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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

MD 0781 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0781 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the northern/central FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141430Z - 141630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms should approach the Tampa metro and vicinity around 15-16Z (11 AM - Noon EDT), while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds. New watch issuance is possible to address this potential. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of convection is ongoing this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Recent forward motion of this activity suggests it should approach the FL Gulf Coast by 15-16Z. The 12Z sounding from TBW shows relatively cool mid-level temperatures for FL (-10 C at 500 mb), along with steepened lapse rates associated with an EML above 700 mb. But, there is still a residual cap noted between 800-700 mb, which may tend to limit updraft intensity over land in the short term. Recent surface observations and visible satellite imagery also show strong thunderstorms have developed along trailing outflow from earlier convection across the north-central FL Peninsula. As robust daytime heating of a very moist low-level airmass continues along/south of this boundary, lingering MLCIN should gradually erode. Around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will conditionally support intense updrafts, with sufficiently strong mid-level westerly flow and related deep-layer shear also fostering organized convection. Thunderstorm evolution through the afternoon remains somewhat unclear, as recent IR satellite trends show warming cloud tops with the eastern Gulf convection. There is still some chance that strong to severe thunderstorms consolidate along the outflow boundary over the next couple of hours, and continue spreading eastward across the central FL Peninsula this afternoon. If this scenario materializes, then scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph would likely be the main threat as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. A brief tornado or two may also occur, although low-level flow has had a tendency to veer to southwesterly this morning per latest VWPs from KTBW, which has reduced 0-1 km SRH. Marginally severe hail also appears possible with the more robust updrafts. It remains unclear whether a new watch will be needed, but observational trends will be closely monitored. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28838244 29328173 29398092 27968019 27428130 27288265 27768309 28428309 28838244 Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE PIE TO 35 ENE OCF TO 15 SE SGJ. ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-053-083-119-141640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER HERNANDO MARION SUMTER AMZ454-141640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE PIE TO 35 ENE OCF TO 15 SE SGJ. ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-053-083-119-141640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER HERNANDO MARION SUMTER AMZ454-141640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE PIE TO 35 ENE OCF TO 15 SE SGJ. ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-053-083-119-141640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER HERNANDO MARION SUMTER AMZ454-141640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 241 TORNADO FL GA CW 141025Z - 141700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 241 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 625 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Central Florida Southeast Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 625 AM until 100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms expected to further develop and intensity across the region as they generally spread east-northeastward through the morning, with damaging wind potential and a tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Gainesville FL to 15 miles north northeast of St Augustine FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 240... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW CTY TO 20 W OCF TO 20 SSE GNV TO 30 SSW SGJ TO 20 NE SGJ. ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC017-035-053-083-109-119-141540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CITRUS FLAGLER HERNANDO MARION ST. JOHNS SUMTER AMZ454-GMZ850-141540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0780 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 241... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0780 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/north FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 241... Valid 141243Z - 141415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 241 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing storms across north Florida could pose a threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. A storm cluster could move into parts of central/north Florida later this morning, which would also pose some severe risk. DISCUSSION...Generally disorganized storms are ongoing this morning across north FL. Despite moderate buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear (as noted in the 12Z JAX sounding), these storms have struggled to mature, potentially due to generally modest large-scale ascent and rather warm temperatures aloft. Some diurnal heating is underway to the east and south of these storms, which will aid in further destabilization and may aid in the development of a couple stronger cells or clusters through mid morning, which would pose a threat for damaging wind and a tornado. Farther west, a storm cluster is moving rather quickly eastward across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. With a rather favorable downstream environment, there is some potential for this cluster to propagate along an outflow-reinforced surface front and potentially reach west-central FL later this morning, with a renewed threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two. However, with some residual capping noted on the 12Z TBW sounding, the longevity of this cluster remains somewhat uncertain. Depending on how this cluster evolves as it approaches the coast, there is some potential for new WW issuance later this morning. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28278350 28898289 29838232 30238210 30528189 30678161 30478118 29728091 28918074 27648102 27248137 27078220 27188271 27648302 28278350 Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CTY TO 25 ENE GNV TO 15 NNW SGJ TO 40 E JAX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780 ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-035-053-075-083-107-109-119-141440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS FLAGLER HERNANDO LEVY MARION PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER AMZ452-454-GMZ850-141440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two possible. Severe storms may also occur across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Carolina Piedmont, as well as the central Rockies/High Plains and parts of west Texas. ...Northern/central Florida and southern Georgia... A well-organized quasi-linear MCS will continue across far southeast Georgia toward southern South Carolina this morning, with at least a localized severe risk possible. Additional development may occur along the southwestward-trailing outflow that should modify during the day, while other storms ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico may also reach the central Florida Peninsula. With moderate destabilization (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings) along/south of the effective boundary, modest low-level hodograph curvature and some elongation suggests that embedded bowing structures and mesovortices could develop, accompanied by a damaging gust and tornado risk. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 780. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas... Deep-layer moisture will advect northward ahead of a meandering surface low, beneath a nearly uncapped troposphere. As such, diurnal heating needs only to boost surface temperatures into the lower 70s F to initiate convection. These temperatures, along with low to mid 60s F dewpoints, will support around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon. Flow aloft is generally not expected to be overly strong, with slightly curved and short hodographs likely resulting in mainly pulse multicellular storms, although some supercells are possible across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main threats, though a brief tornado or two could occur. ...Central Rockies into the Central High Plains... The approach of a low-amplitude mid-level trough, and diurnal heating of an uncapped boundary layer, will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A deep and dry boundary layer should become established by afternoon peak heating, resulting in high-based pulse/multicell storms capable of producing isolated severe gusts (given 7-9 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates). A couple instances of severe hail may also accompany storms over the central High Plains, where low-level moisture is slightly more favorable. ...West/northwest Texas... A narrow corridor of thunderstorm potential exists ahead of a diffuse dryline over western Texas by afternoon peak heating, where the dryline circulation may be strong enough to assist in the initiation of isolated thunderstorms amid minimal CINH. Low-level moisture will be meager, with mid 80s F surface temperatures and low 50s F dewpoints contributing to over 30 F spreads, so any storms that develop will be high based. If/where storms develop, somewhat elongated hodographs suggest that supercells would be the dominant mode of convection, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail risk. ...Northern New England... An adequately unstable environment on the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft could support a few strong to locally severe storms this afternoon, potentially spanning parts of northern New York and Vermont/New Hampshire into nearby Maine. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/14/2024 Read more