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WW 588 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY OH 011710Z - 020000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky Far Southwest Ohio * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over southern Illinois should further intensify this afternoon as it spreads eastward across parts of the Lower Ohio Valley. Scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph should be the main threat, but an line-embedded tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 20 miles east northeast of Lexington KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1791 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KY INTO SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHWEST OH...AND NORTHERN TN
Mesoscale Discussion 1791 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Central/eastern KY into southeast IN...southwest OH...and northern TN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588... Valid 012215Z - 012345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind will move eastward into early evening. Downstream watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS currently moving across central KY continues to show signs of organization, with a well-defined cold pool and evidence of a relatively strong rear-inflow jet from regional VWPs. However, recent measured gusts have generally been subsevere, in the 35-45 kt range. While relatively weak low-level flow and deep-layer shear may continue to limit severe-wind potential to some extent, very warm, moist, and unstable downstream conditions (with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) will continue to support a threat of at least isolated damaging wind as this MCS continues eastward into the early evening. As the MCS approaches the eastern edge of WW 588, downstream watch issuance will be possible, especially if there is any uptick in measured gusts and/or overall organization and intensity of the system. ..Dean/Smith.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 39258548 39338447 38998333 38198274 36958326 36208445 36258577 36438693 36638744 36938755 37318647 37978556 39258548 Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0589 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0589 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 589 SEVERE TSTM KY VA WV 012245Z - 020400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Southwest Virginia Southwest West Virginia * Effective this Thursday night from 645 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A squall line will move west to east across much of the Watch area this evening. Scattered strong to severe gusts (55-60 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles east northeast of Huntington WV to 35 miles south southeast of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 588... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Smith Read more

MD 1790 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1790 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico into the western Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012015Z - 012245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage away from higher terrain is slowly increasing across northeastern New Mexico and portions of the western OK/TX Panhandles. Thermodynamic conditions are favorable for strong to severe outflow winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been ongoing for much of the afternoon within the Sangre de Cristo mountains and Raton Mesa within a weak upslope flow regime, but have remained relatively benign. However, more recent convective initiation is noted along a subtle surface trough/confluence zone draped to the southeast across northeast NM into the TX Panhandle. Temperatures climbing into the upper 90s and low 100s are eroding any lingering MLCIN, which should continue to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development along the surface boundary over the next few hours. These hot conditions are driving dewpoint depressions upwards of 30-50 F, implying that a deep, well-mixed boundary layer is in place across the region - especially along and south of the boundary - that will promote strong downdraft accelerations. Weak flow aloft will limit storm organization and longevity, but strong to severe outflow winds appear possible. Some recent CAM solutions hint that a cold-pool driven cluster may emerge across northeast NM later this afternoon/evening and propagate to the southeast. This would pose a somewhat more widespread wind threat, but this scenario is conditional on achieving sufficient convective coverage and cold pool amalgamation. Other solutions suggest that a storm or two may migrate far enough east to intensify within a more moist/buoyant air mass. However, this potential appears limited given a high likelihood for the development of undercutting outflows. Given low confidence in these scenarios, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Bunting.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36600508 36660494 36790471 36890427 36930410 36960361 36940314 36770277 36520237 36230212 35970195 35610184 35430181 35110186 34980199 34810229 34650268 34560334 34580378 34690415 34950440 35250467 35630505 36060525 36300524 36410513 36600508 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1789 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KY
Mesoscale Discussion 1789 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...southern Indiana into central KY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588... Valid 011951Z - 012115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging gusts of 50-65 mph remain possible across southern Indiana into central Kentucky this afternoon. DISCUSSION...An organized bow will continue to track east across Kentuckiana this afternoon. While the intensity of the bow has decreased somewhat compared to earlier, the VWP from KVWX shows rear inflow around 40-50 kt. Additional discrete cells have also developed ahead of the bow. Re-intensification of the bow may occur as storm mergers/interactions occur, and damaging gust potential may increase over the next hour or so. The downstream airmass remains very warm/moist, with a corridor of MCLAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg noted in 19z mesoanalysis. Vertical shear remains somewhat modest and may be limiting factor in producing a more widespread damaging wind swath. Nevertheless, isolated to widely scattered gusts in the 50-65 mph range appear likely over the next few hours. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 39128701 39168582 38748523 38008528 37478566 37168620 37118687 37168764 37578844 37838838 38238795 39128701 Read more

MD 1788 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1788 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern/central Indiana into western Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011919Z - 012115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern/central Indiana into western Ohio over the next couple of hours. These storms will have potential to produce isolated damaging gusts around 50-65 mph and sporadic hail to near 1 inch diameter. Timing and coverage of severe risk is uncertain, but this area is being monitored for possible watch issuance within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus within a broader area of mid/high cloudiness across northern/central Indiana. More extensive cumulus development is noted further downstream across western Ohio where clearer skies have persisted. Heating into the mid/upper 80s F amid 70s F dewpoints is supporting moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg). Midlevel inhibition has also mostly been eroded as a convectively enhanced vorticity max impinges on the region. Continued heating/destabilization should support thunderstorm development within the next hour or two. Vertical shear is somewhat modest, with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes noted in regional VWP data and in mesoanalysis/point forecast soundings. This should be sufficient for organized cells/clusters. Steepening low-level lapse rates amid a favorable combination of instability and shear will foster damaging wind potential. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but a few more intense updrafts may be capable of marginally severe hail as well. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 39408563 39538614 39858645 40178663 40388657 40568638 40828337 40598298 40018298 39748310 39518357 39408429 39388514 39408563 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 20:49:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 21:22:49 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 583 WTPZ43 KNHC 012046 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 Carlotta has changed little in organization since the last advisory, with satellite imagery showing a well-defined central dense overcast with a complex of outer bands in the eastern semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are mainly in the 45-55 kt range, and they have nudged upward a little over the past six hours. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. The initial motion is now 285/10 kt. Carlotta is on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge located over the southwestern United States and the adjacent northeastern Pacific. The ridge is expected to strengthen during the next day or two, and this should steer the cyclone more westward during this time. After about 60 h, Carlotta should move west-northwestward as it approaches a weakness in the mid-level part of the ridge caused by a large trough over the north Central Pacific. The track guidance has again shifted northward, and the new forecast track, which is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model, has also been shifted northward. Carlotta is expected to remain in an area of light shear for the next 48 h, with sea surface temperatures slowly decreasing along the forecast track during that time. Thus strengthening is expected, although the intensity guidance is forecasting less strengthening than on the previous cycles. Based on this, the forecast peak intensity has been decreased slightly, and the 85-kt peak intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance. After 48 h, increasing westerly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause Carlotta to weaken for the remainder of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.5N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.2N 115.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 18.4N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.6N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 18.9N 122.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.2N 123.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 012044 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 13 82(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLA CLARION 50 2 71(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA CLARION 64 X 39(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 1 13(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 48(62) 8(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 51(54) 17(71) 1(72) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 16(34) X(34) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 18(30) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN