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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of the central Plains. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the CONUS with the exception of the West Coast. A shortwave trough is expected to move into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a high pressure system will shift eastward into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Around the western flank of this anticyclone, moisture will return northward. A modest surface low will develop in the vicinity of the NE/CO/KS border, though models have some disagreement on how deep this low will become. The main focus for thunderstorm development will be near this surface low and farther east along a weak warm front/theta-e boundary. ...Central/eastern Nebraska...northwest/north-central Kansas... Thunderstorm development is expected during the mid/late afternoon. Upper 50s F dewpoints are expected to support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (with some areas perhaps near 2000 J/kg). Relatively cold temperatures aloft (around -12 C at 500 mb) and northwesterly mid/high-level flow with 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote some initial risk for supercells capable of large hail (some 2+ inches). Given the larger temperature-dewpoint spreads, upscale growth will likely occur later in the convective cycle. Severe wind gusts would become more common as this process unfolds. There is some uncertainty with regard to the most favorable area for potential MCS development. There is some signal in guidance that this could occur in western Kansas where slightly greater low-level moisture will be present, mid-level lapse rates will be steeper, and the low-level jet will be focused. Significant severe gusts are possible with an organized MCS, but confidence in placement remain quite low at this time. ...Southern High Plains... With the surface high helping to push moisture back into the southern Rockies and parts of West Texas, a few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon. Convection/outflow is possible prior to the D2/Saturday period on Friday afternoon/evening in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As a result, there is some uncertainty as to how far east the severe threat will reach. Shear will be weaker this far south, but steep low/mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of severe winds and isolated large hail in the strongest storms. ...Mid-Atlantic... A weak cold front will move through the region during the afternoon/evening. While a richly moist (70+ F dewpoints) airmass will be in place, the stronger mid-level winds will generally be displaced farther to the northwest. Furthermore, mid-level heights will be near neutral and convergence along the front will be rather weak. Most model guidance continues to suggest limited storm coverage for those reasons. No highlights will be added, but a strong storm or two remains possible. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of the central Plains. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the CONUS with the exception of the West Coast. A shortwave trough is expected to move into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a high pressure system will shift eastward into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Around the western flank of this anticyclone, moisture will return northward. A modest surface low will develop in the vicinity of the NE/CO/KS border, though models have some disagreement on how deep this low will become. The main focus for thunderstorm development will be near this surface low and farther east along a weak warm front/theta-e boundary. ...Central/eastern Nebraska...northwest/north-central Kansas... Thunderstorm development is expected during the mid/late afternoon. Upper 50s F dewpoints are expected to support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (with some areas perhaps near 2000 J/kg). Relatively cold temperatures aloft (around -12 C at 500 mb) and northwesterly mid/high-level flow with 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote some initial risk for supercells capable of large hail (some 2+ inches). Given the larger temperature-dewpoint spreads, upscale growth will likely occur later in the convective cycle. Severe wind gusts would become more common as this process unfolds. There is some uncertainty with regard to the most favorable area for potential MCS development. There is some signal in guidance that this could occur in western Kansas where slightly greater low-level moisture will be present, mid-level lapse rates will be steeper, and the low-level jet will be focused. Significant severe gusts are possible with an organized MCS, but confidence in placement remain quite low at this time. ...Southern High Plains... With the surface high helping to push moisture back into the southern Rockies and parts of West Texas, a few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon. Convection/outflow is possible prior to the D2/Saturday period on Friday afternoon/evening in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As a result, there is some uncertainty as to how far east the severe threat will reach. Shear will be weaker this far south, but steep low/mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of severe winds and isolated large hail in the strongest storms. ...Mid-Atlantic... A weak cold front will move through the region during the afternoon/evening. While a richly moist (70+ F dewpoints) airmass will be in place, the stronger mid-level winds will generally be displaced farther to the northwest. Furthermore, mid-level heights will be near neutral and convergence along the front will be rather weak. Most model guidance continues to suggest limited storm coverage for those reasons. No highlights will be added, but a strong storm or two remains possible. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of the central Plains. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the CONUS with the exception of the West Coast. A shortwave trough is expected to move into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a high pressure system will shift eastward into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Around the western flank of this anticyclone, moisture will return northward. A modest surface low will develop in the vicinity of the NE/CO/KS border, though models have some disagreement on how deep this low will become. The main focus for thunderstorm development will be near this surface low and farther east along a weak warm front/theta-e boundary. ...Central/eastern Nebraska...northwest/north-central Kansas... Thunderstorm development is expected during the mid/late afternoon. Upper 50s F dewpoints are expected to support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (with some areas perhaps near 2000 J/kg). Relatively cold temperatures aloft (around -12 C at 500 mb) and northwesterly mid/high-level flow with 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote some initial risk for supercells capable of large hail (some 2+ inches). Given the larger temperature-dewpoint spreads, upscale growth will likely occur later in the convective cycle. Severe wind gusts would become more common as this process unfolds. There is some uncertainty with regard to the most favorable area for potential MCS development. There is some signal in guidance that this could occur in western Kansas where slightly greater low-level moisture will be present, mid-level lapse rates will be steeper, and the low-level jet will be focused. Significant severe gusts are possible with an organized MCS, but confidence in placement remain quite low at this time. ...Southern High Plains... With the surface high helping to push moisture back into the southern Rockies and parts of West Texas, a few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon. Convection/outflow is possible prior to the D2/Saturday period on Friday afternoon/evening in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As a result, there is some uncertainty as to how far east the severe threat will reach. Shear will be weaker this far south, but steep low/mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of severe winds and isolated large hail in the strongest storms. ...Mid-Atlantic... A weak cold front will move through the region during the afternoon/evening. While a richly moist (70+ F dewpoints) airmass will be in place, the stronger mid-level winds will generally be displaced farther to the northwest. Furthermore, mid-level heights will be near neutral and convergence along the front will be rather weak. Most model guidance continues to suggest limited storm coverage for those reasons. No highlights will be added, but a strong storm or two remains possible. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage expected in parts of the central Plains. Large hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the CONUS with the exception of the West Coast. A shortwave trough is expected to move into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a high pressure system will shift eastward into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Around the western flank of this anticyclone, moisture will return northward. A modest surface low will develop in the vicinity of the NE/CO/KS border, though models have some disagreement on how deep this low will become. The main focus for thunderstorm development will be near this surface low and farther east along a weak warm front/theta-e boundary. ...Central/eastern Nebraska...northwest/north-central Kansas... Thunderstorm development is expected during the mid/late afternoon. Upper 50s F dewpoints are expected to support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (with some areas perhaps near 2000 J/kg). Relatively cold temperatures aloft (around -12 C at 500 mb) and northwesterly mid/high-level flow with 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote some initial risk for supercells capable of large hail (some 2+ inches). Given the larger temperature-dewpoint spreads, upscale growth will likely occur later in the convective cycle. Severe wind gusts would become more common as this process unfolds. There is some uncertainty with regard to the most favorable area for potential MCS development. There is some signal in guidance that this could occur in western Kansas where slightly greater low-level moisture will be present, mid-level lapse rates will be steeper, and the low-level jet will be focused. Significant severe gusts are possible with an organized MCS, but confidence in placement remain quite low at this time. ...Southern High Plains... With the surface high helping to push moisture back into the southern Rockies and parts of West Texas, a few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon. Convection/outflow is possible prior to the D2/Saturday period on Friday afternoon/evening in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As a result, there is some uncertainty as to how far east the severe threat will reach. Shear will be weaker this far south, but steep low/mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of severe winds and isolated large hail in the strongest storms. ...Mid-Atlantic... A weak cold front will move through the region during the afternoon/evening. While a richly moist (70+ F dewpoints) airmass will be in place, the stronger mid-level winds will generally be displaced farther to the northwest. Furthermore, mid-level heights will be near neutral and convergence along the front will be rather weak. Most model guidance continues to suggest limited storm coverage for those reasons. No highlights will be added, but a strong storm or two remains possible. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon across parts of the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of eastern New Mexico. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region today, as southwest flow remains at mid-levels from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. At the surface, a low will move across Lower Michigan, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will yield pockets of moderate instability across parts of the region by afternoon. Some high-resolution model solutions suggest that a line segment will move eastward across parts of middle Tennessee and central Kentucky this morning, and into the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a marginal severe threat with storms that move into areas with sufficient instability. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. This potential should extend northward into the eastern Great Lakes and into parts of Pennsylvania and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Concerning the details of today's convective scenario, confidence is low mainly due to the wide variance of instability among the models. ...Eastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the southern and central Plains today. Near this trough, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico. Upslope flow will be in place across eastern New Mexico, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be near 60 F. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico by early afternoon, with other storms developing in the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings during the mid to late afternoon in eastern New Mexico near the axis of strongest instability, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 30 and 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking above 8 C/km. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat. Rotating cells could produce isolated severe hail. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible with the stronger cells. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon across parts of the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of eastern New Mexico. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region today, as southwest flow remains at mid-levels from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. At the surface, a low will move across Lower Michigan, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will yield pockets of moderate instability across parts of the region by afternoon. Some high-resolution model solutions suggest that a line segment will move eastward across parts of middle Tennessee and central Kentucky this morning, and into the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a marginal severe threat with storms that move into areas with sufficient instability. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. This potential should extend northward into the eastern Great Lakes and into parts of Pennsylvania and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Concerning the details of today's convective scenario, confidence is low mainly due to the wide variance of instability among the models. ...Eastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the southern and central Plains today. Near this trough, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico. Upslope flow will be in place across eastern New Mexico, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be near 60 F. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico by early afternoon, with other storms developing in the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings during the mid to late afternoon in eastern New Mexico near the axis of strongest instability, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 30 and 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking above 8 C/km. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat. Rotating cells could produce isolated severe hail. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible with the stronger cells. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon across parts of the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of eastern New Mexico. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region today, as southwest flow remains at mid-levels from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. At the surface, a low will move across Lower Michigan, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will yield pockets of moderate instability across parts of the region by afternoon. Some high-resolution model solutions suggest that a line segment will move eastward across parts of middle Tennessee and central Kentucky this morning, and into the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a marginal severe threat with storms that move into areas with sufficient instability. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. This potential should extend northward into the eastern Great Lakes and into parts of Pennsylvania and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Concerning the details of today's convective scenario, confidence is low mainly due to the wide variance of instability among the models. ...Eastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the southern and central Plains today. Near this trough, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico. Upslope flow will be in place across eastern New Mexico, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be near 60 F. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico by early afternoon, with other storms developing in the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings during the mid to late afternoon in eastern New Mexico near the axis of strongest instability, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 30 and 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking above 8 C/km. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat. Rotating cells could produce isolated severe hail. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible with the stronger cells. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon across parts of the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Isolated severe storms may also occur across parts of eastern New Mexico. ...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region today, as southwest flow remains at mid-levels from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. At the surface, a low will move across Lower Michigan, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will yield pockets of moderate instability across parts of the region by afternoon. Some high-resolution model solutions suggest that a line segment will move eastward across parts of middle Tennessee and central Kentucky this morning, and into the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a marginal severe threat with storms that move into areas with sufficient instability. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. This potential should extend northward into the eastern Great Lakes and into parts of Pennsylvania and west-central New York. A hail threat may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler and mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Concerning the details of today's convective scenario, confidence is low mainly due to the wide variance of instability among the models. ...Eastern New Mexico... A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the southern and central Plains today. Near this trough, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico. Upslope flow will be in place across eastern New Mexico, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be near 60 F. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico by early afternoon, with other storms developing in the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings during the mid to late afternoon in eastern New Mexico near the axis of strongest instability, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 30 and 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking above 8 C/km. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat. Rotating cells could produce isolated severe hail. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible with the stronger cells. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/05/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050511
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Aletta, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Water from the Washington Aqueduct was cloudier than usual due to algae blooms in the Potomac River. Algae flourished in the river on account of runoff from farmland, heat and drought reducing the river flow. Despite the boil water advisory, the water was always safe to drink. NBC4 Washington (D.C.), July 4, 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 02:34:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 03:29:01 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 After maintaining a relatively well-organized structure on satellite imagery for most of the day Thursday, Aletta appears a bit less impressive over the past few hours. The latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 30-36 kt, while the subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB range from 30-35 kt. At this time, there is no reason to change the initial intensity estimate of 35 kt, especially given that we should receive some ASCAT data within the next couple of hours. Although Aletta is currently located within an environment of low vertical wind shear, the cyclone is forecast to reach cooler waters and move into a drier airmass over the next 12 h or so. While it is possible that Aletta could maintain its intensity for another 6 to 12 h, weakening is expected to commence by Friday morning, if not sooner. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models show Aletta losing its convection by late Friday, and the new NHC forecast calls for Aletta to become a remnant low in 24 h. Aletta has been moving a bit more quickly to the northwest or 305 degrees at 12 kt. A turn to the west is expected tonight. As Aletta loses its convection, it will be steered westward to west-southwestward by the low-level flow before it dissipates on Saturday. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit farther north and faster to the west, based mainly on the faster motion observed over the past 6 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.6N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.4N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z 18.0N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Aletta Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 ...ALETTA FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 108.0W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 108.0 West. Aletta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two. Aletta is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate by this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

...ALETTA FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM MST Thu Jul 4 the center of Aletta was located near 18.5, -108.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.6N 109.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.4N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 108.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening in parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest surface analysis has a cold front analyzed from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central/northeast Oklahoma and western Missouri. A moist airmass is located along the front, with surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to the upper 70s F. RAP analysis has MLCAPE near the front ranging from around 2000 J/kg in the southeast Texas Panhandle to near 4000 J/kg in northeast Oklahoma. WSR-88D VWPs near Oklahoma City and Tulsa generally have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This, along with the moderate to strong instability should be enough to continue a marginal severe threat this evening. The marginal threat is expected to develop into the southern Ozarks over the next few hours, as new convection initiates. The stronger cells near the instability axis could also be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving through the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass is located ahead of the front, with a surface low over the upper Mississippi Valley. A cold front extends south-southwestward through northeastern and central Iowa. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are generally are in the 65 to 70 F range, with RAP analysis showing MLCAPE from 1000 to 1200 J/kg. Thunderstorms are ongoing along and near an axis of instability. Near this axis, the WSR-88D VWP at Lacrosse, Wisconsin has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This, along with the amount of instability should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening. A few isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening in parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest surface analysis has a cold front analyzed from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central/northeast Oklahoma and western Missouri. A moist airmass is located along the front, with surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to the upper 70s F. RAP analysis has MLCAPE near the front ranging from around 2000 J/kg in the southeast Texas Panhandle to near 4000 J/kg in northeast Oklahoma. WSR-88D VWPs near Oklahoma City and Tulsa generally have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This, along with the moderate to strong instability should be enough to continue a marginal severe threat this evening. The marginal threat is expected to develop into the southern Ozarks over the next few hours, as new convection initiates. The stronger cells near the instability axis could also be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving through the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass is located ahead of the front, with a surface low over the upper Mississippi Valley. A cold front extends south-southwestward through northeastern and central Iowa. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are generally are in the 65 to 70 F range, with RAP analysis showing MLCAPE from 1000 to 1200 J/kg. Thunderstorms are ongoing along and near an axis of instability. Near this axis, the WSR-88D VWP at Lacrosse, Wisconsin has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This, along with the amount of instability should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening. A few isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 07/05/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 4 23:45:02 UTC 2024.