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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind or hail remains possible across parts of the Southeast and Plains states into this evening, and in north Florida overnight. ...Synopsis... A weak surface low continues to linger across the Southeast, with scattered thunderstorms ongoing amid a moist, marginally unstable airmass. With the onset of nocturnal cooling, these storms should continue to weaken through the evening. In the meantime though, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40 kts of effective bulk shear may support an additional damaging gust or instance of marginally severe hail. An additional round of storms may also develop late tonight across northern FL, perhaps accompanied by a severe hail threat. However, convective overturning from earlier storms has stabilized the airmass, so confidence in this scenario is not overly high. Finally, clusters of thunderstorm are still in progress across multiple portions of the Plains states. Though deep, the boundary layer remains unstable ahead of these storm clusters. Until nocturnal cooling diminishes severe potential, an isolated severe gust or instance of hail is possible over the next few hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind or hail remains possible across parts of the Southeast and Plains states into this evening, and in north Florida overnight. ...Synopsis... A weak surface low continues to linger across the Southeast, with scattered thunderstorms ongoing amid a moist, marginally unstable airmass. With the onset of nocturnal cooling, these storms should continue to weaken through the evening. In the meantime though, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40 kts of effective bulk shear may support an additional damaging gust or instance of marginally severe hail. An additional round of storms may also develop late tonight across northern FL, perhaps accompanied by a severe hail threat. However, convective overturning from earlier storms has stabilized the airmass, so confidence in this scenario is not overly high. Finally, clusters of thunderstorm are still in progress across multiple portions of the Plains states. Though deep, the boundary layer remains unstable ahead of these storm clusters. Until nocturnal cooling diminishes severe potential, an isolated severe gust or instance of hail is possible over the next few hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/15/2024 Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW TUP TO 30 WNW MSL TO 35 NW MSL TO 30 ESE MKL TO 20 SSE MKL. ..SPC..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-142340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC057-081-115-117-141-142340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ITAWAMBA LEE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TISHOMINGO TNC003-015-021-031-037-043-051-055-061-081-083-085-099-101-103- 111-117-119-125-127-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177-181-187-189- 142340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 242 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 141850Z - 150100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama Northeast Mississippi Western and middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to form and spread east-northeastward from northern Mississippi and western Tennessee toward northwest Alabama and middle Tennessee through late afternoon/evening. The strongest clusters and/or storms with supercell structure will be capable of producing isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and isolated damaging winds near 60 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles southwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 35 miles northwest of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0786 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242... FOR TN VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0786 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...TN Valley Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242... Valid 142224Z - 150000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242 continues. SUMMARY...Gusty winds, along with some risk for marginally severe hail, will continue along the leading edge of the MCS as it propagates east this evening. DISCUSSION...MS Valley trough is advancing slowly east this evening as primary belt of stronger mid-level flow translates across the central Gulf States. Mid-level temperatures are seasonally cool north of this jet with 500mb values around -12C across the TN Valley. As a result, modest buoyancy has developed ahead of the trough with MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg into middle TN. While much of this air mass has been convectively overturned, the ongoing MCS is progressing through the main instability axis and will soon begin to encounter less buoyancy. Damaging winds will likely accompany the leading edge of the surging squall line for the next few hours, but with time this activity should gradually wane over eastern TN. ..Darrow.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 34388918 36488827 36478595 34388690 34388918 Read more

MD 0787 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0787 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142226Z - 150000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of isolated severe gusts and an instance of marginally severe hail may accompany any storms that can develop and mature. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are attempting to initiate across portions of western TX ahead of a diffuse dryline, amid a synoptic environment characterized by weak forcing. Surface temperatures are reaching the mid 90s F in spots, which is breaching convective temperatures amid a deep (sfc-600 mb), uncapped boundary layer. Forecast soundings suggest modestly curved and elongated hodographs may support a transient, high-based supercell for any updraft that can intensify and become established. Within the deep boundary layer, lapse rates exceed 9 C/km, suggesting that isolated instances of severe gusts and perhaps hail may occur with any supercell structure given the aforementioned shear profiles. Nonetheless, the severe threat should be isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 31539905 31209922 31050042 31020149 32630218 34430252 35120231 34910127 33840031 32409936 31539905 Read more

MD 0785 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0785 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142207Z - 142330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are possible through the afternoon, and an instance or two of marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular and multicellular storms have been percolating in intensity across portions of eastern CO into western KS. These storms are overspreading a deep boundary layer with large rainwater evaporation potential, with surface temperatures approaching 90 F amid low 40s dewpoints. Given the 40-50 F spreads and inverted-v vertical thermodynamic profiles extending to nearly 500 mb, the ongoing storms should be high-based. 21Z mesoanalysis shows 9.5-10 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates within the boundary layer, suggesting that rainfall evaporation will support enough downward momentum transport to potentially produce a couple of severe gusts. One of the heavier/wetter storm cores may also contain some hail. Nonetheless, the severe threat should be isolated and a WW issuance is unlikely. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37890491 38880469 39610354 39960222 39870109 39210030 38319999 37670007 37050099 36820310 37330410 37890491 Read more

MD 0784 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142153Z - 142300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms should continue with an isolated severe wind and hail threat through the afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms have been maturing into multicells and transient supercells over the past couple of hours along the SD/NE border. Ahead of these storms, temperatures have warmed to around 80 F amid upper 40s F dewpoints (locally higher along a surface boundary), supporting around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (per latest mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings). Deep-layer shear is relatively weak, but steep tropospheric lapse rates suggest that isolated instances of severe hail and wind may accompany the stronger updrafts, particularly with any sustained supercell structures this afternoon and evening. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42690338 43590235 44180122 44180039 43799962 42999880 42669868 42239888 41749959 41410018 41640072 42060141 42360235 42690338 Read more

Brush fires and wildfires were becoming a bigger concern on the Treasure Coast. At least one to two brush fires have occurred daily, ranging from small flare-ups to blazes a couple hundred of acres in size. The public was asked not to have any bonfires or burn vegetation. There is no official burn ban in effect. WPEC-TV CBS 12 West Palm Beach (Fla.), May 14, 2024

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW TUP TO 30 WNW MSL TO 35 NW MSL TO 30 ESE MKL TO 20 SSE MKL. ..SPC..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-142340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC057-081-115-117-141-142340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ITAWAMBA LEE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TISHOMINGO TNC003-015-021-031-037-043-051-055-061-081-083-085-099-101-103- 111-117-119-125-127-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177-181-187-189- 142340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW TUP TO 30 WNW MSL TO 35 NW MSL TO 30 ESE MKL TO 20 SSE MKL. ..SPC..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-142340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC057-081-115-117-141-142340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ITAWAMBA LEE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TISHOMINGO TNC003-015-021-031-037-043-051-055-061-081-083-085-099-101-103- 111-117-119-125-127-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177-181-187-189- 142340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 242 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 141850Z - 150100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama Northeast Mississippi Western and middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to form and spread east-northeastward from northern Mississippi and western Tennessee toward northwest Alabama and middle Tennessee through late afternoon/evening. The strongest clusters and/or storms with supercell structure will be capable of producing isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and isolated damaging winds near 60 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles southwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 35 miles northwest of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL/EASTERN SC INTO COASTAL/SOUTHERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of coastal/eastern SC into coastal/southern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142048Z - 142245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with thunderstorms moving northeastward this afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...An MCV related to convection that occurred earlier today across the Southeast remains evident over central NC and vicinity this afternoon. Although cloud cover has remained prevalent across coastal NC/SC today, modest daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass has occurred. Corresponding weak instability (MLCAPE generally 250-750 J/kg) may be sufficient to support surface-based convection through the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening along/near the NC/SC Coast. Latest VWP from KLTX shows a veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels, associated with the MCV. Even though there appears to be some weakness in the flow in the 1-2 km AGL layer, around 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH may still support low-level updraft rotation and the threat for a brief tornado with any cell that can strengthen. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur. The overall severe threat is expected to remain marginal/isolated due to the limited instability, and watch issuance is not expected at this time. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33417920 34017987 34707968 35057883 34927793 34457739 33807788 33557854 33417920 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Western US ridging is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the week as northwest flow aloft trends more zonal. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are forecast over the central and eastern US. Stronger flow aloft will remain suppressed farther south over the CONUS, limiting fire-weather chances in the short term. Into the weekend and early next week, flow aloft will turn more southwesterly ahead of a deepening western US trough. Dry and breezy conditions appear likely to support critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Southwest and southern High Plains... Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as modestly active southern stream flow aloft continues over the southern US. Confidence in sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low through this time period owing to the potential for precipitation and transient returning moisture. However, several days of warm temperatures and drying may support locally elevated fire-weather potential and drying of local fuels into the weekend. A more substantial fire-weather risk appears likely to develop D6/Sun through D8/Tue as southwesterly flow aloft begins to move onshore. Ahead of the southwesterly flow, a deepening lee cyclone will bolster low-level surface winds behind a trailing lee trough/dryline. With sustained winds likely to be near 15-25 mph overlapping with RH values below 15%, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over parts of southern NM and west TX. Medium-range and ensemble guidance have shown better agreement/consistency in recent forecast cycles, though timing differences persist earlier on D6/sun. As guidance continues to converge on a solution, higher critical probabilities and refinement of the exact areal extent of critical conditions will likely become necessary. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more