Aggregator

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 08:37:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 09:28:53 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050836 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 Data from the ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers, which both provided a good sampling of Aletta's circulation, revealed that the system no longer had tropical-storm-force winds. The scatterometer data also showed that the center of the tropical cyclone is displaced to the west of the remaining area of deep convection, presumably due to easterly vertical wind shear. Accordingly, the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression on this advisory. During the next day or two, Aletta should be under the influence of increasingly dry air with continued moderate shear, while moving over marginal sea surface temperatures. Therefore the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours, and dissipate soon thereafter. This is similar to the previous official intensity forecast. Aletta is turning to the left with an initial motion estimate of 290/10 kt. The weakening cyclone should turn westward to west-southwestward within the low-level flow until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 18.7N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 18.7N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 18.3N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 17.9N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050836 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 11(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050835 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.7W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.7W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.7N 109.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 111.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Aletta Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 ...ALETTA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 108.7W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Aletta was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 108.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Aletta should become a remnant low tonight and dissipate by this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...ALETTA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 AM MST Fri Jul 5 the center of Aletta was located near 18.7, -108.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying early morning convection. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas... Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS, 15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas. ...South Texas... Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying early morning convection. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas... Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS, 15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas. ...South Texas... Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying early morning convection. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas... Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS, 15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas. ...South Texas... Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying early morning convection. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas... Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS, 15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas. ...South Texas... Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying early morning convection. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas... Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS, 15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas. ...South Texas... Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning. ..Wendt.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A broad trough should be situated across the central CONUS through the day today with northwest flow across the western CONUS, and an embedded mid-level speed max should begin impinging upon the Pacific Northwest overnight tonight. Despite the delayed arrival of the speed max, some breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) are expected to develop this afternoon across western parts of the Snake River plain in Idaho along with RH near 5-15% and dry fuels. For this reason, an Elevated area is included across this region. Additionally, some transient, localized Elevated conditions may occur in the lee of Cascade ranges across central Washington with downslope winds. However, RH may be a bit marginal (15-25%), and the strongest winds are expected to last less than 3 hours. For these reasons, have held off on Elevated highlights in this area. ..Supinie.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more