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MD 1548 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509... FOR LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1548 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Areas affected...Lower Missouri Valley region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509... Valid 070056Z - 070200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat continues this evening. DISCUSSION...MCS that developed over south-central NE has matured as it propagates east along the NE/KS border toward southwest IA/northwest MO. Latest diagnostic data depicts a broad reservoir of buoyancy (1000-1500 MLCAPE) that has yet to be overturned immediately ahead of this complex. With the LLJ beginning to strengthen over northeast KS there is reasonable confidence this MCS should advance beyond the MO River before any appreciable weakening occurs. Damaging winds are the primary risk with this convection. ..Darrow.. 07/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40829765 40799515 39349511 39399765 40829765 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will continue this evening across parts of the central Plains. A few marginally severe storms will be possible further west into the southern and central High Plains, and northward into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Southern and Central High Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the eastern Dakotas, with a shortwave trough extending southward from the low into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota, along which a marginal severe threat will continue this evening. Further southeastward into the warm sector, a couple convective systems are ongoing along and to the east of the shortwave trough. An organized line segment is located in far southeast Nebraska, along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in this area have southeasterly winds at the surface, with winds gradually veering to westerly in the mid-levels. This wind profile will continue to be favorable for linear organization, and a wind-damage threat is expected to continue in the vicinity of far southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri this evening. Hail will also likely accompany the stronger cells embedded in this line. Further to the southwest into west-central Kansas, a severe convective cluster is also ongoing along and to the east of a north-to-south corridor of moderate instability. Near this area, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This convection is located just to the north of the Dodge City WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This shear environment should be enough to continue a threat for supercells this evening. Supercells will likely be capable of isolated large hail. A few severe wind gusts will also be possible. The ongoing convective systems in Kansas and Nebraska are expected to continue into the late evening, but the severe threat should become more isolated with time as instability gradually decreases across the central Plains. ..Broyles.. 07/07/2024 Read more

WW 0510 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 510 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/07/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-069-083-097-145-151-185-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRAY HODGEMAN KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0510 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 510 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/07/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-069-083-097-145-151-185-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRAY HODGEMAN KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0510 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 510 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/07/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-069-083-097-145-151-185-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRAY HODGEMAN KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0510 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 510 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..07/07/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-069-083-097-145-151-185-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRAY HODGEMAN KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 510 SEVERE TSTM KS 062240Z - 070500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 510 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Kansas * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 540 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will sag southeastward across the watch area this evening, with a persistent threat of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south southwest of Garden City KS to 25 miles north northeast of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 508...WW 509... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0509 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SLN TO 10 N BIE TO 10 ESE OMA. ..MOORE..07/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-145-070140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT PAGE KSC005-013-027-043-085-117-131-149-161-201-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY DONIPHAN JACKSON MARSHALL NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY WASHINGTON MOC005-087-070140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON HOLT Read more

WW 0509 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SLN TO 10 N BIE TO 10 ESE OMA. ..MOORE..07/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-145-070140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT PAGE KSC005-013-027-043-085-117-131-149-161-201-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY DONIPHAN JACKSON MARSHALL NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY WASHINGTON MOC005-087-070140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON HOLT Read more

WW 0509 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SLN TO 10 N BIE TO 10 ESE OMA. ..MOORE..07/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-145-070140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT PAGE KSC005-013-027-043-085-117-131-149-161-201-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY DONIPHAN JACKSON MARSHALL NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY WASHINGTON MOC005-087-070140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON HOLT Read more

WW 0509 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SLN TO 10 N BIE TO 10 ESE OMA. ..MOORE..07/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-145-070140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT PAGE KSC005-013-027-043-085-117-131-149-161-201-070140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY DONIPHAN JACKSON MARSHALL NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY WASHINGTON MOC005-087-070140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON HOLT Read more

WW 509 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 062220Z - 070500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 509 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Iowa Northeast Kansas Northwest Missouri Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 520 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms over south-central Nebraska will track eastward through the evening across the watch area. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible with the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Concordia KS to 25 miles east of Falls City NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 508... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE ITR TO 55 SW HLC TO 35 NNW RSL TO 45 W CNK TO 35 SSW HSI TO 25 SSW EAR TO 35 S BBW TO 35 SSE ONL. ..MOORE..07/06/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...DDC...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC051-063-071-089-101-123-135-141-163-165-171-195-203-062340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELLIS GOVE GREELEY JEWELL LANE MITCHELL NESS OSBORNE ROOKS RUSH SCOTT TREGO WICHITA NEC001-019-035-059-077-079-081-093-099-121-125-129-143-163-169- 181-185-062340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FILLMORE GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD KEARNEY MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS POLK SHERMAN THAYER WEBSTER YORK Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE ITR TO 55 SW HLC TO 35 NNW RSL TO 45 W CNK TO 35 SSW HSI TO 25 SSW EAR TO 35 S BBW TO 35 SSE ONL. ..MOORE..07/06/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...DDC...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC051-063-071-089-101-123-135-141-163-165-171-195-203-062340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELLIS GOVE GREELEY JEWELL LANE MITCHELL NESS OSBORNE ROOKS RUSH SCOTT TREGO WICHITA NEC001-019-035-059-077-079-081-093-099-121-125-129-143-163-169- 181-185-062340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FILLMORE GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD KEARNEY MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS POLK SHERMAN THAYER WEBSTER YORK Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE ITR TO 55 SW HLC TO 35 NNW RSL TO 45 W CNK TO 35 SSW HSI TO 25 SSW EAR TO 35 S BBW TO 35 SSE ONL. ..MOORE..07/06/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...DDC...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC051-063-071-089-101-123-135-141-163-165-171-195-203-062340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELLIS GOVE GREELEY JEWELL LANE MITCHELL NESS OSBORNE ROOKS RUSH SCOTT TREGO WICHITA NEC001-019-035-059-077-079-081-093-099-121-125-129-143-163-169- 181-185-062340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FILLMORE GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD KEARNEY MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS POLK SHERMAN THAYER WEBSTER YORK Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE ITR TO 55 SW HLC TO 35 NNW RSL TO 45 W CNK TO 35 SSW HSI TO 25 SSW EAR TO 35 S BBW TO 35 SSE ONL. ..MOORE..07/06/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...DDC...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC051-063-071-089-101-123-135-141-163-165-171-195-203-062340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELLIS GOVE GREELEY JEWELL LANE MITCHELL NESS OSBORNE ROOKS RUSH SCOTT TREGO WICHITA NEC001-019-035-059-077-079-081-093-099-121-125-129-143-163-169- 181-185-062340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FILLMORE GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD KEARNEY MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS POLK SHERMAN THAYER WEBSTER YORK Read more

WW 508 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 061725Z - 070100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 508 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Northern Kansas Central and Southern Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and intensify, initially near/north of the Interstate 80 corridor in Nebraska early this afternoon, but also across northwest Kansas. Storms should become more scattered/widespread by late afternoon, especially across south-central Nebraska, where large hail and damaging wind potential may be most focused. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles south of Imperial NE to 35 miles east of Grand Island NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Guyer Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 6 23:46:17 UTC 2024.

MD 1545 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1545 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Areas affected...the Adirondacks into Parts of northern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062152Z - 062345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some damaging wind threat is apparent this afternoon across parts of the Adirondacks into northern new England. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, some of which are displaying supercell characteristics on radar, are ongoing this afternoon across parts of the Adirondacks into northern New England. These storms are situated in a fairly healthy mid- and upper-level jet for July, with 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear. Thermodynamically, the environment is fairly moist, with 1.6-1.8" of precipitable water, 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, and pockets of 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates. All of this suggests the continued potential for supercells with damaging gusts due to large water loading. Some clustering may occur with time, and this may increase the damaging wind threat with storms. However, a watch is not anticipated at this time due to the expected sparse coverage of damaging gusts. ..Supinie/Hart.. 07/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43907535 45067466 45107175 45917057 45926959 45416874 44806874 44606888 43916941 42607105 42157262 41997439 42627538 43907535 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart