FL where more robust boundary-layer heating occurs south of the morning convective canopy amid a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates. Consensus of 12Z CAM guidance suggests downstream thunderstorm development will occur late morning through midday as MLCIN wanes, with the leading edge of large-scale convective outflow serving as the effective boundary focus through the day. Deep-layer shear will be strong with a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow south of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Although the flow regime should be largely unidirectional from the southwest, this will be sufficient for at least a few supercells. Large hail and a couple tornadoes will be the primary threats, along with isolated damaging winds. Overall threat should wane later in the afternoon as flow orientation becomes increasingly parallel to the composite outflow/front. ...Central/southern Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley... A generally north/south-oriented cold front to the south of a weak surface cyclone over eastern SD will serve as a focus for scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorm development over the central states. Airmass modification will be most pronounced across OK into south KS where low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will spread north from east TX. This should yield a confined plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg by peak heating. Weak buoyancy will be prevalent to the north of this plume and suggests the overall severe threat in the Mid-MO Valley should remain marginal. Farther south, low-level convergence near the front and dryline, along with post-frontal upslope in the Raton Mesa vicinity, and a strengthening low-level jet from west TX towards the southeast KS/northeast OK border should all aid in scattered to eventually widespread convective development by Wednesday evening. While the combination of boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will be modest by mid-May standards, it should be adequate for transient supercells and clusters capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. These threats should wane overnight. ...Carolinas... Moderate destabilization is anticipated ahead of the slow-moving shortwave trough, mainly across the coastal Plain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as this wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominant multicell mode. The more robust storms should be strong enough to produce sporadic hail and localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more