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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A large-scale ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Great Basin through much of the extended forecast period. This will promote a continuation of above-average temperatures and low RH across much of the West, where fuels continue to dry. On the western periphery of the ridge, a belt of moderate midlevel southerly flow (with subtle/embedded northward-moving perturbations) will persist across CA into western NV, favoring periods of breezy surface winds in terrain-favored areas each day. While this will likely yield elevated to locally critical conditions across the region (given the hot/dry conditions), confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add probabilities at this time. However, highlights may eventually be needed as confidence in the exact timing/evolution of the embedded perturbations/stronger midlevel flow increases. Farther north, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday -- between the large-scale ridge and a midlevel trough moving into British Columbia. As a result, surface winds will strengthen amid a hot/dry boundary layer along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for these areas, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed as forecast confidence increases. Enhanced midlevel west-southwesterlies will persist across the Northwest through the remainder of the forecast period, with the potential for continued fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A large-scale ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Great Basin through much of the extended forecast period. This will promote a continuation of above-average temperatures and low RH across much of the West, where fuels continue to dry. On the western periphery of the ridge, a belt of moderate midlevel southerly flow (with subtle/embedded northward-moving perturbations) will persist across CA into western NV, favoring periods of breezy surface winds in terrain-favored areas each day. While this will likely yield elevated to locally critical conditions across the region (given the hot/dry conditions), confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add probabilities at this time. However, highlights may eventually be needed as confidence in the exact timing/evolution of the embedded perturbations/stronger midlevel flow increases. Farther north, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday -- between the large-scale ridge and a midlevel trough moving into British Columbia. As a result, surface winds will strengthen amid a hot/dry boundary layer along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for these areas, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed as forecast confidence increases. Enhanced midlevel west-southwesterlies will persist across the Northwest through the remainder of the forecast period, with the potential for continued fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A large-scale ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Great Basin through much of the extended forecast period. This will promote a continuation of above-average temperatures and low RH across much of the West, where fuels continue to dry. On the western periphery of the ridge, a belt of moderate midlevel southerly flow (with subtle/embedded northward-moving perturbations) will persist across CA into western NV, favoring periods of breezy surface winds in terrain-favored areas each day. While this will likely yield elevated to locally critical conditions across the region (given the hot/dry conditions), confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to add probabilities at this time. However, highlights may eventually be needed as confidence in the exact timing/evolution of the embedded perturbations/stronger midlevel flow increases. Farther north, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday -- between the large-scale ridge and a midlevel trough moving into British Columbia. As a result, surface winds will strengthen amid a hot/dry boundary layer along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for these areas, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed as forecast confidence increases. Enhanced midlevel west-southwesterlies will persist across the Northwest through the remainder of the forecast period, with the potential for continued fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ITR TO 40 ESE GLD TO 35 SE MCK TO 35 WNW BUB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544 ..MOORE..07/06/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...DDC...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC051-063-065-071-089-101-109-123-135-137-141-147-163-165-171- 179-183-195-199-203-062240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELLIS GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY JEWELL LANE LOGAN MITCHELL NESS NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS RUSH SCOTT SHERIDAN SMITH TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC001-019-035-041-047-059-061-065-073-077-079-081-083-093-099- 121-125-129-137-143-163-169-175-181-185-062240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY CUSTER DAWSON FILLMORE Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ITR TO 15 SE GLD TO 30 SSW MCK TO 25 NNE MCK TO 30 E LBF TO 35 WNW BUB. ..JEWELL..07/06/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...DDC...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-065-071-089-101-109-137-147-163-171-179-183-193-195- 199-203-062140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY JEWELL LANE LOGAN NORTON PHILLIPS ROOKS SCOTT SHERIDAN SMITH THOMAS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC001-019-035-041-047-059-061-063-065-073-077-079-081-083-093- 099-121-125-129-137-143-145-163-169-175-181-185-062140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY CUSTER DAWSON FILLMORE FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HARLAN HOWARD Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...20Z Update... ...Central Plains... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including several intense supercells, continue to evolve across southwest/south-central NE and northwest KS, just to the east/southeast of a surface low centered about 30 miles east of IML (in southwest NE). Moderate westerly flow and associated vertical shear in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to support robust storm development into south-central/southeast NE north-central/northeast KS. Large to very large hail has been the primary risk so far, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure is still anticipated with severe gusts then becoming the dominant hazard. ...Eastern CO/Western KS into far northwest NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles... Thunderstorm development is still possible this afternoon and evening amid modest low-level convergence across the region. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates should result in outflow-dominant storms capable of a few damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ...Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Critical area in southern/central UT -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Critical area in southern/central UT -- based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to remain over the central CONUS with a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max traversing the Great Basin and southwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday. This will promote gusty winds and strong mixing with low RH on Sunday afternoon across parts of the Great Basin, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH in the 5-10% range. Fuels in this region are at least modestly receptive, and therefore an Elevated area has been introduced. Inside this area, some pockets of more receptive fuels across southern Utah are apparent, and therefore a Critical area has also been added. Elsewhere, localized, transient Elevated conditions may occur in gaps in both the coastal range of southern California and the Cascades in Oregon. However, confidence in sustained breezy conditions is not high enough to introduce highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more