Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...1700Z Update... A cold front has moved through most of the Permian Basin this morning, with a dryline already pushing eastward into the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. This eastward moving trend of the dryline will continue through afternoon as mostly clear skies allow for good to excellent mixing conditions. Very warm afternoon temperatures from the Davis Mountains southward into the Big Bend, along with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, will result in RH dropping as low as the single digits. West to northwest sustained 15-20 mph winds are still anticipated, with localized Critical sustained winds of 20-25 mph later this afternoon near and south of the Davis Mountains. The only minor change to the Elevated area was to eliminate a small portion of the northern extent based on the current position of the cold front and its slow progression to the south throughout the afternoon. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more