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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into parts of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Synopsis... Highly amplified upper flow will persist over the U.S. Day 2/Tuesday, with a ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic region, and troughing entrenched over the West. A short-wave trough embedded in the broader-scale cyclonic flow is expected to shift out of the eastern Montana area and across the Dakotas through the period. This progression will be reflected at the surface as a surface cold front advances steadily eastward across the northern Plains, and more slowly southeastward across the Mid-Missouri Valley/Central Plains. Tuesday night, the front should cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and move into the western Upper Great Lakes region. ...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front. Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization. Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark. ..Goss.. 06/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Update... The previous forecast remains valid. Very minor adjustments were made to the Critical area near the CO/UT border, with a slight extension northeastward into CO. Sustained wind speeds near 25-35 mph will be possible there, with RH dropping into the single digits later this afternoon. In addition, the Elevated area was extended across southern CO to include the Sun Luis Valley, and eastward into the far western OK and TX Panhandles. The Guadalupe Mountains were also included in the Elevated area. All of the aforementioned regions should experience elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions for at least a couple of hours today. Please see the discussion below for more details. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Update... The previous forecast remains valid. Very minor adjustments were made to the Critical area near the CO/UT border, with a slight extension northeastward into CO. Sustained wind speeds near 25-35 mph will be possible there, with RH dropping into the single digits later this afternoon. In addition, the Elevated area was extended across southern CO to include the Sun Luis Valley, and eastward into the far western OK and TX Panhandles. The Guadalupe Mountains were also included in the Elevated area. All of the aforementioned regions should experience elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions for at least a couple of hours today. Please see the discussion below for more details. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Update... The previous forecast remains valid. Very minor adjustments were made to the Critical area near the CO/UT border, with a slight extension northeastward into CO. Sustained wind speeds near 25-35 mph will be possible there, with RH dropping into the single digits later this afternoon. In addition, the Elevated area was extended across southern CO to include the Sun Luis Valley, and eastward into the far western OK and TX Panhandles. The Guadalupe Mountains were also included in the Elevated area. All of the aforementioned regions should experience elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions for at least a couple of hours today. Please see the discussion below for more details. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Update... The previous forecast remains valid. Very minor adjustments were made to the Critical area near the CO/UT border, with a slight extension northeastward into CO. Sustained wind speeds near 25-35 mph will be possible there, with RH dropping into the single digits later this afternoon. In addition, the Elevated area was extended across southern CO to include the Sun Luis Valley, and eastward into the far western OK and TX Panhandles. The Guadalupe Mountains were also included in the Elevated area. All of the aforementioned regions should experience elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions for at least a couple of hours today. Please see the discussion below for more details. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Update... The previous forecast remains valid. Very minor adjustments were made to the Critical area near the CO/UT border, with a slight extension northeastward into CO. Sustained wind speeds near 25-35 mph will be possible there, with RH dropping into the single digits later this afternoon. In addition, the Elevated area was extended across southern CO to include the Sun Luis Valley, and eastward into the far western OK and TX Panhandles. The Guadalupe Mountains were also included in the Elevated area. All of the aforementioned regions should experience elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions for at least a couple of hours today. Please see the discussion below for more details. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Update... The previous forecast remains valid. Very minor adjustments were made to the Critical area near the CO/UT border, with a slight extension northeastward into CO. Sustained wind speeds near 25-35 mph will be possible there, with RH dropping into the single digits later this afternoon. In addition, the Elevated area was extended across southern CO to include the Sun Luis Valley, and eastward into the far western OK and TX Panhandles. The Guadalupe Mountains were also included in the Elevated area. All of the aforementioned regions should experience elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions for at least a couple of hours today. Please see the discussion below for more details. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Update... The previous forecast remains valid. Very minor adjustments were made to the Critical area near the CO/UT border, with a slight extension northeastward into CO. Sustained wind speeds near 25-35 mph will be possible there, with RH dropping into the single digits later this afternoon. In addition, the Elevated area was extended across southern CO to include the Sun Luis Valley, and eastward into the far western OK and TX Panhandles. The Guadalupe Mountains were also included in the Elevated area. All of the aforementioned regions should experience elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions for at least a couple of hours today. Please see the discussion below for more details. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Update... The previous forecast remains valid. Very minor adjustments were made to the Critical area near the CO/UT border, with a slight extension northeastward into CO. Sustained wind speeds near 25-35 mph will be possible there, with RH dropping into the single digits later this afternoon. In addition, the Elevated area was extended across southern CO to include the Sun Luis Valley, and eastward into the far western OK and TX Panhandles. The Guadalupe Mountains were also included in the Elevated area. All of the aforementioned regions should experience elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions for at least a couple of hours today. Please see the discussion below for more details. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Update... The previous forecast remains valid. Very minor adjustments were made to the Critical area near the CO/UT border, with a slight extension northeastward into CO. Sustained wind speeds near 25-35 mph will be possible there, with RH dropping into the single digits later this afternoon. In addition, the Elevated area was extended across southern CO to include the Sun Luis Valley, and eastward into the far western OK and TX Panhandles. The Guadalupe Mountains were also included in the Elevated area. All of the aforementioned regions should experience elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions for at least a couple of hours today. Please see the discussion below for more details. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...Update... The previous forecast remains valid. Very minor adjustments were made to the Critical area near the CO/UT border, with a slight extension northeastward into CO. Sustained wind speeds near 25-35 mph will be possible there, with RH dropping into the single digits later this afternoon. In addition, the Elevated area was extended across southern CO to include the Sun Luis Valley, and eastward into the far western OK and TX Panhandles. The Guadalupe Mountains were also included in the Elevated area. All of the aforementioned regions should experience elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions for at least a couple of hours today. Please see the discussion below for more details. ..Barnes.. 06/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the western US trough today, bringing strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, Critical fire weather is expected where afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph and critically dry fuels. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected within the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, the western Transverse Ranges, and the southern Sierra Nevada in northern/central California where strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph (locally stronger in foothills and mountain passes) will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) Fuels within much of this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns and recent fire activity suggest that fuels are drying quickly and supportive of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more