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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central Great Plains this afternoon into this evening. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Great Plains/Upper Midwest... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within a belt of cyclonic mid-level flow centered over the Upper Midwest, will move southeastward from the western Dakotas/WY into eastern SD/NE today. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast CO into NE as a cold front pushes southeast across the central High Plains. By afternoon, several pockets of moderate instability will likely be in place from western Kansas northeastward into central and eastern Nebraska. Convection is first expected to develop to the north of the surface low in north-central Nebraska, with cell coverage gradually expanding southwestward into western Kansas. Several clusters of storms are expected to persist into the early to mid evening along the instability corridor from west-central Kansas into central eastern Nebraska. Relatively steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7 to 8 C/km and a wind profile supporting storm organization, will potentially favor a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into one or two linear clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep any severe threat marginal. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains. If confidence can increase on the development/placement of a linear cluster across northwest TX by early this evening, a focused area of perhaps locally greater threat for severe gusts may occur over parts of the South Plains/Caprock vicinity in TX. Nonetheless, weaker large-scale ascent in the southern High Plains should limit overall storm coverage/intensity. ...Northeast... The 06/00z MPAS-HT-NSSL model run seemed to reasonably depict storm development earlier this morning over southeast NY moving into CT. In wake of this activity as it moves northeast and dissipates later this morning, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the lower Hudson Valley into upstate NY and farther northeast into southern ME. A mid-level vorticity lobe over southwestern ON and near Lake Erie this morning, will move northeast into the St. Lawrence Valley later today. Ample deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy will support organized cells despite weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/06/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061110
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability will remain low during the extended period. There may be some increase in severe potential associated with the remnants of TC Beryl mid to late next week. With some uncertainty in the track and overall strength of the low-level wind fields, confidence in an organized severe threat is low. Upper-level ridging is also expected to expand eastward out of the West and encompass much of the CONUS by late next week. The strongest flow aloft will be pushed northward along the Canadian border. There are weak model signals for convection within parts of the northern Plains late next week, but confidence in the magnitude of risk is too low this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability will remain low during the extended period. There may be some increase in severe potential associated with the remnants of TC Beryl mid to late next week. With some uncertainty in the track and overall strength of the low-level wind fields, confidence in an organized severe threat is low. Upper-level ridging is also expected to expand eastward out of the West and encompass much of the CONUS by late next week. The strongest flow aloft will be pushed northward along the Canadian border. There are weak model signals for convection within parts of the northern Plains late next week, but confidence in the magnitude of risk is too low this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability will remain low during the extended period. There may be some increase in severe potential associated with the remnants of TC Beryl mid to late next week. With some uncertainty in the track and overall strength of the low-level wind fields, confidence in an organized severe threat is low. Upper-level ridging is also expected to expand eastward out of the West and encompass much of the CONUS by late next week. The strongest flow aloft will be pushed northward along the Canadian border. There are weak model signals for convection within parts of the northern Plains late next week, but confidence in the magnitude of risk is too low this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability will remain low during the extended period. There may be some increase in severe potential associated with the remnants of TC Beryl mid to late next week. With some uncertainty in the track and overall strength of the low-level wind fields, confidence in an organized severe threat is low. Upper-level ridging is also expected to expand eastward out of the West and encompass much of the CONUS by late next week. The strongest flow aloft will be pushed northward along the Canadian border. There are weak model signals for convection within parts of the northern Plains late next week, but confidence in the magnitude of risk is too low this far in advance. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of southeast Texas into western Louisiana on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress into the Midwest/Great Lakes regions on Monday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of this trough, but heights will be near neutral or slightly rising with time and surface features will be quite disorganized. Stronger storms should remain very isolated. An upper-level ridge along the West Coast will slowly shift eastward. TC Beryl, currently forecast by NHC to be transitioning to a tropical depression Monday into Tuesday, will move through parts of eastern Texas. Strong low-level winds and rich moisture advection are expected within East Texas into parts of western Louisiana. ...Parts of East Texas and western Louisiana... mid to upper 70s F dewpoints will advect onshore as TC Beryl moves into the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. Strong low-level winds should extend into parts of western Louisiana with time. Enlarged low-level hodographs will favor a few rotating storms near the TC circulation and perhaps along pseudo warm front/theta-e boundary to its east. A few tornadoes will be possible, particularly in parts of southeast Texas into the Sabine River vicinity. ..Wendt.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of southeast Texas into western Louisiana on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress into the Midwest/Great Lakes regions on Monday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of this trough, but heights will be near neutral or slightly rising with time and surface features will be quite disorganized. Stronger storms should remain very isolated. An upper-level ridge along the West Coast will slowly shift eastward. TC Beryl, currently forecast by NHC to be transitioning to a tropical depression Monday into Tuesday, will move through parts of eastern Texas. Strong low-level winds and rich moisture advection are expected within East Texas into parts of western Louisiana. ...Parts of East Texas and western Louisiana... mid to upper 70s F dewpoints will advect onshore as TC Beryl moves into the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. Strong low-level winds should extend into parts of western Louisiana with time. Enlarged low-level hodographs will favor a few rotating storms near the TC circulation and perhaps along pseudo warm front/theta-e boundary to its east. A few tornadoes will be possible, particularly in parts of southeast Texas into the Sabine River vicinity. ..Wendt.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of southeast Texas into western Louisiana on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress into the Midwest/Great Lakes regions on Monday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of this trough, but heights will be near neutral or slightly rising with time and surface features will be quite disorganized. Stronger storms should remain very isolated. An upper-level ridge along the West Coast will slowly shift eastward. TC Beryl, currently forecast by NHC to be transitioning to a tropical depression Monday into Tuesday, will move through parts of eastern Texas. Strong low-level winds and rich moisture advection are expected within East Texas into parts of western Louisiana. ...Parts of East Texas and western Louisiana... mid to upper 70s F dewpoints will advect onshore as TC Beryl moves into the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. Strong low-level winds should extend into parts of western Louisiana with time. Enlarged low-level hodographs will favor a few rotating storms near the TC circulation and perhaps along pseudo warm front/theta-e boundary to its east. A few tornadoes will be possible, particularly in parts of southeast Texas into the Sabine River vicinity. ..Wendt.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of southeast Texas into western Louisiana on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress into the Midwest/Great Lakes regions on Monday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible ahead of this trough, but heights will be near neutral or slightly rising with time and surface features will be quite disorganized. Stronger storms should remain very isolated. An upper-level ridge along the West Coast will slowly shift eastward. TC Beryl, currently forecast by NHC to be transitioning to a tropical depression Monday into Tuesday, will move through parts of eastern Texas. Strong low-level winds and rich moisture advection are expected within East Texas into parts of western Louisiana. ...Parts of East Texas and western Louisiana... mid to upper 70s F dewpoints will advect onshore as TC Beryl moves into the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. Strong low-level winds should extend into parts of western Louisiana with time. Enlarged low-level hodographs will favor a few rotating storms near the TC circulation and perhaps along pseudo warm front/theta-e boundary to its east. A few tornadoes will be possible, particularly in parts of southeast Texas into the Sabine River vicinity. ..Wendt.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the central CONUS, with a shortwave trough and associated speed max traversing the northwestern CONUS through the day today. The surface response to this shortwave trough should produce breezy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin (wind gusts generally 30-35 mph) overlapping strong mixing and low RH values (generally 5-15% RH). Fuels in the region are somewhat receptive, particularly in the Snake River valley in Idaho, where a Critical area has been maintained. Some Critical conditions are possible across parts of southeast Oregon and southwest Wyoming. However fuels in this region are less receptive, and therefore have not expanded the Critical are to these regions. In addition, some transient Elevated to Critical conditions are possible in the southern California coastal range and Transverse Ranges. However, despite low RH and generally receptive fuels, any gusty winds will be localized and transient. Therefore, no Elevated highlights have been included in this region. ..Supinie.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will be located across much of the CONUS on Sunday. Shortwave perturbations within this broader cyclonic flow are expected to impact portions of the central/southern Plains during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a somewhat complex surface pattern is expected. A convective outflow reinforced weak warm front appears to likely set up roughly along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A modest surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. A weak dryline feature will extend southward from this low. Along the middle/upper Texas Gulf Coast, low-level wind fields will increase with the approach of TC Beryl late Sunday night into Monday. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of western/central Kansas Sunday morning, but is expected to weaken as the low-level jet decreases in strength. Dewpoints south of the boundary/outflow are expected to be in the upper 60s F. Heating of this moist airmass will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop by early/mid afternoon. Convergence along the boundary will increase as the surface low to the west deepens. Mid-level ascent by mid/late afternoon will also aid in increasing convective coverage. A few initial supercells are possible given 40-50 kts of effective shear parallel to the boundary, but upscale growth appears likely to occur quickly. Along the dryline in the eastern Texas Panhandle, storm coverage may be less, but 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary will promote a few supercells. The degree and timing of upscale growth along the dryline is less clear and could be modulated by outflow from storms near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. In terms of hazards, steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate effective shear, and initially favorable storm modes will bring a risk of large hail. Some hail could exceed 2 inches, but uncertainty of supercell coverage and the expected quick upscale growth limits confidence. Near the surface low, a tornado is possible. Again, this potential is likely to remain low given short duration of discrete storm modes. The main hazard will be severe/damaging winds as convection grows upscale. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... TC Beryl is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast per the latest NHC forecast. Low-level wind fields to the right of the track will become favorable for low-level rotation, especially where upper 70s F dewpoints infiltrate the coastal counties. A risk for tornadoes will exist from near the Corpus Christie area to the Sabine River. This threat will increase late Sunday night into Monday morning. ...Southeast Colorado into Southwest Kansas... Some surface moisture will be maintained into these areas. Dewpoints in the mid 50s F seem probable up against the terrain in southeast Colorado with slightly greater amounts in southwest Kansas. Storm initiation is most likely within the terrain with a few storms being capable of severe winds and marginally severe hail. Coverage is less certain along the outflow into Kansas, but low severe probabilities will be maintained for possible development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will be located across much of the CONUS on Sunday. Shortwave perturbations within this broader cyclonic flow are expected to impact portions of the central/southern Plains during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a somewhat complex surface pattern is expected. A convective outflow reinforced weak warm front appears to likely set up roughly along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A modest surface low will deepen in the southern High Plains. A weak dryline feature will extend southward from this low. Along the middle/upper Texas Gulf Coast, low-level wind fields will increase with the approach of TC Beryl late Sunday night into Monday. ...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas... Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of western/central Kansas Sunday morning, but is expected to weaken as the low-level jet decreases in strength. Dewpoints south of the boundary/outflow are expected to be in the upper 60s F. Heating of this moist airmass will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop by early/mid afternoon. Convergence along the boundary will increase as the surface low to the west deepens. Mid-level ascent by mid/late afternoon will also aid in increasing convective coverage. A few initial supercells are possible given 40-50 kts of effective shear parallel to the boundary, but upscale growth appears likely to occur quickly. Along the dryline in the eastern Texas Panhandle, storm coverage may be less, but 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary will promote a few supercells. The degree and timing of upscale growth along the dryline is less clear and could be modulated by outflow from storms near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. In terms of hazards, steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate effective shear, and initially favorable storm modes will bring a risk of large hail. Some hail could exceed 2 inches, but uncertainty of supercell coverage and the expected quick upscale growth limits confidence. Near the surface low, a tornado is possible. Again, this potential is likely to remain low given short duration of discrete storm modes. The main hazard will be severe/damaging winds as convection grows upscale. ...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast... TC Beryl is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast per the latest NHC forecast. Low-level wind fields to the right of the track will become favorable for low-level rotation, especially where upper 70s F dewpoints infiltrate the coastal counties. A risk for tornadoes will exist from near the Corpus Christie area to the Sabine River. This threat will increase late Sunday night into Monday morning. ...Southeast Colorado into Southwest Kansas... Some surface moisture will be maintained into these areas. Dewpoints in the mid 50s F seem probable up against the terrain in southeast Colorado with slightly greater amounts in southwest Kansas. Storm initiation is most likely within the terrain with a few storms being capable of severe winds and marginally severe hail. Coverage is less certain along the outflow into Kansas, but low severe probabilities will be maintained for possible development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 07/06/2024 Read more