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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Texas/Louisiana to Lower Mississippi Valley... Initially, a small but well-organized cluster of storms is moving southeastward across North Texas early this morning. These initially elevated storms should grow further upscale and intensify into the afternoon, owing to the diurnal destabilization trends and the progressive interaction with a northward advance of richer low-level moisture via a northward-shifting maritime warm front out of south Texas this morning. An evolving post-frontal upslope regime and stronger/differential heating will likely also aid additional peripheral deep convective development this afternoon from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. This is where MLCAPE may reach 2000-4000 J/kg beneath relatively strong southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields, which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial east-southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale-growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist eastward into Louisiana and other areas of the Gulf Coast through late tonight as the near-coastal boundary shifts northward. ...Ozarks/Middle Mississippi Valley... Potentially aided by a weak MCV, a sizable cluster/corridor of thunderstorms is ongoing across the Ozarks early this morning. This convection and related cloud cover will largely tend to hinder warm sector destabilization. However, stronger heating/moderate destabilization could eventually occur later this afternoon on the southern fringe of these remnants. Scattered thunderstorms would likely redevelop and intensify by late afternoon. A belt of moderately strong mid-level westerlies (45+ kt) would support some supercells and more prevalent multicells, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. ...Parts of Wisconsin/northern Illinois/eastern Iowa... Preceding a shortwave trough overspreading Minnesota toward Lake Superior, a semi-moist warm sector, with upper 50s/some lower 60s F surface dewpoints, will become established ahead of an east/southeast-moving cold front. Thunderstorms should develop/intensify this afternoon to the south-southwest of residual early day precipitation and cloud cover, with MLCAPE potentially exceeding 1000 J/kg. Low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain somewhat weak, but enough to support multicells potentially capable of hail and locally damaging winds. ...Southern Florida... Although the primary mid-level wave and associated convection has shifted eastward offshore, thunderstorms may redevelop and intensify through the diurnal heating cycle along/south of the residual front, enhanced by the east coast sea breeze. Even as mid-level heights begin to rise, mid-level temperatures will remain cool (-10 to -11C at 500 mb) with steep mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of strong deep-layer wind profiles. While any severe storms should remain isolated, these profiles could support a supercell or two and sustained multicells capable of large hail and locally damaging winds, especially across the southeast Florida Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/16/2024 Read more

MD 0800 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0800 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...Parts of northwest into central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161128Z - 161330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An increase in the severe wind/hail threat is possible through the morning. Watch issuance is possible, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster and its attendant cold pool have begun propagating more to the southeast this morning across northwest TX, with occasional strong to severe gusts noted along the gust front. Meanwhile, rich low-level moisture currently confined to from the Edwards Plateau region into central/south TX is expected to quickly advect northward through the morning, aided by a southerly low-level jet. This could eventually lead to renewed storm development along and north of the southeastward-moving outflow, as MUCAPE increases to near/above 2000 J/kg. While convection through much of the morning will likely remain somewhat elevated, gradually increasing midlevel flow in advance of an approaching shortwave trough will support sufficient effective shear for storm organization. An elevated supercell or two will be possible, with an attendant threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some additional upscale growth will be possible, with an MCS potentially propagating southeastward along the instability gradient later today. A more substantial severe threat is expected later today across parts of central TX. Onset/timing of the higher-end severe potential remains somewhat uncertain, but watch issuance will become increasingly possible through the morning. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32589723 31279645 30689639 30639743 30789872 30949953 31940068 32280084 32759964 33399894 33399815 32589723 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161123
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within the next couple of days.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the
system moves slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south
of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range has come into better agreement regarding the progression of a low-amplitude, lead shortwave trough that is expected to progress eastward into the central Plains on D4/Sunday, ahead of a deeper shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring mid 60s dewpoints into KS, with lower 60s dewpoints likely reaching NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates are anticipated atop this low-level moisture, contributing to moderate/strong buoyancy across much of the central Plains during the afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline combined with strengthening large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is expected to result in convective initiation. Deep-layer vertical shear will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe hazards. Additional severe appears possible across the central Plains on D5/Monday as a cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. However, uncertainty regarding the influence of D4/Sunday's thunderstorms as well as a more neutral large-scale environment preclude introducing a 15% area with this outlook. This cold front is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward on D6/Tuesday, likely progressing through OK and into TX as well as through much of the Mid MS Valley. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, with environmental conditions appearing favorable for severe over a large area from TX through the Mid MS Valley. However, most of guidance has only come into agreement regarding this scenario on the most recent runs. Additionally, timing differences within the guidance make it difficult to assess where the most favorable areas for severe will be. These factors result in predictability limitations, with uncertainty too great to delineate any outlook area. Another shortwave trough may enter the central/southern Plains on D8/Thursday, but guidance remains varied on the strength and timing of this wave. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range has come into better agreement regarding the progression of a low-amplitude, lead shortwave trough that is expected to progress eastward into the central Plains on D4/Sunday, ahead of a deeper shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring mid 60s dewpoints into KS, with lower 60s dewpoints likely reaching NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates are anticipated atop this low-level moisture, contributing to moderate/strong buoyancy across much of the central Plains during the afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline combined with strengthening large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is expected to result in convective initiation. Deep-layer vertical shear will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe hazards. Additional severe appears possible across the central Plains on D5/Monday as a cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. However, uncertainty regarding the influence of D4/Sunday's thunderstorms as well as a more neutral large-scale environment preclude introducing a 15% area with this outlook. This cold front is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward on D6/Tuesday, likely progressing through OK and into TX as well as through much of the Mid MS Valley. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, with environmental conditions appearing favorable for severe over a large area from TX through the Mid MS Valley. However, most of guidance has only come into agreement regarding this scenario on the most recent runs. Additionally, timing differences within the guidance make it difficult to assess where the most favorable areas for severe will be. These factors result in predictability limitations, with uncertainty too great to delineate any outlook area. Another shortwave trough may enter the central/southern Plains on D8/Thursday, but guidance remains varied on the strength and timing of this wave. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range has come into better agreement regarding the progression of a low-amplitude, lead shortwave trough that is expected to progress eastward into the central Plains on D4/Sunday, ahead of a deeper shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring mid 60s dewpoints into KS, with lower 60s dewpoints likely reaching NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates are anticipated atop this low-level moisture, contributing to moderate/strong buoyancy across much of the central Plains during the afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline combined with strengthening large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is expected to result in convective initiation. Deep-layer vertical shear will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe hazards. Additional severe appears possible across the central Plains on D5/Monday as a cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. However, uncertainty regarding the influence of D4/Sunday's thunderstorms as well as a more neutral large-scale environment preclude introducing a 15% area with this outlook. This cold front is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward on D6/Tuesday, likely progressing through OK and into TX as well as through much of the Mid MS Valley. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, with environmental conditions appearing favorable for severe over a large area from TX through the Mid MS Valley. However, most of guidance has only come into agreement regarding this scenario on the most recent runs. Additionally, timing differences within the guidance make it difficult to assess where the most favorable areas for severe will be. These factors result in predictability limitations, with uncertainty too great to delineate any outlook area. Another shortwave trough may enter the central/southern Plains on D8/Thursday, but guidance remains varied on the strength and timing of this wave. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range has come into better agreement regarding the progression of a low-amplitude, lead shortwave trough that is expected to progress eastward into the central Plains on D4/Sunday, ahead of a deeper shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring mid 60s dewpoints into KS, with lower 60s dewpoints likely reaching NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates are anticipated atop this low-level moisture, contributing to moderate/strong buoyancy across much of the central Plains during the afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline combined with strengthening large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is expected to result in convective initiation. Deep-layer vertical shear will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe hazards. Additional severe appears possible across the central Plains on D5/Monday as a cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. However, uncertainty regarding the influence of D4/Sunday's thunderstorms as well as a more neutral large-scale environment preclude introducing a 15% area with this outlook. This cold front is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward on D6/Tuesday, likely progressing through OK and into TX as well as through much of the Mid MS Valley. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, with environmental conditions appearing favorable for severe over a large area from TX through the Mid MS Valley. However, most of guidance has only come into agreement regarding this scenario on the most recent runs. Additionally, timing differences within the guidance make it difficult to assess where the most favorable areas for severe will be. These factors result in predictability limitations, with uncertainty too great to delineate any outlook area. Another shortwave trough may enter the central/southern Plains on D8/Thursday, but guidance remains varied on the strength and timing of this wave. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range has come into better agreement regarding the progression of a low-amplitude, lead shortwave trough that is expected to progress eastward into the central Plains on D4/Sunday, ahead of a deeper shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring mid 60s dewpoints into KS, with lower 60s dewpoints likely reaching NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates are anticipated atop this low-level moisture, contributing to moderate/strong buoyancy across much of the central Plains during the afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline combined with strengthening large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is expected to result in convective initiation. Deep-layer vertical shear will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe hazards. Additional severe appears possible across the central Plains on D5/Monday as a cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. However, uncertainty regarding the influence of D4/Sunday's thunderstorms as well as a more neutral large-scale environment preclude introducing a 15% area with this outlook. This cold front is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward on D6/Tuesday, likely progressing through OK and into TX as well as through much of the Mid MS Valley. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, with environmental conditions appearing favorable for severe over a large area from TX through the Mid MS Valley. However, most of guidance has only come into agreement regarding this scenario on the most recent runs. Additionally, timing differences within the guidance make it difficult to assess where the most favorable areas for severe will be. These factors result in predictability limitations, with uncertainty too great to delineate any outlook area. Another shortwave trough may enter the central/southern Plains on D8/Thursday, but guidance remains varied on the strength and timing of this wave. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range has come into better agreement regarding the progression of a low-amplitude, lead shortwave trough that is expected to progress eastward into the central Plains on D4/Sunday, ahead of a deeper shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring mid 60s dewpoints into KS, with lower 60s dewpoints likely reaching NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates are anticipated atop this low-level moisture, contributing to moderate/strong buoyancy across much of the central Plains during the afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline combined with strengthening large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is expected to result in convective initiation. Deep-layer vertical shear will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe hazards. Additional severe appears possible across the central Plains on D5/Monday as a cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. However, uncertainty regarding the influence of D4/Sunday's thunderstorms as well as a more neutral large-scale environment preclude introducing a 15% area with this outlook. This cold front is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward on D6/Tuesday, likely progressing through OK and into TX as well as through much of the Mid MS Valley. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, with environmental conditions appearing favorable for severe over a large area from TX through the Mid MS Valley. However, most of guidance has only come into agreement regarding this scenario on the most recent runs. Additionally, timing differences within the guidance make it difficult to assess where the most favorable areas for severe will be. These factors result in predictability limitations, with uncertainty too great to delineate any outlook area. Another shortwave trough may enter the central/southern Plains on D8/Thursday, but guidance remains varied on the strength and timing of this wave. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range has come into better agreement regarding the progression of a low-amplitude, lead shortwave trough that is expected to progress eastward into the central Plains on D4/Sunday, ahead of a deeper shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring mid 60s dewpoints into KS, with lower 60s dewpoints likely reaching NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates are anticipated atop this low-level moisture, contributing to moderate/strong buoyancy across much of the central Plains during the afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline combined with strengthening large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is expected to result in convective initiation. Deep-layer vertical shear will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe hazards. Additional severe appears possible across the central Plains on D5/Monday as a cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. However, uncertainty regarding the influence of D4/Sunday's thunderstorms as well as a more neutral large-scale environment preclude introducing a 15% area with this outlook. This cold front is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward on D6/Tuesday, likely progressing through OK and into TX as well as through much of the Mid MS Valley. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, with environmental conditions appearing favorable for severe over a large area from TX through the Mid MS Valley. However, most of guidance has only come into agreement regarding this scenario on the most recent runs. Additionally, timing differences within the guidance make it difficult to assess where the most favorable areas for severe will be. These factors result in predictability limitations, with uncertainty too great to delineate any outlook area. Another shortwave trough may enter the central/southern Plains on D8/Thursday, but guidance remains varied on the strength and timing of this wave. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range has come into better agreement regarding the progression of a low-amplitude, lead shortwave trough that is expected to progress eastward into the central Plains on D4/Sunday, ahead of a deeper shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring mid 60s dewpoints into KS, with lower 60s dewpoints likely reaching NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates are anticipated atop this low-level moisture, contributing to moderate/strong buoyancy across much of the central Plains during the afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline combined with strengthening large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is expected to result in convective initiation. Deep-layer vertical shear will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe hazards. Additional severe appears possible across the central Plains on D5/Monday as a cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. However, uncertainty regarding the influence of D4/Sunday's thunderstorms as well as a more neutral large-scale environment preclude introducing a 15% area with this outlook. This cold front is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward on D6/Tuesday, likely progressing through OK and into TX as well as through much of the Mid MS Valley. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, with environmental conditions appearing favorable for severe over a large area from TX through the Mid MS Valley. However, most of guidance has only come into agreement regarding this scenario on the most recent runs. Additionally, timing differences within the guidance make it difficult to assess where the most favorable areas for severe will be. These factors result in predictability limitations, with uncertainty too great to delineate any outlook area. Another shortwave trough may enter the central/southern Plains on D8/Thursday, but guidance remains varied on the strength and timing of this wave. Read more

MD 0799 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0799 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains into western north TX and southwest OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 160846Z - 161015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated hail and localized strong/damaging gusts may persist through the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster, which has produced a few severe gusts within the West Texas Mesonet, is moving east of Lubbock early this morning. This cluster continues to show some organization, with notable pressure rises in its wake, and isolated severe gusts will remain possible as it continues to move eastward within a modestly favorable environment. Other strong cells have developed in a band extending east from the cluster, with golfball-size hail recently reported in Wilbarger County. While this convection is elevated atop a relatively cool/stable near-surface layer, MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and sufficient effective shear could support maintenance or some intensification of these ongoing storms in the hours prior to sunrise. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat, while rather dry subcloud layers could support a continued threat for localized strong to severe gusts. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33990078 34070065 34100008 34269968 34539899 34699831 33899802 33599862 33439912 33300010 33250092 33390118 33990078 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more