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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening across parts of the middle/upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Isolated damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary severe hazard. ...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Appalachians... Bands of linear strong-to severe storms continue to organize and modestly intensify at midday across the Cumberland Plateau northward toward the Ohio River/far southern Ohio near a surface boundary, although cirrus/cloud debris is more prevalent with northward extent. In the presence of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and modest-strength westerlies, the main potential for damaging winds through early evening should focus from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far western Virginia, and possibly also east/northeast Tennessee. Farther north, more uncertainty and potentially lower strong/severe storm coverage will extend from Lower Michigan across the southern/Lower Great Lakes into Pennsylvania and New York. A hail threat may also exist across parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler with steeper mid-level lapse rates. Even so, localized damaging gusts will be the main severe risk overall. ...Eastern New Mexico... The region will be on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Strong heating and moist low-level upslope flow (dewpoints near 60 F) will contribute to initially isolated storms preferentially developing over the higher terrain by early to mid-afternoon. Model guidance shows MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. Some organization of storms is possible, mainly via multicells and perhaps a few supercell structures. Isolated severe gusts/hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms. ...Montana... A southeastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough over southern Alberta will continue southeastward over northern/eastern Montana, and toward the adjacent northern High Plains by tonight. Ample heating and 40s/lower 50s F surface dewpoints will contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central/eastern Montana. A few strong to locally severe storms may be capable of hail and locally severe wind gusts for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before storm intensity subsides later in the evening. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 07/05/2024 Read more

Sunflowers were in bloom at Dorothea Dix Park, but the plants were about three feet tall because rainfall has been below normal. The Raleigh News & Observer Online (N.C.), July 5, 2024

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0506 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0506 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Much of North Carolina’s corn appeared to be a total loss, according to agronomists. The overall condition of the crop was “very, very poor,” as described by a regional agronomist for the North Carolina Department of Agriculture. Although the first cutting of hay was great, there has been little rainfall since then, so a second cutting was not looking promising. In addition, pasture conditions were very poor statewide. Some growers were already feeding freshly cut hay to their livestock, which could lead to a hay shortage this coming winter. Soybeans, tobacco, peanuts, and cotton were all suffering in the hot, dry weather, but could still benefit from rain. SF|Successful Farming (Des Moines, Iowa), June 28, 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 14:49:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 15:29:03 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 051442 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 Multiple microwave images between 08 and 12 UTC indicated that Aletta still has a well-defined center, and it has continued to produce a small area of deep convection near that center. Objective and subjective intensity estimates range from around 25 to 35 kt, so the estimated maximum winds are still 30 kt for this advisory. Aletta is moving westward (270/10kt) and a west-southwestward turn is expected later this morning. The small depression is located in a marginal environment, and a combination of decreasing SSTs below 26 deg C, drier surrounding air, and increasing shear should cause Aletta to lose its deep convection later today. In fact, all dynamical guidance suggests that Aletta will become a remnant low within the next 6 to 18 h. The NHC forecast conservatively maintains Aletta as a tropical cyclone on the longer side of that range, but still shows gradual weakening through the forecast period. After it becomes a remnant low, Aletta is expected to turn back toward the west and dissipate within another day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.8N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.5N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.2N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 18.2N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 051442 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 23 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 051442 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.8W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.8W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 111.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 112.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.2N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 051442 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Aletta Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 ...ALETTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 109.8W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Aletta was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 109.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is expected today. Aletta will likely become a remnant low later today or tonight and dissipate shortly thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...ALETTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM MST Fri Jul 5 the center of Aletta was located near 18.8, -109.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.