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MD 0767 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0767 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...southern Texas into southwestern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 131739Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat to continue downstream of WW235. Downstream watch will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A mix of clustered cells and supercell structures have been ongoing across portions of south-central Texas producing instances of quarter to half dollar size hail. Ahead of this activity, dew points are in the upper 70s to near 80 with MLCAPE around 3000-4000 J/kg. This, in combination with strong deep layer shear around 45-50 kts will continue to support supercells capable of very large hail (2-3.5 in). Trends suggest thunderstorms will gradually grow upscale while moving along a stalled front through the late afternoon/evening. This will lead to an increase in damaging wind threat, with potential for wind speeds 70+ mph and a tornado or two. A downstream watch will likely be needed to cover this threat. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30499682 31059640 31649528 31639459 31569350 31449238 31239172 30439144 30169141 29819142 29489145 29059155 28739266 28749419 28719532 28799611 29029668 29599684 30499682 Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-011-019-023-053-115-132040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON JEFFERSON DAVIS VERNON TXC015-039-041-051-071-089-157-167-185-199-201-239-241-245-291- 321-339-351-361-373-407-457-471-473-477-481-132040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON CHAMBERS COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON Read more

WW 0236 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW AAF TO 25 SSE PFN TO 20 E PFN TO 25 S MAI TO 30 WSW MGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768 ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC013-029-037-039-045-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-132040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GMZ730-752-755-765-132040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more