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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Central Plains into eastern NM... Modest height falls are forecast across the region as a broad upper trough persists across much of the central U.S. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to rotate through northwesterly flow aloft and will support areas of convection through the period. At the surface, a weak surface low may develop over western NE/KS, while generally surface troughing extending into southeast CO/northeast NM. Boundary-layer moisture will be modest across much of the region given prior cold frontal passages in the past few days. However, south/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints expanding northward across the southern High Plains into portions of KS/NE. Cool temperatures aloft and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates spreading into KS/NE will support a corridor of moderate instability from the Raton Mesa vicinity north/northeast into western KS/central NE by mid-afternoon. Some forecast guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across parts of SD/NE. This introduces uncertainty in convective evolution/timing, as this activity may slowly increase in intensity through the day. Or, convection may dissipate and leave an outflow boundary across central NE. Confidence is higher that convection will develop further south into western KS and the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the surface through during the afternoon. Vertical shear will support initial high-based supercells. Steep low-level lapse rates and high temperature-dewpoint spreads amid mostly weak low-level flow will support strong/severe outflow winds. This may allow for storm consolidation into an east/southeast propagating MCS during the evening. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will increase. In the absence of a strong low-level jet during the evening, eastward extent of the severe risk should diminish into central KS with time. Initial supercell storms also will pose a risk for large hail, with some hail up to baseball size possible. With southward extent, vertical shear and large-scale ascent will weaken, and organized thunderstorm coverage should be somewhat lower into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Showers may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of NY and New England in a warm advection regime ahead of a cold front. This may limit heating and low-level destabilization into the afternoon. As a result, severe potential may be limited despite 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a very moist low-level airmass. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence is too low to add unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Thunderstorms are expected with southward extent into eastern VA and the Carolinas ahead of the surface cold front. While stronger destabilization is expected with southward extent, vertical shear will be very weak. However, steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support a couple of strong wet microbursts in otherwise disorganized storm clusters. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Central Plains into eastern NM... Modest height falls are forecast across the region as a broad upper trough persists across much of the central U.S. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to rotate through northwesterly flow aloft and will support areas of convection through the period. At the surface, a weak surface low may develop over western NE/KS, while generally surface troughing extending into southeast CO/northeast NM. Boundary-layer moisture will be modest across much of the region given prior cold frontal passages in the past few days. However, south/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints expanding northward across the southern High Plains into portions of KS/NE. Cool temperatures aloft and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates spreading into KS/NE will support a corridor of moderate instability from the Raton Mesa vicinity north/northeast into western KS/central NE by mid-afternoon. Some forecast guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across parts of SD/NE. This introduces uncertainty in convective evolution/timing, as this activity may slowly increase in intensity through the day. Or, convection may dissipate and leave an outflow boundary across central NE. Confidence is higher that convection will develop further south into western KS and the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the surface through during the afternoon. Vertical shear will support initial high-based supercells. Steep low-level lapse rates and high temperature-dewpoint spreads amid mostly weak low-level flow will support strong/severe outflow winds. This may allow for storm consolidation into an east/southeast propagating MCS during the evening. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will increase. In the absence of a strong low-level jet during the evening, eastward extent of the severe risk should diminish into central KS with time. Initial supercell storms also will pose a risk for large hail, with some hail up to baseball size possible. With southward extent, vertical shear and large-scale ascent will weaken, and organized thunderstorm coverage should be somewhat lower into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Showers may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of NY and New England in a warm advection regime ahead of a cold front. This may limit heating and low-level destabilization into the afternoon. As a result, severe potential may be limited despite 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a very moist low-level airmass. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence is too low to add unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Thunderstorms are expected with southward extent into eastern VA and the Carolinas ahead of the surface cold front. While stronger destabilization is expected with southward extent, vertical shear will be very weak. However, steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support a couple of strong wet microbursts in otherwise disorganized storm clusters. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Central Plains into eastern NM... Modest height falls are forecast across the region as a broad upper trough persists across much of the central U.S. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to rotate through northwesterly flow aloft and will support areas of convection through the period. At the surface, a weak surface low may develop over western NE/KS, while generally surface troughing extending into southeast CO/northeast NM. Boundary-layer moisture will be modest across much of the region given prior cold frontal passages in the past few days. However, south/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints expanding northward across the southern High Plains into portions of KS/NE. Cool temperatures aloft and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates spreading into KS/NE will support a corridor of moderate instability from the Raton Mesa vicinity north/northeast into western KS/central NE by mid-afternoon. Some forecast guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across parts of SD/NE. This introduces uncertainty in convective evolution/timing, as this activity may slowly increase in intensity through the day. Or, convection may dissipate and leave an outflow boundary across central NE. Confidence is higher that convection will develop further south into western KS and the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the surface through during the afternoon. Vertical shear will support initial high-based supercells. Steep low-level lapse rates and high temperature-dewpoint spreads amid mostly weak low-level flow will support strong/severe outflow winds. This may allow for storm consolidation into an east/southeast propagating MCS during the evening. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will increase. In the absence of a strong low-level jet during the evening, eastward extent of the severe risk should diminish into central KS with time. Initial supercell storms also will pose a risk for large hail, with some hail up to baseball size possible. With southward extent, vertical shear and large-scale ascent will weaken, and organized thunderstorm coverage should be somewhat lower into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Showers may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of NY and New England in a warm advection regime ahead of a cold front. This may limit heating and low-level destabilization into the afternoon. As a result, severe potential may be limited despite 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a very moist low-level airmass. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence is too low to add unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Thunderstorms are expected with southward extent into eastern VA and the Carolinas ahead of the surface cold front. While stronger destabilization is expected with southward extent, vertical shear will be very weak. However, steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support a couple of strong wet microbursts in otherwise disorganized storm clusters. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Central Plains into eastern NM... Modest height falls are forecast across the region as a broad upper trough persists across much of the central U.S. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to rotate through northwesterly flow aloft and will support areas of convection through the period. At the surface, a weak surface low may develop over western NE/KS, while generally surface troughing extending into southeast CO/northeast NM. Boundary-layer moisture will be modest across much of the region given prior cold frontal passages in the past few days. However, south/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints expanding northward across the southern High Plains into portions of KS/NE. Cool temperatures aloft and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates spreading into KS/NE will support a corridor of moderate instability from the Raton Mesa vicinity north/northeast into western KS/central NE by mid-afternoon. Some forecast guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across parts of SD/NE. This introduces uncertainty in convective evolution/timing, as this activity may slowly increase in intensity through the day. Or, convection may dissipate and leave an outflow boundary across central NE. Confidence is higher that convection will develop further south into western KS and the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the surface through during the afternoon. Vertical shear will support initial high-based supercells. Steep low-level lapse rates and high temperature-dewpoint spreads amid mostly weak low-level flow will support strong/severe outflow winds. This may allow for storm consolidation into an east/southeast propagating MCS during the evening. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will increase. In the absence of a strong low-level jet during the evening, eastward extent of the severe risk should diminish into central KS with time. Initial supercell storms also will pose a risk for large hail, with some hail up to baseball size possible. With southward extent, vertical shear and large-scale ascent will weaken, and organized thunderstorm coverage should be somewhat lower into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Showers may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of NY and New England in a warm advection regime ahead of a cold front. This may limit heating and low-level destabilization into the afternoon. As a result, severe potential may be limited despite 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a very moist low-level airmass. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence is too low to add unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Thunderstorms are expected with southward extent into eastern VA and the Carolinas ahead of the surface cold front. While stronger destabilization is expected with southward extent, vertical shear will be very weak. However, steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support a couple of strong wet microbursts in otherwise disorganized storm clusters. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Central Plains into eastern NM... Modest height falls are forecast across the region as a broad upper trough persists across much of the central U.S. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to rotate through northwesterly flow aloft and will support areas of convection through the period. At the surface, a weak surface low may develop over western NE/KS, while generally surface troughing extending into southeast CO/northeast NM. Boundary-layer moisture will be modest across much of the region given prior cold frontal passages in the past few days. However, south/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints expanding northward across the southern High Plains into portions of KS/NE. Cool temperatures aloft and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates spreading into KS/NE will support a corridor of moderate instability from the Raton Mesa vicinity north/northeast into western KS/central NE by mid-afternoon. Some forecast guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across parts of SD/NE. This introduces uncertainty in convective evolution/timing, as this activity may slowly increase in intensity through the day. Or, convection may dissipate and leave an outflow boundary across central NE. Confidence is higher that convection will develop further south into western KS and the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the surface through during the afternoon. Vertical shear will support initial high-based supercells. Steep low-level lapse rates and high temperature-dewpoint spreads amid mostly weak low-level flow will support strong/severe outflow winds. This may allow for storm consolidation into an east/southeast propagating MCS during the evening. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will increase. In the absence of a strong low-level jet during the evening, eastward extent of the severe risk should diminish into central KS with time. Initial supercell storms also will pose a risk for large hail, with some hail up to baseball size possible. With southward extent, vertical shear and large-scale ascent will weaken, and organized thunderstorm coverage should be somewhat lower into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Showers may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of NY and New England in a warm advection regime ahead of a cold front. This may limit heating and low-level destabilization into the afternoon. As a result, severe potential may be limited despite 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a very moist low-level airmass. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence is too low to add unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Thunderstorms are expected with southward extent into eastern VA and the Carolinas ahead of the surface cold front. While stronger destabilization is expected with southward extent, vertical shear will be very weak. However, steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support a couple of strong wet microbursts in otherwise disorganized storm clusters. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Central Plains into eastern NM... Modest height falls are forecast across the region as a broad upper trough persists across much of the central U.S. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to rotate through northwesterly flow aloft and will support areas of convection through the period. At the surface, a weak surface low may develop over western NE/KS, while generally surface troughing extending into southeast CO/northeast NM. Boundary-layer moisture will be modest across much of the region given prior cold frontal passages in the past few days. However, south/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints expanding northward across the southern High Plains into portions of KS/NE. Cool temperatures aloft and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates spreading into KS/NE will support a corridor of moderate instability from the Raton Mesa vicinity north/northeast into western KS/central NE by mid-afternoon. Some forecast guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across parts of SD/NE. This introduces uncertainty in convective evolution/timing, as this activity may slowly increase in intensity through the day. Or, convection may dissipate and leave an outflow boundary across central NE. Confidence is higher that convection will develop further south into western KS and the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the surface through during the afternoon. Vertical shear will support initial high-based supercells. Steep low-level lapse rates and high temperature-dewpoint spreads amid mostly weak low-level flow will support strong/severe outflow winds. This may allow for storm consolidation into an east/southeast propagating MCS during the evening. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will increase. In the absence of a strong low-level jet during the evening, eastward extent of the severe risk should diminish into central KS with time. Initial supercell storms also will pose a risk for large hail, with some hail up to baseball size possible. With southward extent, vertical shear and large-scale ascent will weaken, and organized thunderstorm coverage should be somewhat lower into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Showers may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of NY and New England in a warm advection regime ahead of a cold front. This may limit heating and low-level destabilization into the afternoon. As a result, severe potential may be limited despite 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a very moist low-level airmass. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence is too low to add unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Thunderstorms are expected with southward extent into eastern VA and the Carolinas ahead of the surface cold front. While stronger destabilization is expected with southward extent, vertical shear will be very weak. However, steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support a couple of strong wet microbursts in otherwise disorganized storm clusters. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Central Plains into eastern NM... Modest height falls are forecast across the region as a broad upper trough persists across much of the central U.S. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to rotate through northwesterly flow aloft and will support areas of convection through the period. At the surface, a weak surface low may develop over western NE/KS, while generally surface troughing extending into southeast CO/northeast NM. Boundary-layer moisture will be modest across much of the region given prior cold frontal passages in the past few days. However, south/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints expanding northward across the southern High Plains into portions of KS/NE. Cool temperatures aloft and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates spreading into KS/NE will support a corridor of moderate instability from the Raton Mesa vicinity north/northeast into western KS/central NE by mid-afternoon. Some forecast guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across parts of SD/NE. This introduces uncertainty in convective evolution/timing, as this activity may slowly increase in intensity through the day. Or, convection may dissipate and leave an outflow boundary across central NE. Confidence is higher that convection will develop further south into western KS and the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the surface through during the afternoon. Vertical shear will support initial high-based supercells. Steep low-level lapse rates and high temperature-dewpoint spreads amid mostly weak low-level flow will support strong/severe outflow winds. This may allow for storm consolidation into an east/southeast propagating MCS during the evening. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will increase. In the absence of a strong low-level jet during the evening, eastward extent of the severe risk should diminish into central KS with time. Initial supercell storms also will pose a risk for large hail, with some hail up to baseball size possible. With southward extent, vertical shear and large-scale ascent will weaken, and organized thunderstorm coverage should be somewhat lower into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Showers may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of NY and New England in a warm advection regime ahead of a cold front. This may limit heating and low-level destabilization into the afternoon. As a result, severe potential may be limited despite 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a very moist low-level airmass. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence is too low to add unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Thunderstorms are expected with southward extent into eastern VA and the Carolinas ahead of the surface cold front. While stronger destabilization is expected with southward extent, vertical shear will be very weak. However, steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support a couple of strong wet microbursts in otherwise disorganized storm clusters. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Central Plains into eastern NM... Modest height falls are forecast across the region as a broad upper trough persists across much of the central U.S. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to rotate through northwesterly flow aloft and will support areas of convection through the period. At the surface, a weak surface low may develop over western NE/KS, while generally surface troughing extending into southeast CO/northeast NM. Boundary-layer moisture will be modest across much of the region given prior cold frontal passages in the past few days. However, south/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints expanding northward across the southern High Plains into portions of KS/NE. Cool temperatures aloft and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates spreading into KS/NE will support a corridor of moderate instability from the Raton Mesa vicinity north/northeast into western KS/central NE by mid-afternoon. Some forecast guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across parts of SD/NE. This introduces uncertainty in convective evolution/timing, as this activity may slowly increase in intensity through the day. Or, convection may dissipate and leave an outflow boundary across central NE. Confidence is higher that convection will develop further south into western KS and the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the surface through during the afternoon. Vertical shear will support initial high-based supercells. Steep low-level lapse rates and high temperature-dewpoint spreads amid mostly weak low-level flow will support strong/severe outflow winds. This may allow for storm consolidation into an east/southeast propagating MCS during the evening. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will increase. In the absence of a strong low-level jet during the evening, eastward extent of the severe risk should diminish into central KS with time. Initial supercell storms also will pose a risk for large hail, with some hail up to baseball size possible. With southward extent, vertical shear and large-scale ascent will weaken, and organized thunderstorm coverage should be somewhat lower into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Showers may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of NY and New England in a warm advection regime ahead of a cold front. This may limit heating and low-level destabilization into the afternoon. As a result, severe potential may be limited despite 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a very moist low-level airmass. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence is too low to add unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Thunderstorms are expected with southward extent into eastern VA and the Carolinas ahead of the surface cold front. While stronger destabilization is expected with southward extent, vertical shear will be very weak. However, steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support a couple of strong wet microbursts in otherwise disorganized storm clusters. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Central Plains into eastern NM... Modest height falls are forecast across the region as a broad upper trough persists across much of the central U.S. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to rotate through northwesterly flow aloft and will support areas of convection through the period. At the surface, a weak surface low may develop over western NE/KS, while generally surface troughing extending into southeast CO/northeast NM. Boundary-layer moisture will be modest across much of the region given prior cold frontal passages in the past few days. However, south/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints expanding northward across the southern High Plains into portions of KS/NE. Cool temperatures aloft and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates spreading into KS/NE will support a corridor of moderate instability from the Raton Mesa vicinity north/northeast into western KS/central NE by mid-afternoon. Some forecast guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across parts of SD/NE. This introduces uncertainty in convective evolution/timing, as this activity may slowly increase in intensity through the day. Or, convection may dissipate and leave an outflow boundary across central NE. Confidence is higher that convection will develop further south into western KS and the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the surface through during the afternoon. Vertical shear will support initial high-based supercells. Steep low-level lapse rates and high temperature-dewpoint spreads amid mostly weak low-level flow will support strong/severe outflow winds. This may allow for storm consolidation into an east/southeast propagating MCS during the evening. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will increase. In the absence of a strong low-level jet during the evening, eastward extent of the severe risk should diminish into central KS with time. Initial supercell storms also will pose a risk for large hail, with some hail up to baseball size possible. With southward extent, vertical shear and large-scale ascent will weaken, and organized thunderstorm coverage should be somewhat lower into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Showers may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of NY and New England in a warm advection regime ahead of a cold front. This may limit heating and low-level destabilization into the afternoon. As a result, severe potential may be limited despite 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a very moist low-level airmass. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence is too low to add unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Thunderstorms are expected with southward extent into eastern VA and the Carolinas ahead of the surface cold front. While stronger destabilization is expected with southward extent, vertical shear will be very weak. However, steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support a couple of strong wet microbursts in otherwise disorganized storm clusters. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Central Plains into eastern NM... Modest height falls are forecast across the region as a broad upper trough persists across much of the central U.S. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to rotate through northwesterly flow aloft and will support areas of convection through the period. At the surface, a weak surface low may develop over western NE/KS, while generally surface troughing extending into southeast CO/northeast NM. Boundary-layer moisture will be modest across much of the region given prior cold frontal passages in the past few days. However, south/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints expanding northward across the southern High Plains into portions of KS/NE. Cool temperatures aloft and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates spreading into KS/NE will support a corridor of moderate instability from the Raton Mesa vicinity north/northeast into western KS/central NE by mid-afternoon. Some forecast guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across parts of SD/NE. This introduces uncertainty in convective evolution/timing, as this activity may slowly increase in intensity through the day. Or, convection may dissipate and leave an outflow boundary across central NE. Confidence is higher that convection will develop further south into western KS and the southern High Plains in the vicinity of the surface through during the afternoon. Vertical shear will support initial high-based supercells. Steep low-level lapse rates and high temperature-dewpoint spreads amid mostly weak low-level flow will support strong/severe outflow winds. This may allow for storm consolidation into an east/southeast propagating MCS during the evening. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will increase. In the absence of a strong low-level jet during the evening, eastward extent of the severe risk should diminish into central KS with time. Initial supercell storms also will pose a risk for large hail, with some hail up to baseball size possible. With southward extent, vertical shear and large-scale ascent will weaken, and organized thunderstorm coverage should be somewhat lower into eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Showers may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of NY and New England in a warm advection regime ahead of a cold front. This may limit heating and low-level destabilization into the afternoon. As a result, severe potential may be limited despite 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a very moist low-level airmass. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence is too low to add unconditional severe probabilities at this time. Thunderstorms are expected with southward extent into eastern VA and the Carolinas ahead of the surface cold front. While stronger destabilization is expected with southward extent, vertical shear will be very weak. However, steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support a couple of strong wet microbursts in otherwise disorganized storm clusters. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051704
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Aletta, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of southern CA and the Central CA Coast -- where a persistent midlevel ridge to the north continues to promote very hot conditions and locally breezy offshore winds. However, these conditions generally appear too localized and/or marginal for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of southern CA and the Central CA Coast -- where a persistent midlevel ridge to the north continues to promote very hot conditions and locally breezy offshore winds. However, these conditions generally appear too localized and/or marginal for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of southern CA and the Central CA Coast -- where a persistent midlevel ridge to the north continues to promote very hot conditions and locally breezy offshore winds. However, these conditions generally appear too localized and/or marginal for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of southern CA and the Central CA Coast -- where a persistent midlevel ridge to the north continues to promote very hot conditions and locally breezy offshore winds. However, these conditions generally appear too localized and/or marginal for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of southern CA and the Central CA Coast -- where a persistent midlevel ridge to the north continues to promote very hot conditions and locally breezy offshore winds. However, these conditions generally appear too localized and/or marginal for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of southern CA and the Central CA Coast -- where a persistent midlevel ridge to the north continues to promote very hot conditions and locally breezy offshore winds. However, these conditions generally appear too localized and/or marginal for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of southern CA and the Central CA Coast -- where a persistent midlevel ridge to the north continues to promote very hot conditions and locally breezy offshore winds. However, these conditions generally appear too localized and/or marginal for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of southern CA and the Central CA Coast -- where a persistent midlevel ridge to the north continues to promote very hot conditions and locally breezy offshore winds. However, these conditions generally appear too localized and/or marginal for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The previous forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of southern CA and the Central CA Coast -- where a persistent midlevel ridge to the north continues to promote very hot conditions and locally breezy offshore winds. However, these conditions generally appear too localized and/or marginal for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more