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MD 1536 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Areas affected...Portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042201Z - 050000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms with a few severe gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail are possible this afternoon across portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing this afternoon near the Texas/New Mexico border and across the southern Texas Panhandle in an environment characterized by large dewpoint depressions and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles per surface observations and short-term RAP forecasts. These storms are also situated well south of the best deep layer shear in an environment with 20 kts or less of effective bulk shear. Due to the large evaporative cooling potential with the inverted-V thermodynamic profiles and steep low-level lapse rates, some downburst activity is possible, and this may result in a few severe gusts. Additionally, with the deep CAPE profile, most of which is above the freezing level, some marginally severe hail is possible with some of the stronger storms. With time, storms expected to continue moving slowly to the east with short-term guidance dissipating most convection near sunset. Additionally, some storm clustering and merging of cold pools may occur, and this may also result in a risk for severe gusts. ..Supinie/Hart.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33020444 34200365 34620281 34820159 34850011 34609975 34289968 33400077 32520152 30810237 30140331 30180393 31550452 33020444 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042303
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Aletta, located a couple of hundred miles
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

MD 1537 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1537 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Areas affected...Southern Missouri...northern Arkansas...far southern Illinois...far western Kentucky...and far northwestern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042237Z - 042330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few severe storms damaging gusts and maybe some marginally severe hail are possible across portions of southern Missouri, northern Arkansas, far southern Illinois, far western Kentucky, and far northwestern Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed along a weak cold front across portions of southern Missouri and southern Illinois and along a surface pressure trough across portions of northeastern Arkansas. These storms are along the southern periphery of the better mid-level flow, with 30-35 kts of effective bulk shear in the environment, enough for multicells or weak supercells. Short-term RAP forecast thermodynamic profiles also show somewhat steep low-level lapse rates and modestly high precipitable water values, which may result in wet microbursts with a few damaging gusts. Due to straight hodographs with weak low-level shear and modest deep-layer shear with deep CAPE profiles, some marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Clustering of storms may be limited given sparse convective coverage, which may limit the wind damage potential, and storms may wane near sunset. ..Supinie/Hart.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37369317 37059412 36699456 36049449 35369422 35159212 35089083 35438972 35718918 36048867 36688836 37368834 37598871 37718934 37369317 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge, exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through early next week. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely within dry fuels. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall, widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of UT into portions of AZ and western CO. ...California... Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at times. Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should increase the fire danger through next week. ..Lyons.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 4 21:55:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1535 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND VICINITY.
Mesoscale Discussion 1535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Areas affected...from southwest Oklahoma into southwest Missouri...and vicinity. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041910Z - 042145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form after 20Z, with scattered strong to possibly severe downbursts. DISCUSSION...A surface trough and wind shift extend roughly from northwest TX across central OK and into southwest MO. Low pressure was noted over southwest OK, with substantial moisture convergence along the boundary. GPS PWAT values remain at over 1.75" over most of the area, even extending as far southwest as Childress, TX. While midlevel lapse rates are modest, low-level lapse rates are steepening, resulting in moderate instability overall. Towering CU near the boundary should form into storms over the next few hours, with multicellular storm mode supporting brief strong to severe outflows. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 07/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35179534 34489786 34190004 34470033 35090011 35609958 36419755 37189566 37589467 37569414 37419387 37099372 36699368 36079380 35799395 35549428 35179534 Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO 25 SSW LEX TO 40 NW JKL TO 35 W HTS. ..MOORE..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC021-025-063-065-079-085-093-109-123-129-151-153-155-165-175- 189-197-205-237-042240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYLE BREATHITT ELLIOTT ESTILL GARRARD GRAYSON HARDIN JACKSON LARUE LEE MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION MENIFEE MORGAN OWSLEY POWELL ROWAN WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO 25 SSW LEX TO 40 NW JKL TO 35 W HTS. ..MOORE..07/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC021-025-063-065-079-085-093-109-123-129-151-153-155-165-175- 189-197-205-237-042240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYLE BREATHITT ELLIOTT ESTILL GARRARD GRAYSON HARDIN JACKSON LARUE LEE MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION MENIFEE MORGAN OWSLEY POWELL ROWAN WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 505 SEVERE TSTM IN KY 041655Z - 042300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana Northern and Central Kentucky * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms should strengthen further this afternoon as it moves eastward while posing a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds up to 55-70 mph. A brief tornado or two embedded within the line may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Louisville KY to 80 miles east of Lexington KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 20:32:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 21:28:58 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone this afternoon consists of a small area of deep convection over the center, with a curved band over the western portion of the circulation. Various satellite estimates today indicate the compact system could be stronger than previously estimated. Recent UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates (including ADT, AiDT, DPRINT, and SATCON) range from 31-35 kt. SAB and TAFB provided T2.0 final-T numbers, although SAB did report a T2.5 data-T number. Also, there was an earlier RCM-1 SAR overpass that showed tropical-storm-force winds within the compact circulation. Given the small size of the system, these higher estimates appear believable, and so the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Aletta. Aletta is moving northwestward (315 degrees) at around 9 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday as the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. Aletta is likely at or near its peak intensity. The bulk of the intensity guidance shows weakening over the next day or two while the storm moves into a drier environment over cooler SSTs. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show convection could collapse overnight or early Friday, and the low is forecast to spin down and dissipate later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.9N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 042031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Aletta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ALETTA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 107.0W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Aletta was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 107.0 West. Aletta is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or two. Aletta is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart