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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131920
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss possible
development to the south of Mexico later this week.

South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough several
hundred miles to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle
to latter portion of this week. Thereafter, some gradual development
of this system is possible as the low begins to move slowly to the
west-northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 Hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 2 PM PDT Tuesday, or earlier if conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Papin

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S DRT TO 60 W COT TO 15 NNW COT TO 15 SSW SAT TO 25 E BAZ TO 20 SW CLL. ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-123-127-149-163-175-177-187-255-283-285-297-311-323- 469-479-493-132040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE DEWITT DIMMIT FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE KARNES LA SALLE LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MAVERICK VICTORIA WEBB WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more