Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move across southern California into Oregon through the D1 period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will be in place. Increasing moisture, in combination with forcing from the midlevel disturbance, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the high terrain of California into portions of central Oregon and western Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move across southern California into Oregon through the D1 period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will be in place. Increasing moisture, in combination with forcing from the midlevel disturbance, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the high terrain of California into portions of central Oregon and western Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move across southern California into Oregon through the D1 period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will be in place. Increasing moisture, in combination with forcing from the midlevel disturbance, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the high terrain of California into portions of central Oregon and western Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move across southern California into Oregon through the D1 period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will be in place. Increasing moisture, in combination with forcing from the midlevel disturbance, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the high terrain of California into portions of central Oregon and western Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move across southern California into Oregon through the D1 period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will be in place. Increasing moisture, in combination with forcing from the midlevel disturbance, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the high terrain of California into portions of central Oregon and western Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move across southern California into Oregon through the D1 period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will be in place. Increasing moisture, in combination with forcing from the midlevel disturbance, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the high terrain of California into portions of central Oregon and western Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. Other widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will undergo at least some amplification through this period. By Saturday night, this is forecast to include a building ridge across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and adjacent portions of northwestern Canada. Downstream, flow across the Minnesota international border vicinity through the upper Great Lakes may trend broadly cyclonic, to the southwest of a significant deep-layer cyclone slowly progressing across the eastern shores of Hudson Bay into northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a weak short wave perturbation may suppress ridging across the northern Intermountain Region. Otherwise, ridging appears likely to remain prominent across much of the West into the Great Plains, with an embedded high becoming centered over the Four Corners states. As downstream ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic builds northwestward toward the Mid Atlantic coast, troughing between the ridges is forecast to become increasingly sheared across the southern Appalachians through southern New England. At the same time, a tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean vicinity may begin impacting the Florida Straits and southern Florida Peninsula late Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this regime, some lower/mid-tropospheric drying appears likely to continue spreading southward through the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, with seasonably high moisture content (including a plume of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches) largely confined to the southeast of the southern Appalachians through the New England coast. However, lingering low-level moisture beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated-mixed layer air may contribute large potential instability ahead of a cold front advancing southward through the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Mid/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Although the approaching mid-level trough is forecast to become increasingly sheared and weaken, the height gradient between the troughing and the downstream building ridge may maintain modest south-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 20-30 kt) to the lee of the Appalachians on Saturday. Beneath this regime, within the lee surface troughing, a moist boundary-layer including 70 F+ dew points appears likely to contribute to large CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg with daytime heating. Given weak mid-level inhibition, it appears that this will support considerable thunderstorm development, with strongest storms posing a risk for producing damaging wind gusts, aided by heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum. ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Convective development appears likely to largely hinge on one or two subtle perturbations progressing through northwesterly flow near the base/southwestern flank of the large-scale mid-level troughing. Substantive spread exists among the various model output, including the convection allowing guidance. While it appears that thunderstorm development may remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage, shear beneath the northwesterly mid-level regime will be sufficient for supercells and one or two widely scattered upscale growing clusters with potential to produce strong wind gusts may not be out of the question Saturday evening. ...Florida... Beneath a warm mid-level environment, models (NAM in particular) suggest that precipitation preceding the developing tropical perturbation may stabilize the boundary layer across much of the interior peninsula Saturday through Saturday night. While trends will need to continue to be monitored, the risk for severe weather through this period currently appears low. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. Other widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will undergo at least some amplification through this period. By Saturday night, this is forecast to include a building ridge across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and adjacent portions of northwestern Canada. Downstream, flow across the Minnesota international border vicinity through the upper Great Lakes may trend broadly cyclonic, to the southwest of a significant deep-layer cyclone slowly progressing across the eastern shores of Hudson Bay into northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a weak short wave perturbation may suppress ridging across the northern Intermountain Region. Otherwise, ridging appears likely to remain prominent across much of the West into the Great Plains, with an embedded high becoming centered over the Four Corners states. As downstream ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic builds northwestward toward the Mid Atlantic coast, troughing between the ridges is forecast to become increasingly sheared across the southern Appalachians through southern New England. At the same time, a tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean vicinity may begin impacting the Florida Straits and southern Florida Peninsula late Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this regime, some lower/mid-tropospheric drying appears likely to continue spreading southward through the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, with seasonably high moisture content (including a plume of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches) largely confined to the southeast of the southern Appalachians through the New England coast. However, lingering low-level moisture beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated-mixed layer air may contribute large potential instability ahead of a cold front advancing southward through the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Mid/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Although the approaching mid-level trough is forecast to become increasingly sheared and weaken, the height gradient between the troughing and the downstream building ridge may maintain modest south-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 20-30 kt) to the lee of the Appalachians on Saturday. Beneath this regime, within the lee surface troughing, a moist boundary-layer including 70 F+ dew points appears likely to contribute to large CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg with daytime heating. Given weak mid-level inhibition, it appears that this will support considerable thunderstorm development, with strongest storms posing a risk for producing damaging wind gusts, aided by heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum. ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Convective development appears likely to largely hinge on one or two subtle perturbations progressing through northwesterly flow near the base/southwestern flank of the large-scale mid-level troughing. Substantive spread exists among the various model output, including the convection allowing guidance. While it appears that thunderstorm development may remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage, shear beneath the northwesterly mid-level regime will be sufficient for supercells and one or two widely scattered upscale growing clusters with potential to produce strong wind gusts may not be out of the question Saturday evening. ...Florida... Beneath a warm mid-level environment, models (NAM in particular) suggest that precipitation preceding the developing tropical perturbation may stabilize the boundary layer across much of the interior peninsula Saturday through Saturday night. While trends will need to continue to be monitored, the risk for severe weather through this period currently appears low. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. Other widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will undergo at least some amplification through this period. By Saturday night, this is forecast to include a building ridge across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and adjacent portions of northwestern Canada. Downstream, flow across the Minnesota international border vicinity through the upper Great Lakes may trend broadly cyclonic, to the southwest of a significant deep-layer cyclone slowly progressing across the eastern shores of Hudson Bay into northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a weak short wave perturbation may suppress ridging across the northern Intermountain Region. Otherwise, ridging appears likely to remain prominent across much of the West into the Great Plains, with an embedded high becoming centered over the Four Corners states. As downstream ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic builds northwestward toward the Mid Atlantic coast, troughing between the ridges is forecast to become increasingly sheared across the southern Appalachians through southern New England. At the same time, a tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean vicinity may begin impacting the Florida Straits and southern Florida Peninsula late Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this regime, some lower/mid-tropospheric drying appears likely to continue spreading southward through the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, with seasonably high moisture content (including a plume of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches) largely confined to the southeast of the southern Appalachians through the New England coast. However, lingering low-level moisture beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated-mixed layer air may contribute large potential instability ahead of a cold front advancing southward through the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Mid/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Although the approaching mid-level trough is forecast to become increasingly sheared and weaken, the height gradient between the troughing and the downstream building ridge may maintain modest south-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 20-30 kt) to the lee of the Appalachians on Saturday. Beneath this regime, within the lee surface troughing, a moist boundary-layer including 70 F+ dew points appears likely to contribute to large CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg with daytime heating. Given weak mid-level inhibition, it appears that this will support considerable thunderstorm development, with strongest storms posing a risk for producing damaging wind gusts, aided by heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum. ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Convective development appears likely to largely hinge on one or two subtle perturbations progressing through northwesterly flow near the base/southwestern flank of the large-scale mid-level troughing. Substantive spread exists among the various model output, including the convection allowing guidance. While it appears that thunderstorm development may remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage, shear beneath the northwesterly mid-level regime will be sufficient for supercells and one or two widely scattered upscale growing clusters with potential to produce strong wind gusts may not be out of the question Saturday evening. ...Florida... Beneath a warm mid-level environment, models (NAM in particular) suggest that precipitation preceding the developing tropical perturbation may stabilize the boundary layer across much of the interior peninsula Saturday through Saturday night. While trends will need to continue to be monitored, the risk for severe weather through this period currently appears low. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. Other widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will undergo at least some amplification through this period. By Saturday night, this is forecast to include a building ridge across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and adjacent portions of northwestern Canada. Downstream, flow across the Minnesota international border vicinity through the upper Great Lakes may trend broadly cyclonic, to the southwest of a significant deep-layer cyclone slowly progressing across the eastern shores of Hudson Bay into northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a weak short wave perturbation may suppress ridging across the northern Intermountain Region. Otherwise, ridging appears likely to remain prominent across much of the West into the Great Plains, with an embedded high becoming centered over the Four Corners states. As downstream ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic builds northwestward toward the Mid Atlantic coast, troughing between the ridges is forecast to become increasingly sheared across the southern Appalachians through southern New England. At the same time, a tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean vicinity may begin impacting the Florida Straits and southern Florida Peninsula late Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this regime, some lower/mid-tropospheric drying appears likely to continue spreading southward through the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, with seasonably high moisture content (including a plume of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches) largely confined to the southeast of the southern Appalachians through the New England coast. However, lingering low-level moisture beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated-mixed layer air may contribute large potential instability ahead of a cold front advancing southward through the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Mid/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Although the approaching mid-level trough is forecast to become increasingly sheared and weaken, the height gradient between the troughing and the downstream building ridge may maintain modest south-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 20-30 kt) to the lee of the Appalachians on Saturday. Beneath this regime, within the lee surface troughing, a moist boundary-layer including 70 F+ dew points appears likely to contribute to large CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg with daytime heating. Given weak mid-level inhibition, it appears that this will support considerable thunderstorm development, with strongest storms posing a risk for producing damaging wind gusts, aided by heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum. ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Convective development appears likely to largely hinge on one or two subtle perturbations progressing through northwesterly flow near the base/southwestern flank of the large-scale mid-level troughing. Substantive spread exists among the various model output, including the convection allowing guidance. While it appears that thunderstorm development may remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage, shear beneath the northwesterly mid-level regime will be sufficient for supercells and one or two widely scattered upscale growing clusters with potential to produce strong wind gusts may not be out of the question Saturday evening. ...Florida... Beneath a warm mid-level environment, models (NAM in particular) suggest that precipitation preceding the developing tropical perturbation may stabilize the boundary layer across much of the interior peninsula Saturday through Saturday night. While trends will need to continue to be monitored, the risk for severe weather through this period currently appears low. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. Other widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will undergo at least some amplification through this period. By Saturday night, this is forecast to include a building ridge across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and adjacent portions of northwestern Canada. Downstream, flow across the Minnesota international border vicinity through the upper Great Lakes may trend broadly cyclonic, to the southwest of a significant deep-layer cyclone slowly progressing across the eastern shores of Hudson Bay into northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a weak short wave perturbation may suppress ridging across the northern Intermountain Region. Otherwise, ridging appears likely to remain prominent across much of the West into the Great Plains, with an embedded high becoming centered over the Four Corners states. As downstream ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic builds northwestward toward the Mid Atlantic coast, troughing between the ridges is forecast to become increasingly sheared across the southern Appalachians through southern New England. At the same time, a tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean vicinity may begin impacting the Florida Straits and southern Florida Peninsula late Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this regime, some lower/mid-tropospheric drying appears likely to continue spreading southward through the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, with seasonably high moisture content (including a plume of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches) largely confined to the southeast of the southern Appalachians through the New England coast. However, lingering low-level moisture beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated-mixed layer air may contribute large potential instability ahead of a cold front advancing southward through the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Mid/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Although the approaching mid-level trough is forecast to become increasingly sheared and weaken, the height gradient between the troughing and the downstream building ridge may maintain modest south-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 20-30 kt) to the lee of the Appalachians on Saturday. Beneath this regime, within the lee surface troughing, a moist boundary-layer including 70 F+ dew points appears likely to contribute to large CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg with daytime heating. Given weak mid-level inhibition, it appears that this will support considerable thunderstorm development, with strongest storms posing a risk for producing damaging wind gusts, aided by heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum. ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Convective development appears likely to largely hinge on one or two subtle perturbations progressing through northwesterly flow near the base/southwestern flank of the large-scale mid-level troughing. Substantive spread exists among the various model output, including the convection allowing guidance. While it appears that thunderstorm development may remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage, shear beneath the northwesterly mid-level regime will be sufficient for supercells and one or two widely scattered upscale growing clusters with potential to produce strong wind gusts may not be out of the question Saturday evening. ...Florida... Beneath a warm mid-level environment, models (NAM in particular) suggest that precipitation preceding the developing tropical perturbation may stabilize the boundary layer across much of the interior peninsula Saturday through Saturday night. While trends will need to continue to be monitored, the risk for severe weather through this period currently appears low. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians Eastward to Atlantic Seaboard... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F in most areas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over a large area. RAP forecast soundings across the moist airmass suggest that lapse rates will become steep in the 0-3 km layer. This will coincide with 0-6 km shear generally around 20 knots or less. This should favor pulse storm development, with a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The threat should be concentrated mainly in the mid to late afternoon. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from the western Texas Panhandle northward into the central High Plains, where MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain, with additional more isolated storms forming in the central High Plains. Forecast soundings along the instability axis this afternoon show very steep low-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with the monsoon, will develop today across much of the Desert Southwest. The greatest potential for severe winds will be across southeast Arizona, where moderate instability is forecast to coincide with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As cells develop in the early afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians Eastward to Atlantic Seaboard... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F in most areas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over a large area. RAP forecast soundings across the moist airmass suggest that lapse rates will become steep in the 0-3 km layer. This will coincide with 0-6 km shear generally around 20 knots or less. This should favor pulse storm development, with a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The threat should be concentrated mainly in the mid to late afternoon. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from the western Texas Panhandle northward into the central High Plains, where MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain, with additional more isolated storms forming in the central High Plains. Forecast soundings along the instability axis this afternoon show very steep low-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with the monsoon, will develop today across much of the Desert Southwest. The greatest potential for severe winds will be across southeast Arizona, where moderate instability is forecast to coincide with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As cells develop in the early afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians Eastward to Atlantic Seaboard... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F in most areas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over a large area. RAP forecast soundings across the moist airmass suggest that lapse rates will become steep in the 0-3 km layer. This will coincide with 0-6 km shear generally around 20 knots or less. This should favor pulse storm development, with a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The threat should be concentrated mainly in the mid to late afternoon. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from the western Texas Panhandle northward into the central High Plains, where MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain, with additional more isolated storms forming in the central High Plains. Forecast soundings along the instability axis this afternoon show very steep low-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with the monsoon, will develop today across much of the Desert Southwest. The greatest potential for severe winds will be across southeast Arizona, where moderate instability is forecast to coincide with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As cells develop in the early afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians Eastward to Atlantic Seaboard... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F in most areas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over a large area. RAP forecast soundings across the moist airmass suggest that lapse rates will become steep in the 0-3 km layer. This will coincide with 0-6 km shear generally around 20 knots or less. This should favor pulse storm development, with a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The threat should be concentrated mainly in the mid to late afternoon. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from the western Texas Panhandle northward into the central High Plains, where MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain, with additional more isolated storms forming in the central High Plains. Forecast soundings along the instability axis this afternoon show very steep low-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with the monsoon, will develop today across much of the Desert Southwest. The greatest potential for severe winds will be across southeast Arizona, where moderate instability is forecast to coincide with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As cells develop in the early afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians Eastward to Atlantic Seaboard... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F in most areas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over a large area. RAP forecast soundings across the moist airmass suggest that lapse rates will become steep in the 0-3 km layer. This will coincide with 0-6 km shear generally around 20 knots or less. This should favor pulse storm development, with a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The threat should be concentrated mainly in the mid to late afternoon. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from the western Texas Panhandle northward into the central High Plains, where MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain, with additional more isolated storms forming in the central High Plains. Forecast soundings along the instability axis this afternoon show very steep low-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with the monsoon, will develop today across much of the Desert Southwest. The greatest potential for severe winds will be across southeast Arizona, where moderate instability is forecast to coincide with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As cells develop in the early afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/02/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020517
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
A broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Marginal environmental
conditions are expected to limit development of this system during
the next couple of days. The low is forecast to meander over open
waters during the next day or so, then move northeastward by late
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is
expected to form from this system during the next day or so, and
thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 805 WTPZ43 KNHC 020246 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 Carlotta continues to hold steady. Geostationary satellite imagery show a healthy central dense overcast with periodic overshooting cloud tops. Recent microwave satellite imagery from AMSR2 and SSMIS reveal a more asymmetric low-level circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 48-61 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The storm is moving at an estimated 285/10 kt along the south side of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The strengthening ridge is expected to turn Carlotta westward within a day or so and steer the storm slightly north of west for the remainder of the forecast period. The official forecast has again shifted slightly northward, largely due to the estimated initial center location, and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus model. While the deep layer vertical wind shear appears to be weak, the microwave satellite imagery suggested Carlotta could be experiencing some moderate mid-level shear. Models indicate the generally conducive environmental and oceanic conditions should allow for additional strengthening within the next day or two. Beyond 48 h, cooling waters and more marginal environmental conditions should weaken Carlotta through the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast and lies near the top of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.9N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.6N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.8N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.1N 121.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 19.4N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 19.7N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 20.2N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci