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Mandatory water use restrictions were in effect for people in Walhalla where excessive water use was causing problems with water pressure. WYFF-TV NBC 4 (Greenville, S.C.), July 5, 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 20:33:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 21:29:01 GMT

MD 1540 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1540 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051928Z - 052130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage expected to increase this afternoon, a few of which may produce severe hail/wind gusts, though watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show a decrease in cloud cover throughout the late morning/early afternoon across most of eastern New Mexico, while strong heating has been occurring along/near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Surface observations show easterly upslope flow into region, with dew point temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s. This combination is yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, with isolated storms beginning to develop in proximity to the Sangre de Cristo range. Storm coverage should continue to increase, particularly in northeast New Mexico, as continued heating/destabilization occurs, with multicells emerging as the predominant mode. Deep-layer shear is notably weak across the state, approaching 30-35 kt with northern extent. Therefore, a few storms may organize into supercell structures, at least briefly, with the potential for severe hail/wind gusts. With time, storm coverage should expand southward, though coverage of the severe threat is anticipated to remain low. Given these expectations, watch issuance is unlikely for the region at this time. ..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 35240553 36100539 36780516 36950467 36990390 36680333 36160311 35090298 34300303 33660312 33400333 33330376 33340436 33660492 34250527 35240553 Read more

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052032 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 Aletta is no longer producing organized deep convection. If this current convective trend continues, Aletta will become a remnant low later this evening. ASCAT-B data at 1712 UTC showed Aletta still has a well-defined center, but indicated its maximum winds have decreased to 25 kt. The depression's initial motion estimate is 260/10 kt. Aletta should generally remain on this heading with a similar forward speed for the next day or so until it dissipates. Environmental conditions around Aletta do not appear to be conducive for the redevelopment of organized deep convection and all models indicate that the cyclone will continue to weaken from this point. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.6N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 18.3N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 18.3N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Aletta Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 ...ALETTA WEAKENS FURTHER... ...WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 110.8W ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Aletta was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 110.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so until Aletta dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue, and Aletta will likely dissipate in about a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...ALETTA WEAKENS FURTHER... ...WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Jul 5 the center of Aletta was located near 18.6, -110.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 052030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.8W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.8W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.3N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and minimal changes were made with this update. A Critical area was considered in southeast OR, where 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected amid single-digit RH. However, given near-normal fuels and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low for an upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, locally breezy/gusty surface winds will overlap continued hot/dry conditions across portions of Southern CA and the Central CA Coast. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, these conditions appear too localized and/or brief for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad trough is expected to remain situated over the central CONUS through the day on Saturday, with a mid-level speed max embedded in the northwesterly flow traversing the northwestern CONUS. The surface response to this speed max ought to promote breezy conditions (gusts to 30-35 mph) with strong vertical mixing and low RH (generally 5-15%) across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Fuels in the area are at least modestly receptive, particularly in the Snake River plain in Idaho, where a Critical area has been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed over western portions of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk areas. These changes are based on the current location of ongoing convection, as well as the position of the surface wind shift. Strong gusts remain the primary hazard with thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians and NY into this evening. See previous discussion below for more details. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across northeast NM and eastern MT. For information on short term severe potential across northeast NM, reference MCD 1540. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024/ ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. Read more