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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/16/2024 Read more

WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0248 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0248 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0248 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0248 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0248 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0248 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 248 SEVERE TSTM TX 161550Z - 162200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1050 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms, including both supercells and bowing segments, are expected to continue to increase in coverage and intensify into the afternoon, mainly along and south of an outflow boundary that continues to move southward. Damaging winds of 60-70 mph will be the most common threat, though any more discrete/supercell storms could produce large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. An isolated tornado or two could also occur with favorable storm/boundary interactions. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Junction TX to 50 miles southeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Thompson Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu May 16 15:29:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Texas/Louisiana to Lower Mississippi Valley... Initially, a small but well-organized cluster of storms is moving southeastward across North Texas early this morning. These initially elevated storms should grow further upscale and intensify into the afternoon, owing to the diurnal destabilization trends and the progressive interaction with a northward advance of richer low-level moisture via a northward-shifting maritime warm front out of south Texas this morning. An evolving post-frontal upslope regime and stronger/differential heating will likely also aid additional peripheral deep convective development this afternoon from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. This is where MLCAPE may reach 2000-4000 J/kg beneath relatively strong southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields, which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial east-southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale-growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist eastward into Louisiana and other areas of the Gulf Coast through late tonight as the near-coastal boundary shifts northward. ...Ozarks/Middle Mississippi Valley... Potentially aided by a weak MCV, a sizable cluster/corridor of thunderstorms is ongoing across the Ozarks early this morning. This convection and related cloud cover will largely tend to hinder warm sector destabilization. However, stronger heating/moderate destabilization could eventually occur later this afternoon on the southern fringe of these remnants. Scattered thunderstorms would likely redevelop and intensify by late afternoon. A belt of moderately strong mid-level westerlies (45+ kt) would support some supercells and more prevalent multicells, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. ...Parts of Wisconsin/northern Illinois/eastern Iowa... Preceding a shortwave trough overspreading Minnesota toward Lake Superior, a semi-moist warm sector, with upper 50s/some lower 60s F surface dewpoints, will become established ahead of an east/southeast-moving cold front. Thunderstorms should develop/intensify this afternoon to the south-southwest of residual early day precipitation and cloud cover, with MLCAPE potentially exceeding 1000 J/kg. Low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain somewhat weak, but enough to support multicells potentially capable of hail and locally damaging winds. ...Southern Florida... Although the primary mid-level wave and associated convection has shifted eastward offshore, thunderstorms may redevelop and intensify through the diurnal heating cycle along/south of the residual front, enhanced by the east coast sea breeze. Even as mid-level heights begin to rise, mid-level temperatures will remain cool (-10 to -11C at 500 mb) with steep mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of strong deep-layer wind profiles. While any severe storms should remain isolated, these profiles could support a supercell or two and sustained multicells capable of large hail and locally damaging winds, especially across the southeast Florida Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Texas/Louisiana to Lower Mississippi Valley... Initially, a small but well-organized cluster of storms is moving southeastward across North Texas early this morning. These initially elevated storms should grow further upscale and intensify into the afternoon, owing to the diurnal destabilization trends and the progressive interaction with a northward advance of richer low-level moisture via a northward-shifting maritime warm front out of south Texas this morning. An evolving post-frontal upslope regime and stronger/differential heating will likely also aid additional peripheral deep convective development this afternoon from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. This is where MLCAPE may reach 2000-4000 J/kg beneath relatively strong southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields, which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial east-southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale-growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist eastward into Louisiana and other areas of the Gulf Coast through late tonight as the near-coastal boundary shifts northward. ...Ozarks/Middle Mississippi Valley... Potentially aided by a weak MCV, a sizable cluster/corridor of thunderstorms is ongoing across the Ozarks early this morning. This convection and related cloud cover will largely tend to hinder warm sector destabilization. However, stronger heating/moderate destabilization could eventually occur later this afternoon on the southern fringe of these remnants. Scattered thunderstorms would likely redevelop and intensify by late afternoon. A belt of moderately strong mid-level westerlies (45+ kt) would support some supercells and more prevalent multicells, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. ...Parts of Wisconsin/northern Illinois/eastern Iowa... Preceding a shortwave trough overspreading Minnesota toward Lake Superior, a semi-moist warm sector, with upper 50s/some lower 60s F surface dewpoints, will become established ahead of an east/southeast-moving cold front. Thunderstorms should develop/intensify this afternoon to the south-southwest of residual early day precipitation and cloud cover, with MLCAPE potentially exceeding 1000 J/kg. Low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain somewhat weak, but enough to support multicells potentially capable of hail and locally damaging winds. ...Southern Florida... Although the primary mid-level wave and associated convection has shifted eastward offshore, thunderstorms may redevelop and intensify through the diurnal heating cycle along/south of the residual front, enhanced by the east coast sea breeze. Even as mid-level heights begin to rise, mid-level temperatures will remain cool (-10 to -11C at 500 mb) with steep mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of strong deep-layer wind profiles. While any severe storms should remain isolated, these profiles could support a supercell or two and sustained multicells capable of large hail and locally damaging winds, especially across the southeast Florida Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Texas/Louisiana to Lower Mississippi Valley... Initially, a small but well-organized cluster of storms is moving southeastward across North Texas early this morning. These initially elevated storms should grow further upscale and intensify into the afternoon, owing to the diurnal destabilization trends and the progressive interaction with a northward advance of richer low-level moisture via a northward-shifting maritime warm front out of south Texas this morning. An evolving post-frontal upslope regime and stronger/differential heating will likely also aid additional peripheral deep convective development this afternoon from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. This is where MLCAPE may reach 2000-4000 J/kg beneath relatively strong southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields, which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial east-southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale-growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist eastward into Louisiana and other areas of the Gulf Coast through late tonight as the near-coastal boundary shifts northward. ...Ozarks/Middle Mississippi Valley... Potentially aided by a weak MCV, a sizable cluster/corridor of thunderstorms is ongoing across the Ozarks early this morning. This convection and related cloud cover will largely tend to hinder warm sector destabilization. However, stronger heating/moderate destabilization could eventually occur later this afternoon on the southern fringe of these remnants. Scattered thunderstorms would likely redevelop and intensify by late afternoon. A belt of moderately strong mid-level westerlies (45+ kt) would support some supercells and more prevalent multicells, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. ...Parts of Wisconsin/northern Illinois/eastern Iowa... Preceding a shortwave trough overspreading Minnesota toward Lake Superior, a semi-moist warm sector, with upper 50s/some lower 60s F surface dewpoints, will become established ahead of an east/southeast-moving cold front. Thunderstorms should develop/intensify this afternoon to the south-southwest of residual early day precipitation and cloud cover, with MLCAPE potentially exceeding 1000 J/kg. Low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain somewhat weak, but enough to support multicells potentially capable of hail and locally damaging winds. ...Southern Florida... Although the primary mid-level wave and associated convection has shifted eastward offshore, thunderstorms may redevelop and intensify through the diurnal heating cycle along/south of the residual front, enhanced by the east coast sea breeze. Even as mid-level heights begin to rise, mid-level temperatures will remain cool (-10 to -11C at 500 mb) with steep mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of strong deep-layer wind profiles. While any severe storms should remain isolated, these profiles could support a supercell or two and sustained multicells capable of large hail and locally damaging winds, especially across the southeast Florida Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Texas/Louisiana to Lower Mississippi Valley... Initially, a small but well-organized cluster of storms is moving southeastward across North Texas early this morning. These initially elevated storms should grow further upscale and intensify into the afternoon, owing to the diurnal destabilization trends and the progressive interaction with a northward advance of richer low-level moisture via a northward-shifting maritime warm front out of south Texas this morning. An evolving post-frontal upslope regime and stronger/differential heating will likely also aid additional peripheral deep convective development this afternoon from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. This is where MLCAPE may reach 2000-4000 J/kg beneath relatively strong southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields, which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial east-southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale-growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist eastward into Louisiana and other areas of the Gulf Coast through late tonight as the near-coastal boundary shifts northward. ...Ozarks/Middle Mississippi Valley... Potentially aided by a weak MCV, a sizable cluster/corridor of thunderstorms is ongoing across the Ozarks early this morning. This convection and related cloud cover will largely tend to hinder warm sector destabilization. However, stronger heating/moderate destabilization could eventually occur later this afternoon on the southern fringe of these remnants. Scattered thunderstorms would likely redevelop and intensify by late afternoon. A belt of moderately strong mid-level westerlies (45+ kt) would support some supercells and more prevalent multicells, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. ...Parts of Wisconsin/northern Illinois/eastern Iowa... Preceding a shortwave trough overspreading Minnesota toward Lake Superior, a semi-moist warm sector, with upper 50s/some lower 60s F surface dewpoints, will become established ahead of an east/southeast-moving cold front. Thunderstorms should develop/intensify this afternoon to the south-southwest of residual early day precipitation and cloud cover, with MLCAPE potentially exceeding 1000 J/kg. Low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain somewhat weak, but enough to support multicells potentially capable of hail and locally damaging winds. ...Southern Florida... Although the primary mid-level wave and associated convection has shifted eastward offshore, thunderstorms may redevelop and intensify through the diurnal heating cycle along/south of the residual front, enhanced by the east coast sea breeze. Even as mid-level heights begin to rise, mid-level temperatures will remain cool (-10 to -11C at 500 mb) with steep mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of strong deep-layer wind profiles. While any severe storms should remain isolated, these profiles could support a supercell or two and sustained multicells capable of large hail and locally damaging winds, especially across the southeast Florida Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Texas/Louisiana to Lower Mississippi Valley... Initially, a small but well-organized cluster of storms is moving southeastward across North Texas early this morning. These initially elevated storms should grow further upscale and intensify into the afternoon, owing to the diurnal destabilization trends and the progressive interaction with a northward advance of richer low-level moisture via a northward-shifting maritime warm front out of south Texas this morning. An evolving post-frontal upslope regime and stronger/differential heating will likely also aid additional peripheral deep convective development this afternoon from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. This is where MLCAPE may reach 2000-4000 J/kg beneath relatively strong southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields, which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial east-southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale-growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist eastward into Louisiana and other areas of the Gulf Coast through late tonight as the near-coastal boundary shifts northward. ...Ozarks/Middle Mississippi Valley... Potentially aided by a weak MCV, a sizable cluster/corridor of thunderstorms is ongoing across the Ozarks early this morning. This convection and related cloud cover will largely tend to hinder warm sector destabilization. However, stronger heating/moderate destabilization could eventually occur later this afternoon on the southern fringe of these remnants. Scattered thunderstorms would likely redevelop and intensify by late afternoon. A belt of moderately strong mid-level westerlies (45+ kt) would support some supercells and more prevalent multicells, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. ...Parts of Wisconsin/northern Illinois/eastern Iowa... Preceding a shortwave trough overspreading Minnesota toward Lake Superior, a semi-moist warm sector, with upper 50s/some lower 60s F surface dewpoints, will become established ahead of an east/southeast-moving cold front. Thunderstorms should develop/intensify this afternoon to the south-southwest of residual early day precipitation and cloud cover, with MLCAPE potentially exceeding 1000 J/kg. Low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain somewhat weak, but enough to support multicells potentially capable of hail and locally damaging winds. ...Southern Florida... Although the primary mid-level wave and associated convection has shifted eastward offshore, thunderstorms may redevelop and intensify through the diurnal heating cycle along/south of the residual front, enhanced by the east coast sea breeze. Even as mid-level heights begin to rise, mid-level temperatures will remain cool (-10 to -11C at 500 mb) with steep mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of strong deep-layer wind profiles. While any severe storms should remain isolated, these profiles could support a supercell or two and sustained multicells capable of large hail and locally damaging winds, especially across the southeast Florida Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to increase across parts of central and southeastern Texas this afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve, accompanied by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Texas/Louisiana to Lower Mississippi Valley... Initially, a small but well-organized cluster of storms is moving southeastward across North Texas early this morning. These initially elevated storms should grow further upscale and intensify into the afternoon, owing to the diurnal destabilization trends and the progressive interaction with a northward advance of richer low-level moisture via a northward-shifting maritime warm front out of south Texas this morning. An evolving post-frontal upslope regime and stronger/differential heating will likely also aid additional peripheral deep convective development this afternoon from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys into central Texas. This is where MLCAPE may reach 2000-4000 J/kg beneath relatively strong southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering with height of initially modest low-level wind fields, which are forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into southeastern Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat with initial east-southeastward propagating supercells by late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering supercells and upscale-growing convection. At least one prominent cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into southeastern Texas by evening, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist eastward into Louisiana and other areas of the Gulf Coast through late tonight as the near-coastal boundary shifts northward. ...Ozarks/Middle Mississippi Valley... Potentially aided by a weak MCV, a sizable cluster/corridor of thunderstorms is ongoing across the Ozarks early this morning. This convection and related cloud cover will largely tend to hinder warm sector destabilization. However, stronger heating/moderate destabilization could eventually occur later this afternoon on the southern fringe of these remnants. Scattered thunderstorms would likely redevelop and intensify by late afternoon. A belt of moderately strong mid-level westerlies (45+ kt) would support some supercells and more prevalent multicells, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. ...Parts of Wisconsin/northern Illinois/eastern Iowa... Preceding a shortwave trough overspreading Minnesota toward Lake Superior, a semi-moist warm sector, with upper 50s/some lower 60s F surface dewpoints, will become established ahead of an east/southeast-moving cold front. Thunderstorms should develop/intensify this afternoon to the south-southwest of residual early day precipitation and cloud cover, with MLCAPE potentially exceeding 1000 J/kg. Low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain somewhat weak, but enough to support multicells potentially capable of hail and locally damaging winds. ...Southern Florida... Although the primary mid-level wave and associated convection has shifted eastward offshore, thunderstorms may redevelop and intensify through the diurnal heating cycle along/south of the residual front, enhanced by the east coast sea breeze. Even as mid-level heights begin to rise, mid-level temperatures will remain cool (-10 to -11C at 500 mb) with steep mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of strong deep-layer wind profiles. While any severe storms should remain isolated, these profiles could support a supercell or two and sustained multicells capable of large hail and locally damaging winds, especially across the southeast Florida Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/16/2024 Read more